Modeling the contribution of speeding and impaired driving to insurance claim counts and costs when contributing factors are unknown

PROBLEM: There are no specific indicators for distinguishing insurance claims related to speeding and impaired driving in the information warehouse at the Insurance Corporation of British Columbia. Contributing factors are only recorded for that part of the claim data that is also reported by the police. Most published statistics on crashes that are related to alcohol or speeding are based on police-reported data, but this represents only a fraction of all incidents. METHOD: This paper proposes surrogate models to estimate the counts and the average costs associated with speeding and impaired driving to insurance claims when contributing factors are unknown. Using police-reported data, classification rules and logistic regression models are developed to form such estimates. One approach applies classification rules to categorize insurance claims into those related to speeding, impaired driving, and other factors. The counts and the costs of insurance claims for each of these strata and overall are then estimated. A second method models the probability that an insurance claim is related to speeding or impaired driving using logistic regression and uses this to estimate the overall counts and the average costs of the claims. The two methods are compared and evaluated using simulation studies. RESULTS: The logistic regression model was found to be superior to the classification model for predicting insurance claim counts by category, but less efficient at predicting average claim costs. IMPACT: Having estimates of counts and costs of insurance claims related to impaired driving or speeding for all reported crash events provides a more accurate basis for policy-makers to plan changes and benefits of road safety programs.     

Estimating the contributions of speeding and impaired driving to insurance claim cost

INTRODUCTION: Logistic regression modelling of crash counts likely associated with speeding and impaired driving was earlier found [Zheng, Y., Cooper, P. J., & Dean, C. B. (2007). Modeling the contribution of speeding and impaired driving to insurance claim counts and costs when contributing factors are unknown. Journal of Safety Research, 38(1)] to successfully predict known outcomes in a series of simulations, but the same types of models did not accurately predict average crash costs. The aim of the study reported here was to develop a means to adjust classification model results that would improve their cost-predicting efficiency. METHOD: A classification modelling process was adjusted at the back-end using non-linear optimization to rationalize the classified proportions with the true proportions when the model was applied to representative subsets of the training data. Corrections were developed to account for cost (severity) differences arising from the classification process that were not due to true variations. The process was then applied to insurance claim test data where crash contributors were unknown. RESULTS: The optimization and severity correction procedure resulted in substantial improvement in average crash cost prediction for both impaired and unsafe speed collision involvements. The error measured against true values in 20 simulations was about half for the adjusted classification model of what it was for either unadjusted classification or logistic regression models. CONCLUSIONS: Non-linear optimization of classification matrices appears to be a workable tool for improving the predictive efficiency of models where desired outcomes represent average characteristics of records as compared to simple counts or proportions. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Using the methodology on a full-year of insurance claim data indicated that reliance on police-reported records alone would have underestimated the total cost of unsafe speed and impaired crashes by about 40%. Since most jurisdictions use police data to base policy decisions and set program spending around such safety issues, this finding has important implications.     

Altered ecohydrologic response drives native shrub loss under conditions of elevated nitrogen deposition

Many regions of southern California's coastal sage scrub (CSS) are rapidly declining as exotic annual plants replace native shrubs. During this conversion, the subsurface hydrology of the semiarid hillslopes that support CSS may be altered. This could chronically suppress the ability of native shrubland to revegetate the landscape since ecosystem processes of nutrient availability and of seedling establishment rely on spatial patterns of available soil water. In this work, soil water and nutrient N regimes were compared over a 2-yr period between a southern California site where CSS has declined (approximately 5% shrub cover) with high additions of anthropogenic N, and one where CSS remains dominant (over 50% shrub cover) with predominantly background atmospheric additions of N. These two sites have similar climate, bedrock lithology, soils, and topography, and had the same vegetation type (Riversidean CSS) 30 years ago. We found that the depth and rate of rainwater percolation into wildland hillslope soils in response to early-season storm events has been greatly reduced after loss of CSS shrubs and vegetation type conversion to invasive grassland. With decreased rainwater redistribution to soil depths of 100 to 150 cm, the predominant zone of soil water has become the upper 25 cm. This shift exacerbates vegetation type conversion by (i) concentrating smog-produced nitrogenous (N) chemicals in the uppermost soil, where they become readily available, along with high soil water, to shallow-rooted exotic grasses early in the growing season and (ii) depriving adult and juvenile shrubs of deeper regolith water.     

