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Climate change impacts on tree crop suitability in Southeast Asia

Regional Environmental Change - Understanding popular attitudes to climate change can be important in developing effective climate adaptation responses. However, in the Pacific region, which is at...     

Field Comparison of two NO2 Passive Samplers to Assess Spatial Variation

Two-week average NO₂ concentrations were measured in Amsterdam (NL), Huddersfield (UK) and Prague (CZ) at 80 sites in each study area, to assess small area spatial variation, using a tube type and a badge type passive sampler. The badges appeared to be less robust than the tubes. The lower detection limit for tubes and badges was 3.7 and 0.91 µg/m³, respectively for fortnightly measurements. Accuracy of the samplers was determined with reference methods (chemiluminescence). The mean ratio of the concentration measured by diffusion tube over that by the reference method was 1.16, 1.03 and 0.77 in Amsterdam, Huddersfield and Prague, respectively. Standardizing the badges for the results obtained in Amsterdam, the relative mean ratio of the concentration measured by the badges over that by the reference method was 0.95 and 0.58 in Huddersfield and Prague, respectively. NO₂ concentrations measured by the two designs did not differ significantly. Mean NO₂ concentrations were 36, 26 and 22 µg/m³ in Amsterdam, Huddersfield and Prague, respectively. The precision of duplicate tubes and badges was 8% and 11%, respectively. Both samplers are suitable for determining real variation in small area NO₂ concentrations in the ranges which occurred. It is concluded that low-cost, simple NO₂ passive samplers can provide reliable information about variation in NO₂ concentrations within urban or rural areas on a small spatial scale. Based on its robustness and its precision, tubes were preferred over badges.     

Coral reef aerosol emissions in response to irradiance stress in the Great Barrier Reef,Australia

We investigate the correlation between stress-related compounds produced by corals of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and local atmospheric properties—an issue that goes to the core of the coral ecosystem’s ability to survive climate change. We relate the variability in a satellite decadal time series of fine-mode aerosol optical depth (AOD) to a coral stress metric, formulated as a function of irradiance, water clarity, and tide, at Heron Island in the southern GBR. We found that AOD was correlated with the coral stress metric, and the correlation increased at low wind speeds, when horizontal advection of air masses was low and the production of non-biogenic aerosols was minimal. We posit that coral reefs may be able to protect themselves from irradiance stress during calm weather by affecting the optical properties of the atmosphere and local incident solar radiation.     

Abandonment landscapes: user attitudes,alternative futures and land management in Castro Laboreiro,Portugal

Land abandonment is an important process for the European Union, which primarily occurs in less productive, remote and mountainous areas with unfavourable conditions for agriculture. Future management directions of these abandonment areas are under debate, with increasing calls to adjust policies to the local characteristics, including the promotion of rewilding and the management of succession of larger areas of less-productive land. While there is an increase in studies focusing on the environmental impacts of land abandonment, there are few studies that focus on the perceptions of abandonment by different user groups, even though an understanding of local perceptions, opportunities and trade-offs associated with changing land management is crucial for landscape-related policies and planning measures. In a case study in Northern Portugal, we used a combination of statements, photograph rating exercises and open questions to assess the perceptions of local inhabitants, visitors and experts regarding land abandonment and their preferences of different possible trajectories after abandonment. The results show that all user groups have a negative response towards abandonment and associate it mainly with negative emotions and the loss of heritage and traditions. The assessment of the different abandonment stages and outcomes clearly yielded different preferences and explanations, which can be used as input for finding a common ground for landscape management, reducing conflict and as a starting point for a more spatially targeted and nuanced management approach.

     

Tipping Points and Climate Change: Metaphor Between Science and the Media

Over the past decade, scientists and journalists have prominently utilized the metaphor of a tipping point for drastic, irreversible and dangerous climate change. This paper shows how the tipping point metaphor became a multi-purpose bridge between science and the news media, describing how its meaning and use developed and diversified in interaction between these two domains. Within the scientific domain, the metaphor developed from a rhetorical device conveying a warning of drastic, irreversible and dangerous climate change to a theoretical concept driving empirical research. The news media soon picked up the tipping point metaphor for abrupt and dangerous climate change, turning it into a common part of the journalistic lexicon. Moreover, both science and the news media developed another, societal use of the tipping point metaphor, calling for radical societal change to avoid climate change catastrophe. The tipping point metaphor is hence not a monolithic notion but a highly versatile concept and expression, allowing it to be used for various communicative purposes by distinct stakeholders in different contexts.     

