基于突发事件机理分析的风险评估方法研究及应用

近年来,我国部分城市开展了城市安全风险评估工作。为了能够得到科学的风险评估方法和有效的结果,本文基于突发事件机理分析及单一事件链,对城市安全风险评估方法进行了研究及应用。通过引入控制因子,构建基于突发事件机理分析的单一事件链模型,并将该模型转化为风险评估工作的指标体系,并将该指标体系在某区城市安全风险评估工作中进行了应用,对该区17种单位或场所,涉及到的18类风险,共计201家企业进行风险级别评估。最终得出该区17种单位或场所中每种单位或场所的整体风险等级,以及重大风险数量的占比情况,为该区提出有针对性的风险管控意见奠定了一定基础,并对本文的局限性和下一步研究方向提出一些看法和意见。     

火灾科学需深入研究的课题探讨

火灾科学是系统的科学,它涉及多个技术领域。从科学发展和现实角度,提出当前的火灾科学在城市消防规划、高大空间建筑防火设计综合方法、多层地下交通枢纽防火研究、安全疏散心理和机理研究、火灾自动报警系统的关联研究、建筑防排烟技术研究、建筑结构耐火性能研究等10个技术领域需深入研究的课程,以最终实现基础理论、实用方法、先进技术和科学管理一体化。     

页岩气加砂压裂高压管汇失效爆裂风险 控制措施研究与实践

随着页岩气平台井工厂化压裂施工启动,在大排量、高压力、长时间施工条件下,高压管汇失效爆裂大幅增加。为减少高压管汇在压裂过程中失效爆裂风险,运用故障假设、因果分析法从人的因素、物的因素、技术工艺、生产管理、工作环境5个方面分析事故的原因,提出了提升采购产品质量、修订完善高压管汇使用技术规范和管理制度、实施专业化管理、应用大数据管理高压管汇、优化现场地面高压管汇流程分配布局设计与联接工艺等高压管汇失效爆裂风险预防控制措施和失效后应急安全防护措施,建立了生命周期全过程、专业化的高压管汇失效爆裂防控与应急防护体系,实现风险可防受控。为页岩气压裂作业的安全提供了参考。     

安全降变原理及C-S-R事故致因新模型

为发展安全科学原理和给事故防控与调查提供新的方法,根据变化对系统安全的影响机制,开展安全降变原理及事故致因新模型研究。首先,提出安全降变原理并解析其内涵及研究意义。其次,基于安全降变原理,给出不同层级安全系统变化的分类实例,并对作业场所事故及其致因重新定义和分类。再次,构建基于安全降变原理的C-S-R事故致因新模型。最后,基于事故案例分析,验证所提出的C-S-R事故致因新模型与安全降变原理的有效性。结果表明,各级安全系统中自发或是受联动的变化超出系统的变化承受水平时,将导致事故的发生。经事故案例分析验证可知,安全降变原理及C-S-R事故致因新模型具有充分的实用性。     

基于24Model的矿工怠工行为 管理模式架构及策略研究

为减少矿工怠工行为,基于24Model研究矿工怠工行为的管理模式架构及策略。首先,基于冰山模型理论分析矿工怠工行为的影响因素;其次,基于24Model和行为修正理论提出集怠工行为识别、行为原因分析、行为管理策略选择和行为修正评估于一体的矿工怠工行为管理模式架构;最后,提出了针对性的管理策略。对于提高煤矿企业矿工的工作绩效具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。     

一种导电混凝土的制备及其电阻率测量

本文综述了导电混凝土的发展以及应用情况，提出了用导电混凝土作为接地材料的设想，并选择氧化铁粉作为骨料，添加适量碳粉配制了一种导电混凝土来验证。通过改变不同的配比制作导电混凝土模型，用四电极法测量其电阻率，得出碳粉比例对其电阻率的影响。     

Herbicide toxicity,selectivity and hormesis of nicosulfuron on 10 Trichogrammatidae (Hymenoptera) species parasitizing Anagasta ( = Ephestia) kuehniella (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) eggs

