Scenario analysis of perspective change to support climate adaptation: lessons from a pilot study on Dutch river management

Climate adaptation is a complex task surrounded by uncertainty. To support climate adaptation policies, a new scenario approach is pursued to explore possible discontinuous future developments of societal perspectives on climate adaptation issues. The scenario approach was tested for a case study on Dutch river management. In a series of scenario development workshops, a select group of stakeholders explored the perspectives on the management of the River Meuse in the past, present, and future. The process was supported by an analytical perspectives mapping tool to illustrate and analyze the development of perspectives over time. The process and analytical tools contributed to insight into the drivers of perspective change for the case study at hand. Moreover, the stakeholders highlighted the potential of the approach for water management policy for creating awareness about the plurality of perspectives and the dynamics of perspective change, monitoring perspectives and perspective change as part of a flexible policy approach, and anticipating on the occurrence of shock events. Further work is required to better represent the social dynamics of perspectives change, to better empirically ground the perspective change model, and to apply integrated water models in the scenario development process to assess water–society interactions.     

Agroforest’s growing role in reducing carbon losses from Jambi (Sumatra), Indonesia

This paper examines the size and intensity of changes among five land categories during the two time intervals in a region of Indonesia that is pioneering negotiations concerning reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). Maps at 1973, 1993, and 2005 indicate that land-cover change is accelerating, while carbon loss is decelerating in Jambi Province, Sumatra. Land dynamics have shifted from Forest loss during 1973–1993 to Agroforest loss during 1993–2005. Forest losses account for most reductions in aboveground carbon during the both time intervals, but Agroforest plays an increasingly important role in carbon reductions during the more recent interval. These results provide motivation for future REDD policies to count carbon changes associated with all influential land categories, such as Agroforests.     

Adaptation options for marine industries and coastal communities using community structure and dynamics

Identifying effective adaptation strategies for coastal communities dependent on marine resources and impacted by climate change can be difficult due to the dynamic nature of marine ecosystems. The task is more difficult if current and predicted shifts in social and economic trends are considered. Information about social and economic change is often limited to qualitative data. A combination of qualitative and quantitative models provide the flexibility to allow the assessment of current and future ecological and socio-economic risks and can provide information on alternative adaptations. Here, we demonstrate how stakeholder input, qualitative models and Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can provide semi-quantitative predictions, including uncertainty levels, for the assessment of climate and non-climate-driven change in a case study community. Issues are identified, including the need to increase the capacity of the community to cope with change. Adaptation strategies are identified that alter positive feedback cycles contributing to a continued decline in population, local employment and retail spending. For instance, the diversification of employment opportunities and the attraction of new residents of different ages would be beneficial in preventing further population decline. Some impacts of climate change can be combated through recreational bag or size limits and monitoring of popular range-shifted species that are currently unmanaged, to reduce the potential for excessive removal. Our results also demonstrate that combining BBNs and qualitative models can assist with the effective communication of information between stakeholders and researchers. Furthermore, the combination of techniques provides a dynamic, learning-based, semi-quantitative approach for the assessment of climate and socio-economic impacts and the identification of potential adaptation strategies.     

The use of XAD-resins for the detection of mutagenic activity in water: I. Studies with surface water

A study of the effects of different XAD-resins, bed volume, flow rate, pH and type of eluent on the extraction of organic mutagens from surface water is presented. XAD-4/8 is as effective as XAD-2 in concentrating organic mutagens from surface water and dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) is as efficient as acetone in eluting the adsorbed organic mutagens. The latter allows direct testing up to 0.5 ml of DMSO concentrate in the Ames test. Variation of the pH of the water after passing the XAD-4/8, followed by readsorption, shows that the majority of the mutagenic activity due to dissolved organics is adsorbed at neutral pH. Only a minor fraction is readsorbed at pH 3. Further a XAD-4/8 concentrate and a similar concentrate prepared by freeze drying gives similar mutagenic activity. This indicates that many of the organic mutagens are recovered in the XAD-4/8 concentrate.It is concluded that adsorption on XAD-4/8, followed by direct testing of the DMSO eluates in the Ames test, presents a rapid and relatively simple way to detect low concentrations of organic mutagens in surface water. The general suitability of the method is shown for different types of surface water.     

