Assimilation of conventional and satellite wind observations in a mesoscale atmospheric model for studying atmospheric dispersion

A mesoscale atmospheric model PSU/NCAR MM5 is used to provide operational weather forecasts for a nuclear emergency response decision support system on the southeast coast of India. In this study the performance of the MM5 model with assimilation of conventional surface and upper-air observations along with satellite derived 2-d surface wind data from QuickSCAT sources is examined. Two numerical experiments with MM5 are conducted: one with static initialization using NCEP FNL data and second with dynamic initialization by assimilation of observations using four dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) analysis nudging for a pre-forecast period of 12 h. Dispersion simulations are conducted for a hypothetical source at Kalpakkam location with the HYSPLIT Lagrangian particle model using simulated wind field from the above experiments. The present paper brings out the differences in the atmospheric model predictions and the differences in dispersion model results from control and assimilation runs. An improvement is noted in the atmospheric fields from the assimilation experiment which has led to significant alteration in the trajectory positions, plume orientation and its distribution pattern. Sensitivity tests using different PBL and surface parameterizations indicated the simple first order closure schemes (Blackadar, MRF) coupled with the simple soil model have given better results for various atmospheric fields. The study illustrates the impact of the assimilation of the scatterometer wind and automated weather stations (AWS) observations on the meteorological model predictions and the dispersion results.     

Linear and non-linear relationships mapping the Henry’s law parameters of organic pesticides

This work aims to predict the air to water partitioning for 96 organic pesticides by means of the Quantitative Structure–Property Relationships Theory. After performing structural feature selection with Genetics Algorithms and Replacement Method linear approaches, it is found that among the most important molecular features appears the Moriguchi octanol–water partition coefficient, and higher lipophilicities would lead to compounds having higher Henry’s law constants. We also compare the statistical performance achieved by four fully-connected Feed-Forward Multilayer Perceptrons Artificial Neural Networks. The statistical results found reveal that the best performing model uses the Levenberg–Marquardt with Bayesian regularization (BR) weighting function for achieving the most accurate predictions.     

Thirty year monitoring of PCBs, organochlorine pesticides and tetrabromodiphenylether in eel from The Netherlands

Because of their excellent properties as a biomonitor, yellow eels (Anguilla anguilla) have been used for time-trend monitoring of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and tetrabrominated diphenylether (tetra-BDE). The program has now lasted for thirty years and has delivered valuable information on trends and spatial differences of these compounds in the delta of the rivers Rhine and Meuse and other Dutch canals, rivers and lakes. Specific local PCB, HCH and dieldrin contaminations were identified. Temporal trends show a slow decrease of PCB concentrations since 1977. Eels from the rivers Rhine and Meuse still exceed present European maximum residue limits for dioxin-like PCBs. Apart from some exceptions, OCP and tetra-BDE concentrations have also decreased, and more than those of PCBs. Fat contents of eel have decreased from an average of 21 to ca. 13%. This decrease in fat contents, coincides with the strong reduction of the European eel stock.     

Appraisal of measurement methods, chemical composition and sources of fine atmospheric particles over six different areas of Northern Belgium

Daily and seasonal variation in the total elemental, organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) content and mass of PM_2.5 were studied at industrial, urban, suburban and agricultural/rural areas. Continuous (optical Dustscan, standard tapered element oscillating micro-balance (TEOM), TEOM with filter dynamics measurement system), semi-continuous (Partisol filter-sampling) and non-continuous (Dekati-impactor sampling and gravimetry) methods of PM_2.5 mass monitoring were critically evaluated. The average elemental fraction accounted for 2-6% of the PM_2.5 mass measured by gravimetry. Metals, like K, Mn, Fe, Cu, Zn and Pb were strongly inter-correlated, also frequently with non-metallic elements (P, S, Cl and/or Br) and EC/OC. A high OC/EC ratio (2-9) was generally observed. The total carbon content of PM_2.5 ranged between 3 and 77% (averages: 12-32%), peaking near industrial/heavy trafficked sites. Principal component analysis identified heavy oil burning, ferrous/non-ferrous industry and vehicular emissions as the main sources of metal pollution.     

Monitoring Regional Riparian Forest Cover Change Using Stratified Sampling and Multiresolution Imagery1

Claggett, Peter R., Judy A. Okay, and Stephen V. Stehman, 2010. Monitoring Regional Riparian Forest Cover Change Using Stratified Sampling and Multiresolution Imagery. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(2):334-343. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00424.x Abstract: The Chesapeake Bay watershed encompasses 165,760 km² of land area with 464,098 km of rivers and streams. As part of the Chesapeake Bay restoration effort, state and federal partners have committed to restoring 26,000 miles (41,843 km) of riparian forest buffers. Monitoring trends in riparian forest buffers over large areas is necessary to evaluate the efficacy of these restoration efforts. A sampling approach for estimating change in riparian forest cover from 1993/1994 to 2005 was developed and implemented in Anne Arundel County, Maryland, to exemplify a method that could be applied throughout the Bay watershed. All stream reaches in the county were stratified using forest cover change derived from Landsat imagery. A stratified random sample of 219 reaches was selected and forest cover change within the riparian buffer of each sampled reach was interpreted from high-resolution aerial photography. The estimated footprint of gross change in riparian forest cover (i.e., the sum of gross gain and gross loss) for the county was 1.83% (SE = 0.22%). Stratified sampling taking advantage of a priori knowledge of locations of change proved to be a practical and efficient protocol for estimating riparian forest buffer change at the county scale and the protocol would readily extend to much broader scale monitoring.     

