Spatial elements of mortality risk in old-growth forests

For many species of long-lived organisms, such as trees, survival appears to be the most critical vital rate affecting population persistence. However, methods commonly used to quantify tree death, such as relating tree mortality risk solely to diameter growth, almost certainly do not account for important spatial processes. Our goal in this study was to detect and, if present, to quantify the relevance of such processes. For this purpose, we examined purely spatial aspects of mortality for four species, Abies concolor, Abies magnifica, Calocedrus decurrens, and Pinus lambertiana, in an old-growth conifer forest in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA. The analysis was performed using data from nine fully mapped long-term monitoring plots. In three cases, the results unequivocally supported the inclusion of spatial information in models used to predict mortality. For Abies concolor, our results suggested that growth rate may not always adequately capture increased mortality risk due to competition. We also found evidence of a facilitative effect for this species, with mortality risk decreasing with proximity to conspecific neighbors. For Pinus lambertiana, mortality risk increased with density of conspecific neighbors, in keeping with a mechanism of increased pathogen or insect pressure (i.e., a Janzen-Connell type effect). Finally, we found that models estimating risk of being crushed were strongly improved by the inclusion of a simple index of spatial proximity. Not only did spatial indices improve models, those improvements were relevant for mortality prediction. For P. lambertiana, spatial factors were important for estimation of mortality risk regardless of growth rate. For A. concolor, although most of the population fell within spatial conditions in which mortality risk was well described by growth, trees that died occurred outside those conditions in a disproportionate fashion. Furthermore, as stands of A. concolor become increasingly dense, such spatial factors are likely to become increasingly important. In general, models that fail to account for spatial pattern are at risk of failure as conditions change.     

Behavioural inertia places a top marine predator at risk from environmental change in the Benguela upwelling system

In variable environments, organisms are bound to track environmental changes if they are to survive. Most marine mammals and seabirds are colonial, central-place foragers with long-term breeding-site fidelity. When confronted with environmental change, such species are potentially constrained in their ability to respond to these changes. For example, if environmental conditions deteriorate within their limited foraging range, long-lived species favour adult survival and abandon their current breeding effort, which ultimately influences population dynamics. Should poor conditions persist over several seasons, breeding-site fidelity may force animals to continue breeding in low-quality habitats instead of emigrating towards more profitable grounds. We assessed the behavioural response of a site-faithful central-place forager, the Cape gannet Morus capensis, endemic to the Benguela upwelling system, to a rapid shift in the distribution and abundance of its preferred prey, small pelagic shoaling fish. We studied the distribution and the abundance of prey species, and the diet, foraging distribution, foraging effort, energy requirements, and breeding success of gannets at Malgas Island (South Africa) over four consecutive breeding seasons. Facing a rapid depletion of preferred food within their foraging range, Cape gannets initially increased their foraging effort in search of their natural prey. However, as pelagic fish became progressively scarcer, breeding birds resorted to scavenging readily available discards from a nearby demersal fishery. Their chicks cannot survive on such a diet, and during our 4-year study, numbers of breeding birds at the colony decreased by 40% and breeding success of the remaining birds was very low. Such behavioural inflexibility caused numbers of Cape gannets breeding in Namibia to crash by 95% following over-fishing of pelagic fish in the 1970s. In the context of rapid environmental changes, breeding-site fidelity of long-lived species may increase the risk of local or even global extinction, rendering these species particularly vulnerable to global change.     

Robustness of variance and autocorrelation as indicators of critical slowing down

Ecosystems close to a critical threshold lose resilience, in the sense that perturbations can more easily push them into an alternative state. Recently, it has been proposed that such loss of resilience may be detected from elevated autocorrelation and variance in the fluctuations of the state of an ecosystem due to critical slowing down; the underlying generic phenomenon that occurs at critical thresholds. Here we explore the robustness of autocorrelation and variance as indicators of imminent critical transitions. We show both analytically and in simulations that variance may sometimes decrease close to a transition. This can happen when environmental factors fluctuate stochastically and the ecosystem becomes less sensitive to these factors near the threshold, or when critical slowing down reduces the ecosystem's capacity to follow high-frequency fluctuations in the environment. In addition, when available data is limited, variance can be systematically underestimated due to the prevalence of low frequencies close to a transition. By contrast, autocorrelation always increases toward critical transitions in our analyses. To exemplify this point, we provide cases of rising autocorrelation and increasing or decreasing variance in time series prior to past climate transitions.     