Perfluorinated chemicals in relation to other persistent organic pollutants in human blood

In order to evaluate blood levels of some perfluorinated chemicals (PFCs) and compare them to current levels of classical persistent organic pollutants (POPs) whole blood samples from Sweden were analyzed with respect to 12 PFCs, 37 polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), p,p'-dichlorodiphenyl-dichloroethylene (DDE), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), six chlordanes and three polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). The median concentration, on whole blood basis, of the sum of PFCs was 20-50 times higher compared to the sum of PCBs and p,p'-DDE, 300-450 times higher than HCB, sum of chlordanes and sum of PBDEs. Estimations of the total body amount of PFCs and lipophilic POPs point at similar body burdens. While levels of for example PCBs and PBDEs are normalized to the lipid content of blood, there is no such general procedure for PFCs in blood. The distributions of a number of perfluorinated compounds between whole blood and plasma were therefore studied. Plasma concentrations were higher than whole blood concentrations for four perfluoroalkylated acids with plasma/whole blood ratios between 1.1 and 1.4, whereas the ratio for perflurooctanesulfonamide (PFOSA) was considerably lower (0.2). This suggests that the comparison of levels of PFCs determined in plasma with levels determined in whole blood should be made with caution. We also conclude that Swedish residents are exposed to a large number of PFCs to the same extent as in USA, Japan, Colombia and the few other countries from which data is available today.     

Preliminary assessment of risk of ozone impacts to maize (Zea mays) in southern Africa

Surface ozone concentrations in southern Africa exceed air quality guidelines set to protect agricultural crops. This paper addresses a knowledge gap by performing a preliminary assessment of potential ozone impacts on vegetation in southern African. Maize (Zea mays L.) is the receptor of interest in the main maize producing countries, i.e. South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Surface ozone concentrations are estimated for the growing season (October to April) using photochemical modelling. Hourly mean modelled ozone concentrations ranged between 19.7 and 31.2 ppb, while maximums range between 28.9 and 61.9 ppb, and are near 30 ppb over South Africa and Zambia, while in Zimbabwe, they exceed 40 ppb and translate into monthly AOT40 values of over 3,000 ppb h in five of the seven months of the growing season. This study suggests that surface ozone may pose a threat to agricultural production in southern African, particularly in Zimbabwe.     

ESF Workshop

Dioxin and PCB monitoring programs for food and feeding stuff in most countries of the world, including many European Countries are currently inadequate. Better control of food production lines and food processing procedures is needed to minimize entry of dioxin to the food chain and will help to avoid dioxin contamination accidents. This would also improve the ability to trace back a possible contamination to its source. European guidelines for monitoring programs should be established to ensure comparable and meaningful results. These guidelines should define the minimum requirements for the design of monitoring programs, analytical methods, and quality assurance. Though data from Northern Europe shows that the general population exposure to dioxin and PCB has decreased during the last ten years these compounds continue to be a risk of accidental contamination of the food chain. The most prominent recent example is the Belgian dioxin contamination of feeding stuff in 1999. The Belgian dioxin contamination was not detected due to dioxin monitoring programs but by their direct biological effects seen in animals. Four other cases of dioxin contamination have been detected in Europe since 1997 due to local monitoring programs. One of them (citrus pulp pellets 1998) was in a much larger scale than the Belgian dioxin contamination. The general population's exposure to dioxins and PCBs is still in the same range (1-4 pg WHO-TEQ/kg body weight and day) as the recently revised WHO tolerable daily intake (TDI). There is concern that short-term high level exposure to dioxins, furans, and PCB may cause biological effects on the human fetal development and further research is required. Further actions to control sources building on considerable advances already made in many countries may need to be supplemented by measures to prevent direct contamination of feeding stuff or food to reduce general population exposure further.