Analysis of two-way layout of count data with negative binomial variation

A number of methods has been proposed for dealing with single-factor or factorial experiments when the requirements for performing the normal theory analysis of variance procedure are not satisfied. This paper suggests the use of the likelihood ratio statistic for testing the main effects and the interaction between the factors in two-way layout of count data following negative binomial distributions with a common dispersion parameter. The likelihood ratio statistic for testing the equality of the dispersion parameters of several groups of count data is also derived. The methods is illustrated by an example concerning the study of spatial and temporal variation of bacterial counts.     

Robust graphical methods for diagnosing trend in irregularly spaced water quality time series

Graphical methods can play an important role in the reliable assessment of trends in typically ill behaved river quality data series both as diagnostic tools and as visual corroborative evidence when assumptions required for formal statistical tests are not met. Robust, graphically-oriented trend diagnosis procedures are presented for data series characterized by nonnormal populations, uneven time spacing, nonmonotonic trend and other factors which can create serious problems for standard parametric time series methods. Cleveland's robust locally weighted regression (RLWR) developed for investigating nonlinearity in x-y scatterplots is adapted as a robust/resistant smoothing filter for the analysis of irregular time series comprising quantitative observations. Low powered RLWR trend lines reveal temporally local phenomena, e.g. abrupt jumps (often associated with point source impacts) and periodicities, while higher powered RLWR yields smooth lines characterizing medium and longer term trends. Simple variants of Tukey smoothing concepts are developed for series with censored observations. Applications to Ontario river quality series reveal that graphical evidence is frequently sufficient to obviate the need for formal trend testing. The methods are generally applicable to most time series.     

Organochlorine and mercury residues in Swainson's and ferruginous hawk eggs collected in North and South Dakota, 1974–79

Residues of organochlorine pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and mercury were measured in eggs of Swainson's hawks (Buteo swainsoni) and ferruginous hawks (B. regalis) collected in North and South Dakota during 1974–79. DDE was the most common compound detected in the eggs, but residues were below levels known to have adverse effects on reproduction. Other organochlorine compounds and mercury were found at low levels. Eggs of ferruginous hawks tended to contain more compounds with higher residues than eggs of Swainson's hawks.     

The characteristics of size distribution of suspended particulates in the air for sulphates and selected metals in different areas and seasons

The characteristics of the distribution of particles by size were investigated for sulphates and selected metals (Pb, Fe, Mn, and Cu) in the air in two urban and an industrial area during the winter and summer periods using an Andersen cascade impactor.In the case of metals, but not sulphates, the character of the area affected the value of mass median diameter. Lowest values were obtained in a sparsely populated urban area, whereas in a densely populated urban area and in the industrial area the values were higher.In the industrial area a high correlation coefficient was found between sulphate and manganese, and between sulphate and lead, as well as a high value of the equivalent Mn²⁺/SO _inf4 ^sup2- ratio for the total sample. It may therefore be assumed that in the industrial area manganese produces a catalytic effect on SO₂ conversion to sulphate. Among the investigated metals lead stands out as a dominant cation which binds to the sulphate ion in the industrial and densely populated areas.     

Exploring data quality for some inorganic and organic constituents of inhalable particulate matter (PM10)

Quality assurance (QA) assessments of air pollution data sets provide a basis for evaluating the significance of various substances in the atmosphere. For non-criteria pollutants, QA results are seldom reported in the technical literature and are often difficult to estimate. The present report provides a summary of QA results such as recovery, precision and accuracy data. Of the six trace elements and nine organic constituents compared in detail, recoveries, laboratory precision and laboratory accuracy values were 100%, ±3% to ±19% and-2 to-13% for the former group and 69% to 98%, ±7% to 23% and-15 to-34% for the later group. System precision varied from ±22% to ±47% for the trace elements and ±42% to ±83% for the organic constituents. Limitations in the interpretation of non-criteria particulate-phase pollutant data bases are discussed with some emphasis placed on receptor-modelling and risk assessment applications. Finally, the relevance of NBS certified materials for QA estimates in non-criteria air pollutant studies is also reviewed.     

Population monitoring for genetic damage induced by environmental physical and chemical agents

The short-term tests performed in vitro on different systems, from phage to human cells, or in vivo, on laboratory animals, allow only a qualitative estimate of the action of mutagenic agents, and the extrapolation of such experimental results to man may encounter many difficulties.Direct biomonitoring of populations exposed to chemicals could represent a more realistic approach for an evaluation of the hazards to man. Certain methods are still under development. Nevertheless, other ones can already by used routinely, e.g. the cytogenetic observations on peripheral blood lymphocytes and the Ames test for mutagenic substances in urine, and can provide useful suggestions how to set threshold limits for chemical substances encountered in the working environment.     