Trophic cascade induced by molluscivore predator alters pore-water biogeochemistry via competitive release of prey

Effects of predation may cascade down the food web. By alleviating interspecific competition among prey, predators may promote biodiversity, but the precise mechanisms of how predators alter competition have remained elusive. Here we report on a predator-exclosure experiment carried out in a tropical intertidal ecosystem, providing evidence for a three-level trophic cascade induced by predation by molluscivore Red Knots (Calidris canutus) that affects pore water biogeochemistry. In the exclosures the knots' favorite prey (Dosinia isocardia) became dominant and reduced the individual growth rate in an alternative prey (Loripes lucinalis). Dosinia, a suspension feeder, consumes suspended particulate organic matter (POM), whereas Loripes is a facultative mixotroph, partly living on metabolites produced by sulfur-oxidizing chemoautotrophic bacteria, but also consuming suspended POM. Reduced sulfide concentrations in the exclosures suggest that, without predation on Dosinia, stronger competition for suspended POM forces Loripes to rely on energy produced by endosymbiotic bacteria, thus leading to an enhanced uptake of sulfide from the surrounding pore water. As sulfide is toxic to most organisms, this competition-induced diet shift by Loripes may detoxify the environment, which in turn may facilitate other species. The inference that predators affect the toxicity of their environment via a multi-level trophic cascade is novel, but we believe it may be a general phenomenon in detritus-based ecosystems.     

Suppressing antagonistic bioengineering feedbacks doubles restoration success

In a seagrass restoration project, we explored the potential for enhancing the restoration process by excluding antagonistic engineering interactions (i.e., biomechanical warfare) between two ecosystem engineers: the bioturbating lugworm Arenicola marina and the sediment-stabilizing seagrass Zostera noltii Hornem. Applying a shell layer underneath half of our seagrass transplants successfully reduced adult lugworm density by over 80% and reduced lugworm-induced microtopography (a proxy for lugworm disturbance) at the wave-sheltered site. At the wave-exposed site adult lugworm densities and microtopography were already lower than at the sheltered site but were further reduced in the shell-treated units. Excluding lugworms and their bioengineering effects corresponded well with a strongly enhanced seagrass growth at the wave-sheltered site, which was absent at the exposed site. Enhanced seagrass growth in the present study was fully assigned to the removal of lugworms' negative engineering effects and not to any (indirect) evolving effects such as an altered biogeochemistry or sediment-stabilizing effects by the shell layer. The context-dependency implies that seagrass establishment at the exposed site is not constrained by negative ecosystem-engineering interactions only, but also by overriding physical stresses causing poor growth conditions. Present findings underline that, in addition to recent emphasis on considering positive (facilitating) interactions in ecological theory and practice, it is equally important to consider negative engineering interactions between ecosystem-engineering species. Removal of such negative interactions between ecosystem-engineering species can give a head start to the target species at the initial establishment phase, when positive engineering feedbacks by the target species on itself are still lacking. Though our study was carried out in a marine environment with variable levels of wave disturbance, similar principles may be expected to apply to other ecosystems that are inhabited by ecosystem engineers.     

Quantifying summed fullerene nC60 and related transformation products in water using LC LTQ Orbitrap MS and application to environmental samples

The application of engineered nanomaterials increases strongly. Development of analytical techniques and their application to environmental samples is essential for human and environmental risk assessment of the nanoparticles. The objective of this study was to develop a sensitive analytical method to quantify nC(60) in water, using accurate mass screening liquid chromatography-hybrid linear ion trap Orbitrap mass spectrometry. nC(60) can be transformed by oxidation, reduction and photochemical reaction. Therefore, the formation of some transformation products of nC(60) was studied as well. Finally, the developed analytical method was applied to surface water samples from several locations in the Netherlands. The developed method enabled to detect and quantify aqueous concentrations of the summed nC(60) and its transformation products as low as 5 ng/L. It was observed that nC(60) transformation products exceed quantities of the parent C(60). Despite the high sensitivity of the developed method, no nC(60) or transformation products were detected in an array of Dutch surface waters. This might be due to low emissions, losses in the aqueous phase by sedimentation, sorption or further transformation processes.     