Selective agrochemicals including herbicides that do not affect non-target organisms such as natural enemies are important in the integrated pest management (IPM) programs. The aim of this study was to evaluate the herbicide toxicity, selectivity and hormesis of nicosulfuron, recommended for the corn Zea mays L. (Poaceae) crop, on 10 Trichogrammatidae (Hymenoptera) species. A female of each Trichogramma spp. or Trichogrammatoidea annulata De Santis, 1972 was individually placed in plastic test tubes (no choice) with a cardboard containing 45 flour moth Anagasta ( = Ephestia) kuehniella Zeller, 1879 (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) eggs. Parasitism by these natural enemies was allowed for 48 h and the cardboards were sprayed with the herbicide nicosulfuron at 1.50 L.ha^?1, along with the control (only distilled water). Nicosulfuron reduced the emergence rate of Trichogramma bruni Nagaraja, 1983 females, but increased that of Trichogramma pretiosum Riley, 1879, Trichogramma acacioi Brun, Moraes and Smith, 1984 and T. annulata females. Conversely, this herbicide increased the emergence rate of Trichogramma brasiliensis Ashmead, 1904, T. bruni, Trichogramma galloi Zucchi, 1988 and Trichogramma soaresi Nagaraja, 1983 males and decreased those of T. acacioi, Trichogramma atopovilia Oatman and Platner, 1983 and T. pretiosum males. In addition, nicosulfuron reduced the sex ratio of T. galloi, Trichogramma bennetti Nagaraja and Nagarkatti, 1973 and T. pretiosum and increased that of T. acacioi, T. bruni, T. annulata, Trichogramma demoraesi Nagaraja, 1983, T. soaresi and T. brasiliensis. The herbicide nicosulfuron was “harmless” (class 1, <30% reduction) for females and the sex ratio of all Trichogrammatidae species based on the International Organization for Biological Control (IOBC) classification. The possible hormesis effect of nicosulfuron on Trichogrammatidae species and on the bacterium Wolbachia sp. (Rickettsiales: Rickettsiaceae) was also discussed.     

“十三五”期间中国生态环境质量变化特征

以国家生态环境监测网监测结果为基础,总结归纳了"十三五"时期中国生态环境质量变化特征和主要环境问题。结果表明:"十三五"期间,全国生态环境质量全面好转,2020年环境空气优良天数比例比"十二五"末期上升5.8个百分点;地表水总体水质由轻度污染转为良好,Ⅰ～Ⅲ类水质断面比例上升17.4个百分点,劣V类断面比例下降9.0个百分点;酸雨污染程度减轻,海洋等环境要素质量稳中向好。但与此同时,后续改善难度加大,全国仍有40%地级及以上城市空气质量超标,4.8%的国土面积发生酸雨,辽河和海河流域仍是轻度污染,部分河流污染较重,地下水以IV类水质为主,农村饮用水源地和地表水水质均受到不同程度污染,近三分之一国土面积县域生态质量为较差和差。总体来看,当前生态环境质量与人民对美好生态环境的需求和美丽中国目标的实现还有较大差距。逐年上升的能源消费总量和不断增长的汽车保有量,增加了生态环境质量继续改善的压力。     

河南省在用柴油车加载减速烟度排放限值研究

随着车辆技术进步和燃油品质提升,河南省在用柴油车加载减速污染物现行排放限值已不能对高排放车辆进行有效监控。依据《确定压燃式发动机在用汽车加载减速法排气烟度排放限值的原则和方法》(HJ/T 241—2005),采用相对光吸收系数与累积频率法,对9 458份在用柴油车检测数据进行统计分析,提出符合河南省的在用柴油车排放限值。建议河南省在用国三、国四、国五轻型柴油车尾气光吸收系数限值分别为0.98、0.89、0.76m~(-1),而相应重型柴油车尾气光吸收系数限值分别为0.66、0.62、0.48m~(-1);依据该限值,河南省在用柴油车的年检合格率控制在82.6%,高排放柴油车比例为17.4%,符合HJ/T 241—2005的要求。     

Historical carbon fluxes in the expanding deforestation frontier of Southern Brazilian Amazonia (1985–2012)

In tropical areas, pioneer occupation fronts steer the rapid expansion of deforestation, contributing to carbon emissions. Up-to-date carbon emission estimates covering the long-term development of such frontiers depend on the availability of high spatial–temporal resolution data. In this paper, we provide a detailed assessment of carbon losses from deforestation and potential forest degradation from fragmentation for one expanding frontier in the Brazilian Amazon. We focused on one of the Amazonia’s hot-spots of forest loss, the BR-163 highway that connects the high productivity agricultural landscapes in Mato Grosso with the exporting harbors of the Amazon. We used multi-decadal (1984–2012) Landsat-based time series on forested and non-forested area in combination with a carbon book-keeping model. We show a 36% reduction in 1984s biomass carbon stocks, which led to the emission of 611.5 TgCO₂ between 1985 and 1998 (43.6 TgCO₂ year⁻¹) and 959.8 TgCO₂ over 1999–2012 (68.5 TgCO₂ year⁻¹). Overall, fragmentation-related carbon losses represented 1.88% of total emissions by 2012, with an increasing relevance since 2004. We compared the Brazilian Space Agency deforestation assessment (PRODES) with our data and found that small deforestation polygons not captured by PRODES had increasing importance on estimated deforestation carbon losses since 2000. The comparative analysis improved the understanding of data-source-related uncertainties on carbon estimates and indicated disagreement areas between datasets that could be subject of future research. Furthermore, spatially explicit, annual deforestation and emission estimates like the ones derived from this study are important for setting regional baselines for REDD+ or similar payment for ecosystem services frameworks.