How life history contributes to stress response in the Manila clam <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ruditapes philippinarum</Emphasis>

Introduction  

Within the last decade, numerous studies have investigated the role of environmental history on tolerance to stress of many organisms. This study aims to assess if Manila clams Ruditapes philippinarum may react differently to cadmium exposure and trematode parasite infection (Himasthla elongata) depending on their origin and environmental history in Arcachon Bay (France).     

Aerosol speciation and mass prediction from toluene oxidation under high NOx conditions

A kinetically based gas-particle partitioning box model is used to highlight the importance of parameter representation in the prediction of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation following the photo-oxidation of toluene. The model is initialized using experimental data from York University's indoor smog chamber and provides a prediction of the total aerosol yield and speciation. A series of model sensitivity experiments were performed to study the aerosol speciation and mass prediction under high NO_x conditions (VOC/NO_x = 0.2). Sensitivity experiments indicate vapour pressure estimation to be a large area of weakness in predicting aerosol mass, creating an average total error range of 70 μg m^?3 (range of 5–145 μg m^?3), using two different estimation methods. Aerosol speciation proved relatively insensitive to changes in vapour pressure. One species, 3-methyl-6-nitro-catechol, dominated the aerosol phase regardless of the vapour pressure parameterization used and comprised 73–88% of the aerosol by mass. The dominance is associated with the large concentration of 3-methyl-6-nitro-catechol in the gas-phase. The high NO_x initial conditions of this study suggests that the predominance of 3-methyl-6-nitro-catechol likely results from the cresol-forming branch in the Master Chemical Mechanism taking a significant role in secondary organic aerosol formation under high NO_x conditions. Further research into the yields and speciation leading to this reaction product is recommended.     

Comparison of land-use regression models between Great Britain and the Netherlands

Land-use regression models have increasingly been applied for air pollution mapping at typically the city level. Though models generally predict spatial variability well, the structure of models differs widely between studies. The observed differences in the models may be due to artefacts of data and methodology or underlying differences in source or dispersion characteristics. If the former, more standardised methods using common data sets could be beneficial. We compared land-use regression models for NO₂ and PM_10, developed with a consistent protocol in Great Britain (GB) and the Netherlands (NL).Models were constructed on the basis of 2001 annual mean concentrations from the national air quality networks. Predictor variables used for modelling related to traffic, population, land use and topography. Four sets of models were developed for each country. First, predictor variables derived from data sets common to both countries were used in a pooled analysis, including an indicator for country and interaction terms between country and the identified predictor variables. Second, the common data sets were used to develop individual baseline models for each country. Third, the country-specific baseline models were applied after calibration in the other country to explore transferability. The fourth model was developed using the best possible predictor variables for each country.A common model for GB and NL explained NO₂ concentrations well (adjusted R² 0.64), with no significant differences in intercept and slopes between the two countries. The country-specific model developed on common variables for NL but not GB improved the prediction.The performance of models based upon common data was only slightly worse than models optimised with local data. Models transferred to the other country performed substantially worse than the country-specific models. In conclusion, care is needed both in transferring models across different study areas, and in developing large inter-regional LUR models.     

Quantifying trace gas emissions from composite landscapes: A mass-budget approach with aircraft measurements

Quantifying trace gas emissions and the influence of surface exchange processes on the atmosphere is a necessary step towards the control of global greenhouse gas emissions and reliability of air quality models. This paper proposes a procedure based on the mass balance method and implemented on highly resolved aircraft data. It allows one to estimate surface exchanges on areas of several km² and heterogeneous features exploiting the characteristics of convective boundary layer during steady state conditions that permit the estimation of emission/absorption terms as functions of advective fluxes only. A nonparametric approach is adopted and the fluxes on the surface of a virtual box surrounding the area of interest are reconstructed on the basis of scalar densities and wind vectors using Shepard functions. Two different techniques are also proposed to face lack of data on the top surface of the box. The method has been applied to experimental data coming from measurement campaigns on two different sites. It provides realistic estimates of the CO₂ emission/absorption in the considered areas that are in good agreement with CO₂ fluxes evaluated by Airborne Eddy Covariance and confirm the suitability of the proposed approach for the assessment of turbulent exchange of trace gases by composite landscapes. Uncertainties on the estimated emissions due to both propagation of the experimental error and interpolation have been quantified by bootstrap analysis as 6%.