Incorporating stakeholder decision support needs into an integrated regional Earth system model

A new modeling effort exploring the opportunities, constraints, and interactions between mitigation and adaptation at regional scale is utilizing stakeholder engagement in an innovative approach to guide model development and demonstration, including uncertainty characterization, to effectively inform regional decision making. This project, the integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM), employs structured stakeholder interactions and literature reviews to identify the most relevant adaptation and mitigation alternatives and decision criteria for each regional application of the framework. The information is used to identify important model capabilities and to provide a focus for numerical experiments. This paper presents the stakeholder research results from the first iRESM pilot region. The pilot region includes the Great Lakes Basin in the Midwest portion of the United States as well as other contiguous states. This geographic area (14 states in total) permits cohesive modeling of hydrologic systems while also providing strong gradients in climate, demography, land cover/land use, and energy supply and demand. The results from the stakeholder research indicate that, for this region, iRESM should prioritize addressing adaptation alternatives in the water resources, urban infrastructure, and agriculture sectors, including water conservation, expanded water quality monitoring, altered reservoir releases, lowered water intakes, urban infrastructure upgrades, increased electric power reserves in urban areas, and land use management/crop selection changes. For mitigation in this region, the stakeholder research implies that iRESM should focus on policies affecting the penetration of renewable energy technologies, and the costs and effectiveness of energy efficiency, bioenergy production, wind energy, and carbon capture and sequestration.     

Last Glacial mammals in South America: a new scenario from the Tarija Basin (Bolivia)

The chronology, sedimentary history, and paleoecology of the Tarija Basin (Bolivia), one of the richest Pleistocene mammalian sites in South America, are revised here based on a multidisciplinary study, including stratigraphy, sedimentology, geomorphology, paleontology, isotope geochemistry, and ¹⁴C geochronology. Previous studies have indicated a Middle Pleistocene age for this classic locality. We have been able to obtain a series of ¹⁴C dates encompassing all the fossil-bearing sequences previously studied in the Tarija Basin. The dated layers range in age from about 44,000 to 21,000 radiocarbon years before present (BP), indicating that the Tarija fauna is much younger than previously thought. Glacial advances correlated to marine isotopic stages (MIS) 4 and 2 (ca. 62 and 20 ka BP, respectively) are also documented at the base and at the very top of the Tarija–Padcaya succession, respectively, indicating that the Bolivian Altiplano was not dry but sustained an ice cap during the Last Glacial Maximum. The results of this multidisciplinary study enable us to redefine the chronological limits of the Tarija sequence and of its faunal assemblage and to shift this paleontological, paleoclimatological, and paleoecological framework to the time interval from MIS 4 to MIS 2.     

Time allocation between work and recreation and the associated injury risks among young people

PROBLEM: The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between overall risk of injury and time use patterns between work and active recreation among adolescents and young adults. METHODS: Using a representative sample of 9,795 Canadians aged 15-24 years, a multivariate logistic regression on the likelihood of any medically attended injury was conducted, including sociodemographic, individual, and time factors. RESULTS: Young people who engaged in a combination of high work and high activity hours were twice as likely to sustain a medically attended injury compared to those who worked low hours, but did not participate in any recreational activity. Those respondents who were not in school had a 43% increase in injury risk compared to full-time students. SUMMARY: Our findings suggest that injury risk was not a simple function of fatigue and cumulative exposure time. Our findings suggest the importance of considering time use and the associated injury risk tradeoffs. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Relevant to state and federal work safety policy makers, our findings suggest the importance of understanding where youth might otherwise spend their time if constraint were placed on their employment opportunities, and the associated injury risk tradeoffs must be taken into consideration.     

A direct observation study of nighttime safety belt use in Indiana

INTRODUCTION: Nearly all direct observation studies of safety belt use are conducted exclusively during daylight hours. Recent work has suggested that safety belt use at night may differ from daytime belt use. METHODS: An observational study of nighttime safety belt use, utilizing specialized night vision equipment, was conducted in Indiana surrounding the Click It or Ticket 2006 safety belt mobilization activities. A pre- and a post-mobilization statewide direct observation survey was conducted at night coinciding with daytime safety belt use data collection conducted by the state of Indiana. Daytime and nighttime belt use rates were compared. RESULTS: The comparisons across the mobilization period revealed a significant increase during the day, but a significant decrease at night. Comparisons between daytime and nighttime belt use revealed no overall difference during the pre wave, but a significant difference during the post wave. Finally, many common daytime trends in belt use were also found at night, with the exception of the typical age and seating position effects. DISCUSSION: The mobilization activities had a positive effect on daytime belt use, but no effect on nighttime belt use, likely resulting in the differences between daytime and nighttime belt use observed during the post wave. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The findings of this study suggest that safety belt mobilizations implemented only during the day do not influence nighttime safety belt use. Changes to how these programs are implemented or additional programs specifically targeting belt use at night should be considered, along with continued monitoring of nighttime belt use.     

