An optimized nonlinear grey Bernoulli model was proposed by using a particle swarm optimization algorithm to solve the parameter optimization problem. In addition, each item in the first-order accumulated generating sequence was set in turn as an initial condition to determine which alternative would yield the highest forecasting accuracy. To test the forecasting performance, the optimized models with different initial conditions were then used to simulate dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Guanting reservoir inlet and outlet (China). The empirical results show that the optimized model can remarkably improve forecasting accuracy, and the particle swarm optimization technique is a good tool to solve parameter optimization problems. What's more, the optimized model with an initial condition that performs well in in-sample simulation may not do as well as in out-of-sample forecasting. 相似文献
An optimized nonlinear grey Bernoulli model was proposed by using a particle swarm optimization algorithm to solve the parameter optimization problem. In addition, each item in the first-order accumulated generating sequence was set in turn as an initial condition to determine which alternative would yield the highest forecasting accuracy. To test the forecasting performance, the optimized models with different initial conditions were then used to simulate dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Guanting reservoir inlet and outlet (China). The empirical results show that the optimized model can remarkably improve forecasting accuracy, and the particle swarm optimization technique is a good tool to solve parameter optimization problems. What's more, the optimized model with an initial condition that performs well in in-sample simulation may not do as well as in out-of-sample forecasting. 相似文献
Zero-valent iron (Fe0) has been widely used for Cr(VI) removal; however, the removal mechanisms of Cr(VI) from aqueous solution under complex hydrogeochemical conditions were poorly understood. In this research, the mixed materials containing cast iron and activated carbon were packed in columns for the treatment of aqueous Cr(VI)-Cr(III) in groundwater with high concentration of Ca2+, Mg2+, HCO3−, NO3−, and SO42−. We investigate the influences of those ions on Cr(VI) removal, especially emphasizing on the reaction mechanisms and associated precipitations which may lead to porosity loss by using X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) techniques. The results show that the precipitations accumulated on the material surface were (Fe/Cr) (oxy)hydroxide, mixed Fe(III)-Cr(III) (oxy)hydroxides, Fe2O3, CaCO3, and MgCO3. During these reactions, the Cr(VI) was reduced to Cr(III) coupled with the oxidated Fe0 to Fe(II) through the galvanic corrosion formed by the Fe0-C and/or the direct electron transfer between Fe0 and Cr(VI). In addition, Cr(VI) could be reduced by aqueous Fe(II), which dominated the whole removal efficiency. The primary aqueous Cr(III) was completely removed together with Cr(III) reduced from Cr(VI) even when Cr(VI) was detected in the effluent, which meant that the aqueous Cr(III) could occupy the adsorption sites. In general, the combined system was useful for the Cr(VI)-Cr(III) treatment based on galvanic corrosion, and the hardness ions had a negative effect on Cr(VI) removal by forming the carbonates which might promote the passivation of materials and decrease the removal capacity of the system.
We compared differences in plant species diversity between conifer (Pinus tabulaeformis) plantations and natural secondary forests in the middle of the Loess plateau. The goal of the study was to examine the differences
in the effect of stand development on species diversity and in species responses to changes between forest types and between
forest layers. To clarify the effects of differences in forest management, we emphasized the functional types of plant species
occurring in each forest type. The result as follow: (1) The H′ and S of tree layer were significantly lower in natural conifer forest than old conifer and secondary forest, but were not different
compared with mid aged conifer forest. The H′ and S of shrub layer were significantly lower in mid aged conifer forest compared with other forest types. The H′ of herb layer showed no significant differences in the four forest types. The evenness index (J′) of tree layer of mid aged conifer forest was lower than other forest communities and its J′ of shrub layer was highest although its richness of shrub layer was lower than in the other forest types. (2) The analysis
of β diversity index also indicated large differences between conifer plantations and natural forests. Although the tree layer
species were similar in old plantation and natural conifer forests, they differed greatly between the natural conifer and
secondary forests. The natural conifer and secondary forest species composition in shrub layer differed significantly from
those in plantation and secondary plots. Tree species were significantly less common in plantations than in abandoned coppice
forests. Species composition in the herb layer of different forest types was similar. (3) The management of P. tabulaeformis plantations alters plant species composition considerably; the number of sub tall-tree species is increased in old aged conifer
forest, especially species dispersed by animals. Plantation management appears to affect ecological processes through seed
dispersal. From the perspective of management, the change in the structure and composition of the canopy in plantations could
affect the behavior of dispersers and regeneration. 相似文献