Consensus Seasonal Flood Forecasts and Warning Response System (FFWRS): An Alternate for Nonstructural Flood Management in Bangladesh

Despite advances in short-range flood forecasting and information dissemination systems in Bangladesh, the present system is less than satisfactory. This is because of short lead-time products, outdated dissemination networks, and lack of direct feedback from the end-user. One viable solution is to produce long-lead seasonal forecasts—the demand for which is significantly increasing in Bangladesh—and disseminate these products through the appropriate channels. As observed in other regions, the success of seasonal forecasts, in contrast to short-term forecast, depends on consensus among the participating institutions. The Flood Forecasting and Warning Response System (henceforth, FFWRS) has been found to be an important component in a comprehensive and participatory approach to seasonal flood management. A general consensus in producing seasonal forecasts can thus be achieved by enhancing the existing FFWRS. Therefore, the primary objective of this paper is to revisit and modify the framework of an ideal warning response system for issuance of consensus seasonal flood forecasts in Bangladesh. The five-stage FFWRS—i) Flood forecasting, ii) Forecast interpretation and message formulation, iii) Warning preparation and dissemination, iv) Responses, and v) Review and analysis—has been modified. To apply the concept of consensus forecast, a framework similar to that of the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) has been discussed. Finally, the need for a climate Outlook Fora has been emphasized for a comprehensive and participatory approach to seasonal flood hazard management in Bangladesh.     

Characterization of PM25 and PM10 in the South Coast Air Basin of Southern California: Part 1—Spatial Variations

ABSTRACT

In December 1994, the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) initiated a comprehensive program, the PM₁₀ Technical Enhancement Program (PTEP), to characterize fine PM in the South Coast Air Basin (SCAB). A 1-year special particulate monitoring project was conducted from January 1995 to February 1996 as part of the PTEP. Under this enhanced monitoring, HNO₃, NH₃, and speciated PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 concentrations were measured at five stations (Anaheim, downtown Los Angeles, Diamond Bar, Fontana, and Rubidoux) in the SCAB and at one background station at San Nicolas Island. PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ mass and 43 individual species were analyzed for a full chemical speciation of the particle data. The PTEP data indicate that the most abundant chemical components of PM₁₀ and PM₂₅ in the SCAB are NH₄+ (8-9% of PM₁₀ and 14-17% of PM₂₅), NO₃ ^- (23-26% of PM₁₀ and 28-41% of PM₂₅), SO₄= (6-11% of PM₁₀ and 9-18% of PM_{2 5}), organic carbon (OC) (15-19% of PM₁₀ and 18-26% of PM_2.5), and elemental carbon (EC) (5-8% of PM₁₀ and 8-13% of PM₂₅). On an annual average basis, PM₂₅ comprises 52-59% of the SCAB PM₁₀. Annual average PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 concentrations showed strong spatial variations, low at coastal sites and high at inland sites. Annual average PM₁₀ concentrations varied from 40.8 ug/m³ at Anaheim to 76.8 ug/m³ at Rubidoux, while annual average PM_2.5 concentrations varied from 21.7 ug/m³ at Anaheim to 39.8 ug/m³ at Rubidoux. The chemical characterizations of the PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ concentrations, as well as their spatial variations, were examined; the important findings are summarized in this paper, and the temporal variations are discussed in the companion paper.¹     

The development of the fetal eye: In utero ultrasonographic measurements of the vitreous and lens

Our objective was to establish nomograms for fetal eye measurements from 12 weeks' gestation by using transvaginal and transabdominal high-resolution ultrasound techniques. A prospective cross-sectional study was performed on 450 normal singleton pregnancies between 12 and 37 weeks' gestation. Vitreous and lens circumferences were measured by transvaginal ultrasonography until 17 weeks, and by abdominal ultrasound between 18 and 37 weeks' gestation. Regression analyses were used to create nomograms, and several transformations were done to obtain linearity. Eye measurements of 12 fetuses at risk for ocular disturbances were plotted on the constructed nomograms. Linear relationships were fitted between vitreous (r²=0.79) and lens (r²=0.88) circumferences and gestational age. In addition, there was a significant correlation between these measurements and the biparietal diameter. Data of the fetuses at risk showed that disturbances in ocular growth were associated mainly with abnormal cerebral development. These normative data may be helpful in the prenatal diagnosis of suspected congenital syndromes that include, among their manifestations, ocular growth disturbances such as microphthalmos and anophthalmos.     

On the parental origin of the X's in a prenatally diagnosed 49,XXXXX syndrome

A 49,XXXXX fetus was detected in amniotic fluid cell cultures from a 39-year-old mother. On ultrasonography, growth retardation and bilateral radioulnar synostosis were found. Additional clinical manifestations were mild facial anomalies and hypoplastic ovaries depleted of oocytes. Molecular analysis showed that this aneuploidy arose by successive maternal non-disjunction.     

Diagnosis and significance of cystic hygroma in the first trimester

Thirty cases of cervical cystic hygroma were diagnosed in the first trimester of pregnancy. Karyotype analysis was available in 29 (97 per cent). Fifteen (52 per cent) had a chromosomal abnormality. The ultrasound appearance was described as posterior cervical, lateral cervical, or cervical hygroma with hydrops. Of the 14 euploid embryos, six were electively aborted, two are undelivered, and six have been delivered as phenotypically normal infants. In cases in which the chromosomes were normal and the pregnancy continued, all lesions resolved by 18 weeks.     

Cardiotocographic and sonographic findings in two cases of antenatally diagnosed intrauterine fetal brain death

Intrauterine fetal brain death is a rare cause of a fixed fetal heart rate pattern. Seven cases have been previously reported in the literature, but only two of them were diagnosed prenatally and all the newborns died soon after delivery. Two additional cases of antepartum diagnosis of intrauterine fetal brain death, managed expectantly, are reported. We had the unique opportunity to document progressive sonographic cerebral changes during the follow-up period, following the neurological event, while the fetus continued life and growth in utero. The cardiographic and sonographic findings suggesting intrauterine fetal brain death were a prolonged fixed fetal heart rate, even following a vibroacoustic and contraction stress test; an atonic fetus without breathing and body movement; and the appearance of hydramnios and the development of ventriculomegaly.     

Maternal and cord blood levels of Aldrin and Dieldrin in Delhi population

Aldrin and dieldrin, structurally similar organochlorine pesticides belong to cyclodiene family and were widely used for agriculture and public health program in India. Although the manufacturing, use and import of aldrin and dieldrin have been banned in India since 2003, these pesticides are still persistent in environment and may be associated with adverse neurological and reproductive effects. The aim of this study is to assess the recent exposure level of aldrin and dieldrin and their placental transfer to fetus in normal healthy full-term pregnant women belonging to north Indian population undergoing normal delivery at Obstetrics and Gynecology department of UCMS and GTB hospital, Delhi. Quantitative analysis of aldrin and dieldrin residues in maternal and cord blood samples were carried out by gas chromatography system equipped with electron capture detector. The results of our study clearly revealed that maternal and cord blood levels of aldrin and dieldrin of pregnant women are age and dietary habit dependent. The aldrin level in maternal blood and dieldrin level in cord blood are higher in women in the age group 25–30 years than in women in age group of 19–24 years. Similarly, aldrin level in maternal blood is significantly higher in women with non-vegetarian dietary habit than in women with vegetarian dietary habit. No significant association is found for maternal and cord blood level. The results of the present study clearly demonstrate prenatal uptake of aldrin and dieldrin and provide recent information on the subsequent transplacental transfer.