The Adaptive Capacity Wheel: a method to assess the inherent characteristics of institutions to enable the adaptive capacity of society

Climate change potentially brings continuous and unpredictable changes in weather patterns. Consequently, it calls for institutions that promote the adaptive capacity of society and allow society to modify its institutions at a rate commensurate with the rate of environmental change. Institutions, traditionally conservative and reactive, will now have to support social actors to proactively respond through planned processes and deliberate steps, but also through cherishing and encouraging spontaneous and autonomous change, as well as allowing for institutional redesign. This paper addresses the question: How can the inherent characteristics of institutions to stimulate the capacity of society to adapt to climate change from local through to national level be assessed? On the basis of a literature review and several brainstorm sessions, this paper presents six dimensions: Variety, learning capacity, room for autonomous change, leadership, availability of resources and fair governance. These dimensions and their 22 criteria form the Adaptive Capacity Wheel. This wheel can help academics and social actors to assess if institutions stimulate the adaptive capacity of society to respond to climate change; and to focus on whether and how institutions need to be redesigned. This paper also briefly demonstrates the application of this Adaptive Capacity Wheel to different institutions.     

The adaptive capacity of institutions in the spatial planning,water, agriculture and nature sectors in the Netherlands

The climate change problem calls for a continuously responding society. This raises the question: Do our institutions allow and encourage society to continuously adapt to climate change? This paper uses the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) to assess the adaptive capacity of formal and informal institutions in four sectors in the Netherlands: spatial planning, water, agriculture and nature. Formal institutions are examined through an assessment of 11 key policy documents and informal institutions are analysed through four case studies covering each sector. Based on these ACW analyses, both sector-specific and more general strengths and weaknesses of the adaptive capacity of institutions in the Netherlands are identified. The paper concludes that the most important challenge for increasing institutional adaptive capacity lies in combining decentralized, participatory approaches with more top-down methods that generate leadership (visions, goals) standards, instruments, resources and monitoring.     

Land or lover? Territorial defence and mutual mate guarding in the crimson-breasted shrike

Crimson-breasted shrikes produce duets which are used in interactions with neighbours and intruders. We examined two major hypotheses explaining duetting, the territorial defence and mate guarding hypotheses, using playback experiments. The responses of 12 pairs towards solo male, solo female and stereo duet playback were analysed using principal component analysis and ANOVA. The measures of response intensity revealed in most cases highly coordinated responses of the pair partners. Although these joint responses could suggest cooperative territorial defence or mutual mate defence, responses to the treatments differed between males and females in terms of three variables. Females increased their answer rates significantly in response to unpaired female intruders, compared to unpaired male intruders. During duet playback, females directed their responses equally at both intruding pair members. In contrast, males were equally responsive towards unpaired male intruders and intruding pairs, but in the latter case directed their responses at the male pair member. In the presence of unpaired female intruders, males increased their solo song rates, but in the presence of intruding pairs, they increased overlapping rates and duetted with their mates. These divergent responses suggest that females use duets for mate guarding against unpaired females, whereas males use solo songs for mate guarding and both solos and duets in territorial defence.     

Variation, levels and profiles of organochlorines and brominated flame retardants in great tit (Parus major) eggs from different types of sampling locations in Flanders (Belgium)

Small-scale geographical variation in the occurrence of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) was investigated using the eggs of a terrestrial residential songbird species, the great tit (Parus major). In addition, we investigated the influence of the type of sampling location on the presence of these pollutants. To achieve this, 10 different sampling locations in Flanders (Belgium) were classified into 3 groups based on the extent of urbanisation, industrialisation and agriculture. The higher variance among sampling locations for the levels and profiles of PCBs and OCPs, suggests that local contamination sources are more important for the PCBs and OCPs compared to the PBDEs. Levels of PCBs and PBDEs were significantly higher in the industrialised sampling locations compared to the other locations. Sum PCB and sum PBDE levels reached up to 6050 and 79 ng/g lipid weight, respectively. PCBs and PBDEs were highly positively correlated for all groups, suggesting similar exposure pathways and/or mechanisms of accumulation. Significantly higher levels of OCPs (sum OCPs up to 2683 ng/g lipid weight) were detected in the rural sampling locations situated in a residential area. This suggests that local historical usage of OCPs by inhabitants may be an important source of contamination in Flanders. Contamination profiles differed also among the sampling locations. The rural sampling locations had a higher contribution of lower brominated BDE congeners, whereas the industrialised locations had a higher contribution of higher brominated congeners. The differences in contamination profiles among the sampling locations are probably due to differences in exposure. In conclusion, our results showed that the characteristics of a sampling location influence both the levels and profiles of PCBs, OCPs and PBDEs.     