Light distribution in dynamic street lighting: Two experimental studies on its effects on perceived safety,prospect, concealment,and escape

The relationship between light and perceived safety at night is intuitively strong, yet theoretically and empirically its workings are largely unknown. Intelligent dynamic road lighting, which continuously adapts to the presence and behavior of users, can light the street only when and where it is needed. As such, it offers a solution to the energy waste and luminous pollution associated with conventional road lighting. With this innovation, however, new questions emerge about the effect of lighting on perceived safety. We need to consider not only how much lighting pedestrians need to feel safe, but also which parts of the street should be lit. In two experiments, we investigated the effect of different light distributions on perceived safety, and explored mediation by people's appraisal of three safety-related cues suggested in the literature: prospect (having an overview), escape (perceived escape possibilities), and refuge/concealment (perceived hiding places for offenders). Both experiments, one with stationary and one with walking participants, demonstrated that people prefer having light in their own immediate surroundings rather than on the road that lies ahead. This could be explained, partially, by changes in prospect, escape, and concealment. Against expectations, prospect was higher with lighting distributions in which participants' immediate surroundings, but not the more distant parts of the road, were most strongly lit.     

Organic carbon stratification and size distribution of three typical paddy soils from Taihu Lake region, China

Developing realistic soil carbon (C) sequestration strategies for China’s sustainable agriculture relies on accurate estimates of the amount, retention and turnover rates of C stored in paddy soils. Available C estimates to date are predominantly for the tilled and flood-irrigated surface topsoil (ca. 30 cm). Such estimates cannot be used to extrapolate to soil depths of 100 cm since soil organic carbon (SOC) generally shows a sharp decrease with depth. In this research, composite soil samples were collected at several depths to 100 cm from three representative paddy soils in the Taihu Lake region, China. Soil organic carbon distribution in the profiles and in aggregate-size fractions was determined. Results showed that while SOC decreased exponentially with depth to 100 cm, a substantial proportion of the total SOC (30%–40%) is stored below the 30 cm depth. In the carbon-enriched paddy topsoils, SOC was found to accumulate preferentially in the 2–0.25 and 0.25–0.02 mm aggregate size fractions. σ13C analysis of the coarse micro-aggregate fraction showed that the high degree of C stratification in the paddy topsoil was in agreement with the occurrence of lighter @1313C in the upper 30 cm depth. These results suggest that SOC stratification within profiles varies with di erent pedogenetical types of paddy soils with regards to clay and iron oxyhydrates distributions. Sand-sized fractions of aggregates in paddy soil systems may play a very important role in carbon sequestration and turnover, dissimilar to other studied agricultural systems.     

Regionale Klimatrends mit Hilfe der phänologischen Uhr, dargestellt am Beispiel Rheinland-Pfalz

Aims and Scope

Over recent decades, the climate has changed. Up to now this statement has been made predominantly for the global and/or continental area. What, however, is the situation regarding the climatic trend at the regional scale? Is it already possible to show effects of a climate change in small-scale landscape structures? These questions were addressed looking at the example of the situation in the federal state of Rhineland-Palatinate (Germany).

Methods

Phenological data of plants of the last 50 years from a total of 386 stations of the German Weather Service (DWD) were evaluated. The timing of the different plant phases, beginning of the foliation and plant senescence in autumn, flowering and the first ripening of the fruits had to be registered for different agricultural crops, wild plants, ornamental woods as well as fruit trees. The analysed data material was used to develop the threefold phenological clock (DPU).