A new THOR shoulder design: a comparison with volunteers, the Hybrid III, and THOR NT

OBJECTIVE: Since the shoulders are rarely seriously injured in frontal or oblique collisions, they have been given low priority in the development of frontal impact crash test dummies. The shoulder complex geometry and its kinematics are of vital importance for the overall dummy kinematics. The shoulder complex also influences the risk of the safety belt slipping off the shoulder in oblique forward collisions. The first aim of this study was to develop a new 50th percentile male THOR shoulder design, while the second was to compare the new shoulder, mounted on a THOR NT dummy, with volunteer, THOR NT, and Hybrid III range of motion and stiffness data. The third aim was to test the repeatability of the new shoulder during dynamic testing and to see how the design behaves with respect to belt slippage in a 45 degrees far-side collision. METHODS: The new 50th percentile THOR shoulder design was developed with the aid of a shell model of the seated University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI) 50th percentile male with coordinates for joints and bony landmarks (Schneider et al., 1983). The new shoulder design has human-like bony landmarks for the acromion and coracoid processes. The clavicle curvature and length are also made similar to that of a male human, as is the range of motion in the anterior-posterior, superior-inferior, and medial-lateral directions. The new shoulder design was manufactured and tested under the same conditions that T?rnvall et al. (2005b) used to compare the shoulder range of motion for the volunteers, Hybrid III, and THOR Alpha. The new design was also tested in two dynamic test configurations: the first was a 0 degrees full-frontal test and the second was a 45 degrees far-side test. The dummy tests were conducted with an R-16 seat with a three-point belt, the Delta V was 27.0+/-0.5 km/h and the maximum peak acceleration was approximately 14.6+/-0.5 g for each test. RESULTS: A new shoulder design with geometry close to that of humans was developed to be retrofitted to the THOR NT dummy. The results showed that the range of motion for the new shoulder complex during static loading was larger by at least a factor of three, for the maximum load (200 N/arm), than that of either the Hybrid III or the THOR NT; this means it was more similar to the volunteers' range of motion. It was observed that the THOR NT with the new shoulder did not slide out of the shoulder belt during a far-side collision. The performance of the new shoulder was reasonably repeatable and stable during both the static tests and the sled tests. CONCLUSION: A new shoulder for the THOR NT has been designed and developed, and data from static range of motion tests and sled tests indicate that the new shoulder complex has the potential to function in a more human-like manner on the THOR dummy.     

Cranial shape transformation in the evolution of the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca)

In this study, landmark-based methods of geometric morphometrics are used for investigating the main aspects of cranial shape transformation in the evolution of the giant panda, Ailuropoda melanoleuca. Specifically, we explore if the highly derived cranial adaptations for bamboo feeding of the living panda were developed early in the panda's lineage. Results obtained show that the overall cranial morphologies of the oldest known panda, the "pygmy" Ailuropoda microta, and the late Pleistocene Ailuropoda baconi are both very similar to that of their closest living relative, A. melanoleuca, which agrees with a previous proposal based on qualitative criteria. However, we also describe several differences between the crania of A. microta, A. baconi, and A. melanoleuca, including the development of the postorbital process, the orientation of the occipital region, and the expansion of the braincase. As a result, the cranial morphology of A. microta shows a less specialized morphology toward a fibrous and durophagous diet compared to the giant panda. These results are confirmed by a comparative analysis of the dimensions of the upper teeth in bears, which has revealed differences in relative tooth size between A. microta and A. melanoleuca, most probably as a result of mosaic evolution. Therefore, we conclude that cranial shape did not remain essentially uniform in the Ailuropoda lineage, as previously thought, but underwent a number of changes during more than 2?Myr.     