Assessing the impact of biological control of Plutella xylostella through the application of Lotka–Volterra model

The Lotka–Volterra model was applied to the population densities of diamondback moth (DBM), Plutella xylostella (L.) and its exotic larval parasitoid Diadegma semiclausum (Hellen) data that was collected earlier by icipe's DBM biological control team. The collections were done for 15 months before the release and 36 months after release of the parasitoid in two areas; in Werugha, Coast Province of Kenya and Tharuni, Central Province of Kenya, respectively. For each area in pre- and post-release periods, we estimated Lotka–Volterra model parameters from the minimization of the loss function between the theoretical and experimental time-series datasets following the Nelder-Mead multidimensional method. The model estimated a reduction in the value of the steady state of DBM population from 4.86 to 2.17 in Werugha and from 6.11 to 3.76 and 3.45 (with and without exclusion of the time before D. semiclausum recovery) in Tharuni when transiting from the pre- and post-release periods, respectively. This change was a consequence of the newly introduced parasitoid, in the areas. The study presented a successful and detailed technique for non-linear model parameters restoration which was demonstrated by the correct mimicking of empirical datasets from the classical biological control with D. semiclausum, in different areas of Kenya. The applied model has measured the parasitoids impact on the DBM biological control through a quantitative estimate of the effectiveness of the newly introduced species D. semiclausum. These equations may therefore be used as tool for decision making in the implementation for such pests’ management system strategy.     

Evaluation of discrete host–parasitoid models for diamondback moth and Diadegma semiclausum field time population density series

The performance of discrete mathematical models to describe the population dynamics of diamondback moth (DBM) (Plutella xylostella L.) and its parasitoid Diadegma semiclausum was investigated. The parameter values for several well-known models (Nicholson–Bailey, Hassell and Varley, Beddington, Free and Lawton, May, Holling type 2, 3 and Getz and Mills functional responses) were estimated. The models were tested on 20 consecutive sets of time series data collected at 14 days interval for pest and parasitoid populations obtained from a highland cabbage growing area in eastern Kenya. Model parameters were estimated from minimized squared difference between the numerical solution of the model equations and the empirical data using Powell's method. Maximum calculated DBM growth rates varied between 0.02 and 0.07. The carrying capacity determined at 16.5 DBM/plant by the Beddington et al. model was within the range of field data. However, all the estimated parameter values relating to the parasitoid, including the instantaneous searching rate (0.07–0.28), per capita searching efficiency (0.20–0.27), search time (5.20–5.33), handling time (0.77–0.90), and parasitism aggregation index (0.33), were well outside the range encountered empirically. All models evaluated for DBM under Durbin–Watson criteria, except the May model, were not autocorrelated with respect to residuals. In contrast, the criteria applied to the parasitoid residuals showed strong autocorrelations. Thus, these models failed to estimate parasitoid dynamics. We conclude that the interactions of the DBM with its parasitoid cannot be explained by any of the models tested. Two factors may be associated with this failure. First, the parasitoid in this integrated biological control system may not be playing a major role in regulating DBM population. Second, and perhaps more likely, poor correlations reflect gross inadequacies in the theoretical assumptions that underlie the existing models.     

Volatile Organic Compounds: Sampling Methods and Their Worldwide Profile in Ambient Air

The atmosphere is a particularly difficult analytical system because of the very low levels of substances to be analysed, sharp variations in pollutant levels with time and location, differences in wind, temperature and humidity. This makes the selection of an efficient sampling technique for air analysis a key step to reliable results. Generally, methods for volatile organic compounds sampling include collection of the whole air or preconcentration of samples on adsorbents. All the methods vary from each other according to the sampling technique, type of sorbent, method of extraction and identification technique. In this review paper we discuss various important aspects for sampling of volatile organic compounds by the widely used and advanced sampling methods. Characteristics of various adsorbents used for VOCs sampling are also described. Furthermore, this paper makes an effort to comprehensively review the concentration levels of volatile organic compounds along with the methodology used for analysis, in major cities of the world.     

Uncertainty in integrated coastal zone management

Uncertainty plays a major role in Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM). A large part of this uncertainty is connected to our lack of knowledge of the integrated functioning of the coastal system and to the increasing need to act in a pro-active way. Increasingly, coastal managers are forced to take decisions based on information which is surrounded by uncertainties. Different types of uncertainty can be identified and the role of uncertainty in decision making, scientific uncertainty and model uncertainty in ICZM is discussed. The issue of spatial variability, which is believed to be extremely important in ICZM and represents a primary source of complexity and uncertainty, is also briefly introduced. Some principles for complex model building are described as an approach to handle, in a balanced way, the available data, information, knowledge and experience. The practical method of sensitivity analysis is then introduced as a method for a posterior evaluation of uncertainty in simulation models. We conclude by emphasising the need for the definition of an analysis plan in order to handle model uncertainty in a balanced way during the decision making process.     

Alnus shrub expansion increases evapotranspiration in the Swiss Alps

Regional Environmental Change - Shrub encroachment is one of the main consequences of abandonment of montane grassland. Higher surface roughness of shrubs leads to stronger aerodynamic coupling....