Challenges of simulating complex environmental systems at the landscape scale: A controversial dialogue between two cups of espresso

With the advancement of computational systems and the development of model integration concepts, complexity of environmental model systems increased. In contrast to that, theory and knowledge about > environmental systems as well as the capability for environmental systems analyses remained, to a large extent, unchanged. As a consequence, model conceptualization, data gathering, and validation, have faced new challenges that hardly can be tackled by modellers alone. In this discourse-like review, we argue that modelling with reliable simulations of human-environmental interactions necessitate linking modelling and simulation research much stronger to science fields such as landscape ecology, community ecology, eco-hydrology, etc. It thus becomes more and more important to identify the adequate degree of complexity in environmental models (which is not only a technical or methodological question), to ensure data availability, and to test model performance. Even equally important, providing problem specific answers to environmental problems using simulation tools requires addressing end-user and stakeholder requirements during early stages of problem development. In doing so, we avoid modelling and simulation as an end of its own.     

Bridging the gap between ecophysiological and genetic knowledge to assess the adaptive potential of European beech

In this study we aimed to combine knowledge of the ecophysiology and genetics of European beech to assess the potential of this species to adapt to environmental change. Therefore, we performed field and experimental studies on the genetic and ecophysiological functioning of beech. This information was integrated through a coupled genetic–ecophysiological model for individual trees that was parameterized with information derived from our own studies or from the literature. Using the model, we evaluated the adaptive response of beech stands in two ways: firstly, through sensitivity analyses (of initial genetic diversity, pollen dispersal distance, heritability of selected phenotypic traits, and forest management, representing disturbances) and secondly, through the evaluation of the responses of phenotypic traits and their genetic diversity to four management regimes applied to 10 study plots distributed over Western Europe. The model results indicate that the interval between recruitment events strongly affects the rate of adaptive response, because selection is most severe during the early stages of forest development. Forest management regimes largely determine recruitment intervals and thereby the potential for adaptive responses. Forest management regimes also determine the number of mother trees that contribute to the next generation and thereby the genetic variation that is maintained. Consequently, undisturbed forests maintain the largest amount of genetic variation, as recruitment intervals approach the longevity of trees and many mother trees contribute to the next generation. However, undisturbed forests have the slowest adaptive response, for the same reasons.Gene flow through pollen dispersal may compensate for the loss in genetic diversity brought about by selection. The sensitivity analysis showed that the total genetic diversity of a 2 ha stand is not affected by gene flow if the pollen distance distribution is varied from highly left-skewed to almost flat. However, a stand with a prevailing short-distance gene flow has a more pronounced spatial genetic structure than stands with equal short- and long-distance gene flows. The build-up of a spatial genetic structure is also strongly determined by the recruitment interval. Overall, the modelling results indicate that European beech has high adaptive potential to environmental change if recruitment intervals are short and many mother trees contribute to the next generation.The findings have two implications for modelling studies on the impacts of climate change on forests. Firstly: it cannot be taken for granted that parameter values remain constant over a time horizon of even a few generations – this is particularly important for threshold values subject to strong selection, like budburst, frost hardiness, drought tolerance, as used in species area models. Secondly: forest management should be taken into account in future assessments, as management affects the rate of adaptive response and thereby the response on trees and forests to environmental change, and because few forests are unmanaged. We conclude that a coupled ecophysiological and quantitative genetic tree model is a useful tool for such studies.     

Fetal brain imaging in isolated congenital heart defects – a systematic review and meta-analysis

Congenital heart defects (CHDs) are associated with neurodevelopmental (ND) delay. This study aims to assess evidence for impaired prenatal brain development, in fetuses with CHD. A systematical search was performed, and 34 studies evaluating the fetal brain [magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) or ultrasound] in isolated CHD were included (1990–2015). Data regarding cerebral abnormalities, head circumference growth and middle cerebral artery flow were extracted. Prenatal MRI was studied in ten articles (445 fetuses), resulting in a pooled prevalence of 18% (95%CI −6%; 42%) for combined structural and acquired cerebral abnormalities. Prenatal head circumference was studied in 13 articles (753 fetuses), resulting in a pooled z-score of −0.51 (95%CI −0.84; −0.18). Doppler was studied in 21 articles (1412 fetuses), resulting in a lower middle cerebral artery pulsatility index (z-score −0.70 95%CI −0.99; −0.41) in left-sided CHD only. We conclude that prenatal MRI and ultrasound demonstrate brain abnormalities, delay in head growth and brainsparing in subgroups of CHD. However, large MRI studies are scarce, and ultrasound data are biased towards severe and left-sided CHD. Long-term follow-up studies correlating prenatal findings with postnatal ND outcome are limited, and data are lacking to support counseling families regarding ND outcome based on prenatal findings suggestive of altered brain development. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Proteomic insights into Lysinibacillus sp.-mediated biosolubilization of manganese

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - There has been alarming depletion of manganese (Mn) reserves owing to the ongoing extensive mining operations for catering the massive industrial...     

An in vitro/in vivo screening assay as a sensitive tool to assess endocrine disruptive activity in surface water

Adult male fathead minnow were exposed for 14 or 28-days under flow-through conditions to undiluted filtered water samples from the rivers Meuse and Rhine in the Netherlands. The experiment included two vessels per treatment each containing 10 fish and samples of five fish were taken after 14 and 28 days. Additional groups were exposed to 17alpha-ethinylestradiol (EE2) as a reference and untreated drinking water as a negative control. Major endpoints examined included induction of vitellogenin (VTG) synthesis, VTG mRNA activity, hepato- and gonadosomatic indices (HSI and GSI) and gonadal histology. No significant difference was recorded in body weight or mean GSI values between the various treatments. Only exposure to Meuse water resulted in significantly higher HSI means after 14 days. Histological examination showed no apparent effects on gonadal tissue except for eosinophilic blood plasma in fish exposed to Meuse water or EE2. After 14 and 28 days, elevated VTG and VTG mRNA levels were measured in most livers of the fish exposed to Meuse water, but not in the fish exposed to Rhine water. This was confirmed by measuring estrogenic responses in the in vitro ER CALUX assay. Induction of VTG synthesis proved to be the most sensitive endpoint in the Non Spawning Male Fish Assay for in vivo detection of bio-available estrogenic activity supplementary to a sensitive in vitro assay. The other endpoints examined varied too much and required a higher number of fish or replicates to achieve sufficient power for statistical testing making them less animal friendly.