Parameters of well-being and subjective health and their relationship with residential traffic noise exposure--a representative evaluation in Switzerland

In the present paper, the associations between residential traffic noise exposure from the noise sources--road, rail and aircraft--and self-reported indicators of health and well-being are investigated in a representative sample of the Swiss population. The study is based on record linkage of the Swiss GIS Noise Database (SonBase) and the Swiss Household Panel (SHP), a large panel survey with more than 10,000 respondents all over the country. A range of exposure-effect relationships of noise exposure and parameters of health and well-being such as self-reported health status, satisfaction with health, sleep disturbances, the intensity of the wish to move from the current residence as well as the awareness of "noise problems" at the place of living were investigated. Both unadjusted as well as models that controlled for age, sex, socioeconomic status, degree of urbanization at the place of residence, and personal living conditions were developed. A contribution of residential noise exposure as regards subjective estimates of health cannot been ruled out, but must be put into perspective as the effects of exposure measures were of rather small magnitude, especially compared to well-established determinants of health. Against the background of the explanatory power of classic health predictors, the present analyses allow one to gage the contribution of residential noise exposure on subjective health outcomes from a more general, integral point of view.     

Toxicity of zinc oxide nanoparticles in the earthworm, Eisenia fetida and subcellular fractionation of Zn

The extensive use of nanoparticles (NPs) in a variety of applications has raised great concerns about their environmental fate and biological effects. This study examined the impact of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and salts on ZnO NP dispersion/solubility and toxicity to the earthworm Eisenia fetida. To be able to better evaluate the toxicity of NPs, exposure in agar and on filter paper was proposed for enabling a comparison of the importance of different uptake routes. A dose-related increase in mortality was observed in earthworms exposed in agar with almost 100% mortality after 96 h exposure to the highest concentration (1000 mg ZnO/kg agar). Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) showed that the addition of salts enhanced the aggregation of ZnO NPs in agar and consequently affected the dissolution behavior and biological availability of the particles. On filter paper, mortality was the highest at the lowest exposure concentration (50 mg ZnO/L) and seemed to decrease with increasing exposure levels. TEM images of ZnO showed that the solubility and morphology of NPs were changed dramatically upon the addition of humic acids (HA). The subcellular distribution pattern of Zn in earthworms after 96 h exposure in agar and on filter paper showed that the Zn taken up via dietary ZnO particles (from agar) was mainly found in organelles and the cytosol while the Zn accumulated as soluble Zn from filter paper was mainly distributed in cell membranes and tissues. Antioxidant enzymatic activities (SOD, CAT, and GSH-px) were investigated in the worms surviving the toxicity tests. A slight increase of SOD activities was observed at the lowest exposure dose of ZnO (50mg/kg), followed by a decrease at 100mg/kg in the agar cubes. Activities of both CAT and GSH-Px enzymes were not significantly influenced in the worms exposed to agar, although a slight decrease at 500 and 1000 mg ZnO/kg agar was observed. A similar change trend of SOD activities was observed for the earthworms on filter paper, but a significant decrease began at a higher ZnO NP concentration of 500 mg ZnO/L. The use of soil extracts instead of deionized water (DW) to simulate a realistic exposure system significantly reduced the toxicity of the ZnO NPs on filter paper, which increases the predictive power of filter paper toxicity tests for the environmental risk assessment of NPs.     

Scenario analysis of perspective change to support climate adaptation: lessons from a pilot study on Dutch river management

Climate adaptation is a complex task surrounded by uncertainty. To support climate adaptation policies, a new scenario approach is pursued to explore possible discontinuous future developments of societal perspectives on climate adaptation issues. The scenario approach was tested for a case study on Dutch river management. In a series of scenario development workshops, a select group of stakeholders explored the perspectives on the management of the River Meuse in the past, present, and future. The process was supported by an analytical perspectives mapping tool to illustrate and analyze the development of perspectives over time. The process and analytical tools contributed to insight into the drivers of perspective change for the case study at hand. Moreover, the stakeholders highlighted the potential of the approach for water management policy for creating awareness about the plurality of perspectives and the dynamics of perspective change, monitoring perspectives and perspective change as part of a flexible policy approach, and anticipating on the occurrence of shock events. Further work is required to better represent the social dynamics of perspectives change, to better empirically ground the perspective change model, and to apply integrated water models in the scenario development process to assess water–society interactions.