Closing remarks: novel approaches to complex societal change and sustainability

This paper summarizes some personal impressions of the 7th conference of the International Complex Systems Society, co-organized with “Future Earth”, held in Stockholm on August 24–26, 2017. The main point is that it is urgent and important to consider the sustainability conundrum as long-term, society-driven one, and to place societal dynamics at the core of how we, as a global society, came to this point, how ongoing dynamics are driving us towards a tipping point, and which role the Information and Communication Technology revolution plays in that process. A much wider involvement of the social sciences is essential. This also requires major changes in our thinking about sustainability—we need to develop an approach in which change is the natural state of affairs and societies attempt to impose stability on the dynamics involved. We need to focus on learning from the past, about the present, but above all for the future. And we need to shift from an entity-focused approach to a relational one, which pays more attention to contexts and networks. Other issues raised by such a shift in our thinking are about the role of science, the adoption of complex systems approaches and a few others that the paper points to.     

The effect of summer drought on the predictability of local extinctions in a butterfly metapopulation

The ecological impacts of extreme climatic events on population dynamics and community composition are profound and predominantly negative. Using extensive data of an ecological model system, we tested whether predictions from ecological models remain robust when environmental conditions are outside the bounds of observation. We observed a 10-fold demographic decline of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) metapopulation on the Åland islands, Finland in the summer of 2018 and used climatic and satellite data to demonstrate that this year was an anomaly with low climatic water balance values and low vegetation productivity indices across Åland. Population growth rates were strongly associated with spatiotemporal variation in climatic water balance. Covariates shown previously to affect the extinction probability of local populations in this metapopulation were less informative when populations were exposed to severe drought during the summer months. Our results highlight the unpredictable responses of natural populations to extreme climatic events.     

A novel method to determine buffer strip effectiveness on deep soils

Unfertilized buffer strips (BS) generally improve surface water quality. High buffer strip effectiveness (BSE) has been reported for sloping shallow aquifers, but experimental data for plain landscapes with deeply permeable soils is lacking. We tested a novel method to determine BSE on a 20-m-deep, permeable sandy soil. Discharge from soil to ditch was temporarily collected in an in-stream reservoir to measure its quantity and quality, both for a BS and a reference (REF) treatment. Treatments were replicated once for the first, and three times for the next three leaching seasons. No significant BSE was obtained for nitrogen and phosphorus species in the reservoirs. Additionally, water samples were taken from the upper groundwater below the treatments. The effect of BS for nitrate was much bigger in upper groundwater than in the reservoirs that also collected groundwater from greater depths that were not influenced by the treatments. We conclude that measuring changes in upper groundwater to assess BSE is only valid under specific hydrogeological conditions. We propose an alternative experimental set-up for future research, including extra measurements before installing the BS and REF treatments to deal with spatial and temporal variability. The use of such data as covariates will increase the power of statistical tests by decreasing between-reservoir variability.     

Measuring the radium quartet (Ra, Ra, Ra, Ra) in seawater samples using gamma spectrometry

Radium isotopes are widely used in marine studies (eg. to trace water masses, to quantify mixing processes or to study submarine groundwater discharge). While ²²⁸Ra and ²²⁶Ra are usually measured using gamma spectrometry, short-lived Ra isotopes (²²⁴Ra and ²²³Ra) are usually measured using a Radium Delayed Coincidence Counter (RaDeCC). Here we show that the four radium isotopes can be analyzed using gamma spectrometry. We report ²²⁶Ra, ²²⁸Ra, ²²⁴Ra, ²²³Ra activities measured using low-background gamma spectrometry in standard samples, in water samples collected in the vicinity of our laboratory (La Palme and Vaccarès lagoons, France) but also in seawater samples collected in the plume of the Amazon river, off French Guyana (AMANDES project). The ²²³Ra and ²²⁴Ra activities determined in these samples using gamma spectrometry were compared to the activities determined using RaDeCC. Activities determined using the two techniques are in good agreement. Uncertainties associated with the ²²⁴Ra activities are similar for the two techniques. RaDeCC is more sensitive for the detection of low ²²³Ra activities. Gamma spectrometry thus constitutes an alternate method for the determination of short-lived Ra isotopes.