Giant rhinoceros Paraceratherium and other vertebrates from Oligocene and middle Miocene deposits of the Kağızman-Tuzluca Basin, Eastern Turkey

A recent fieldwork in the Ka??zman-Tuzluca Basin in northeastern Turkey led us to the discovery of three vertebrate localities which yielded some limb bones of the giant rhino Paraceratherium, a crocodile tooth, and some small mammals, respectively. These discoveries allowed, for the first time to date some parts of the sedimentary units of this basin. This study also shows that the dispersal area of Paraceratherium is wider than it was known before. Eastern Turkey has several Cenozoic sedimentary basins formed during the collision of the Arabian and Eurasian plates. They are poorly documented for vertebrate paleontology. Consequently, the timing of tectonic activities, which led to the formation of the East Anatolian accretionary complex, is not constrained enough with a solid chronological framework. This study provides the first biostratigraphic evidences for the infill under the control of the compressive tectonic regime, which built the East Anatolian Plateau.     

ISO 14001 certification and financial performance: selection-effect versus treatment-effect

The paper explores the bi-directional relationship between ISO 14001 certification and financial performance with the aim of shedding light on whether better performance is due to the beneficial effects of ISO 14001 or due to selection-effects where better performance precedes accreditation. The study uses a five year longitudinal analysis to compare the financial performance of firms in Spain before and after certification. The results of a multivariate panel data analysis find that firms with better than average performance have a greater propensity to pursue accreditation but there is no evidence that improvements in performance follow certification. This suggests that the inference that environmental variables cause improved financial performance may be unwise in research studies that can only measure association.     

Ash deposition impact on the energy performance of photovoltaic generators

A little known side effect of the atmospheric air pollution is the degradation of photovoltaic (PV) cells’ performance due to the deposition of solid particles varying in composition, size and origin. In this context, an experimental-based investigation is conducted in order to compare the energy performance of two identical pairs of PV-panels; the first being clean and the second being artificially polluted with ash, i.e. a by-product of incomplete hydrocarbons’ combustion mainly originating from thermal power stations and vehicular exhausts. A series of systematic measurements of current intensity, voltage output and solar radiation are executed simultaneously for the clean and the polluted PV-panel, so that the effect of several mass depositions on the PVs’ power output, energy yield and conversion efficiency may be determined. According to the results, a considerable deterioration of the PV-panels’ performance is obtained, i.e. almost 30% energy reduction per hour or 1.5% efficiency decrease (in absolute terms) for ash accumulation on the panels’ surface reaching up to 0.4 mg/cm².     

Health implications of radon distribution in living rooms and bedrooms in U.K. dwellings--a case study in Northamptonshire

Environmental radon exposure of residents of domestic premises in the United Kingdom (UK) and elsewhere in Europe is estimated on the basis of the measured radon concentrations in, and the relative occupancies of, the principal living room and bedroom. While studies on radon concentration variability in the individual units in apartment blocks in various countries have been described, little data has been reported on variability in two-storey single-family dwellings, and the majority of extant studies consolidate living room and bedroom data early in the analysis. To investigate this further, detailed analysis was made of radon concentration data from a set of thirty-four homes situated in areas of Northamptonshire known to exhibit high radon levels. All homes were of typical UK construction of brick/block/stone walls under a pitched tile/slate roof. Approximately 50% of the sample were detached houses, the remainder being semi-detached (duplex) or terraced (row-house). Around 25% of the sample possessed cellars, while 12% were single-storey dwellings (bungalows), reflecting the typical incidence of this type of dwelling in England. In the two-storey homes, all monitored bedrooms were on the upper floor. Distribution of the ratios of bedroom/living room radon concentrations (BR/LR ratio) in individual properties was left-skewed (mean 0.67, median 0.73, range 0.05-1.05) with a tail extending to just above 1.0. The mean is consistent with the outcome of earlier extensive studies in England, while the variability depends principally on the characteristics of the property, and not on seasonal factors. In a small set of homes, the BR/LR ratio was anomalously low, (mean 0.3). BR/LR ratios in single-storey homes clustered around a value of 1.0, indicating that house design, rather than lifestyle, is the dominant factor in determining bedroom radon concentrations. Homes with higher mean annual radon concentrations showed lower BR/LR ratios, supporting our proposal that, in some homes, radon emanation from building materials may comprise a significant component of the overall radon level.