Results

Summarising the findings of the DPU for the 15 evaluated nature districts of Rhineland-Palatinate according to individual seasons, which were defined in generic terms as spring, summer, autumn and winter, a tendency of a prematuring of the spring, a prolongation of the autumn as well as a shortening of the winter is evident. From a regional point of view, on the other hand, in individual nature districts such as the ‘Westerwald’ and the ‘Bergisch-Sauerländische Gebirge’, winter seasons are getting longer. Thus the effects of a climate change can differ considerably from region to region.

Outlook

The regionally quite different changes of the climatic situation in Rhineland-Palatinate will not remain without an effect on the ecosystems of this federal state. The currently existing biocoenosis will therefore change. The consequences for forestry, agriculture and nature conservation are of special interest in this context.     

Public Participation and Local Environmental Planning: The collective action problem and the potential of social capital

Expanding the opportunities for public participation in environmental planning is not always the best option. Starting from an institutional public choice analysis of public participation in terms of the collective action problem, this paper emphasises the roots of participatory activities in the incentive structures facing potential participants. It then goes on to consider the strategies that may be adopted for encouraging greater public involvement and looks particularly to the social capital literature for suggestions of how institutional redesign may alter these incentive structures. The paper concludes by distinguishing three different modes of environmental planning, in terms of the rationale for participation, the severity of the collective action problem and the associated participatory strategy that can be adopted.     

Mineralisation of 2,6-dichlorobenzamide (BAM) in dichlobenil-exposed soils and isolation of a BAM-mineralising Aminobacter sp

Mineralisation of the groundwater contaminant 2,6-dichlorobenzamide (BAM), a metabolite from the herbicide 2,6-dichlorobenzonitrile (dichlobenil), was studied in soil samples obtained from 39 locations previously exposed to dichlobenil. Rapid BAM mineralisation was detected in samples from six locations with 5.2-64.6% of the added BAM mineralised within 48-50 days. From one location rapid BAM mineralisation was observed in soil samples down to a depth of 2 m below the surface. One location with fast BAM mineralisation showed significant dichlobenil degradation activity with 25.5% of the added dichlobenil being mineralised within 50 days. By inoculating soil showing the fastest mineralisation of BAM into a mineral medium with BAM as the only carbon and nitrogen source an enrichment culture was established. Community analysis based on extracted DNA revealed a change of the bacterial community but without any clear indication of key members within the BAM-mineralising culture. Parallel cultivation resulted for the first time in the isolation of a BAM-mineralising bacterium, identified as an Aminobacter sp.     

Nitrogen and phosphorus budgets in experimental grasslands of variable diversity

Previous research has shown that plant diversity influences N and P cycles. However, the effect of plant diversity on complete ecosystem N and P budgets has not yet been assessed. For 20 plots of artificially established grassland mixtures differing in plant diversity, we determined N and P inputs by bulk and dry deposition and N and P losses by mowing (and subsequent removal of the biomass) and leaching from April 2003 to March 2004. Total deposition of N and P was 2.3 +/- 0.1 and 0.2 +/- 0.01 g m(-2) yr(-1), respectively. Mowing was the main N and P loss. The net N and P budgets were negative (-6.3 +/- 1.1 g N and -1.9 +/- 0.2 g P m(-2) yr(-1)). For N, this included a conservative estimate of atmospheric N(2) fixation. Nitrogen losses as N(2)O were expected to be small at our study site (<0.05 g m(-2) yr(-1)). Legumes increased the removal of N with the harvest and decreased leaching of NH(4)-N and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) from the canopy. Reduced roughness of grass-containing mixtures decreased dry deposition of N and P. Total dissolved P and NO(3)-N leaching from the canopy increased in the presence of grasses attributable to the decreased N and P demand of grass-containing mixtures. Species richness did not have an effect on any of the studied fluxes. Our results demonstrate that the N and P fluxes in managed grassland are modified by the presence or absence of particular functional plant groups and are mainly driven by the management.