Changes in levels of organochlorines in woodcock wings from 1971 to 1975

Wings from woodcock (Philohela minor) were first monitored for organochlorine pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in the eastern U.S. in 1971. Regional differences in these compounds were clearly demonstrated and baseline residue levels were obtained for later comparisons. An expanded sampling of wings in 1972 revealed that residues in wings of adult woodcock may differ significantly from those in immatures, and that residues of several important agricultural insecticides and PCBs had declined significantly. More extensive sampling was undertaken in 1975 to determine if changes in residue levels had taken place in the intervening years. PCBs, mirex, and heptachlor epoxide increased significantly between 1972 and 1975 in adult woodcock wings. In immature woodcock wings mirex, dieldrin, and PCBs increased significantly between 1972 and 1975, but DDT residues decreased significantly.     

Dose-time-response functions for toxic chemicals

In many situations, the effect of a toxic chemical on a biological system depends on both the intensity and the duration of exposure. The dependence on the time dimension can be the expression of a range of processes including the physical accumulation of toxic chemicals or their metabolites and the functional accumulation of damage. Measures and functions that have been used to describe this dependence are reviewed.Some of these functions are compared through a case study of the neurotoxicity of methylmercury. Use is made of data that indicates a dependency between the blood concentration at which monkeys were exposed and the length of time before damage was detected. Several exposure functions are fitted to these data and their appropriateness is compared. Using the most appropriate function, an exposure-response relationship is developed using probit analysis. An alternative data analysis procedure is also investigated. The apparent threshold after a 100 day exposure is estimated to be greater by a factor of 3–5 compared to the threshold for chronic exposure. Applying this factor to man, the blood concentration threshold for chronic exposure is estimated to be 40–170 ppb, a finding consistent with recent reports of neurological damage in humans exposed below the generally accepted threshold.     

Problems of correlation of global and local monitoring of air pollution

1. The Air Polluttion Monitoring System has got a significant development of late, which is in direct relation with a considerable extention and improvement of the observation network in cities and industrial areas, with creation of a new network for assessing regional and global background of the atmosphere pollution, as well as with the wide involvement of meteorologists to monitoring organization.
2. While developing a new global monitoring system, it is necessary to take into account its relationship with the local monitoring within the region of air pollution sources, i.e. at the \lsimpact\rs level. The need in such an account is dictated first of all by the physics of pollutant spreading that states: changes in air pollution over large territories must be in a certain agreement with greater changes in the vicinity of emission sources. Methods applied in the global and local monitoring have also a number of common peculiarities. White organizing regional network for observations of the background pollution of the atmosphere twin stations (one of the pair of stations located outside the city boundaries in a small community, and the other, in the nearest city with the population of 200–400 thousand inhabitants) were established in the U.S.S.R. and in a number of socialist countries in Europe.
3. Implementation of the twin-station principles in the U.S.S.R. has contributed to data interpretation and representativity assessment as well as to correction of the station location. Observation results from the Soviet background stations and those abroad have been compared by now according to a number of indices.
4. The correlation of monitoring systems of various scales tells positively both on mutual improvement and completion of observational methods. The methods of obtaining integral characteristics of air pollution were used for the global monitoring, in particular spectral actinometric observations and chemical analysis of the precipitation composition. Now they find still wider employment. Thus methods of spectral actinometric measurements and data processing were used to estimate the degree of aerosol pollution of a number of industrial centres. The theory of solar radiation spreading and aerosol contents determination in urban atmosphere has also been developed. It is a generalization of an earlier developed theory, used to estimate global atmosphere pollution basing on actinometric data. The organization of precipitation collection and analysis on a network of stations around Leningrad and in Donbass area enables us to compare the admixture content in precipitations falling in industrial and agricultural areas.
5. A considerable increase of possibilities to measure microconcentrations of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and of a number of other pollutants is connected with the use of solid solvents for sampling. Their use will allow to avoid establishment of special laboratories at background stations and only send samples by post for their analysis in centralized laboratories.

They will also allow to considerably increase precision and accuracy of measurements. The international comparisons of methods of air pollution measurements on the background level allow to judge about the effiency of these methods.     

Test of a Modelling System for Estimating Nitrogen Leaching – A Pilot Study in a Small Agricultural Catchment

Nitrogen leaching is a world-wide concern for the quality of ground- and surfacewater. Measures to abate this is still limited by a lack of understanding mechanisms behind all factors describing the leaching process, time lags between countermeasures and improvement in waterquality and spatial distribution of nitrogen leaching. The purpose of this study was to do an initial test of the SOILNDB model system which is built on the existing mechanistic SOIL and SOILN models and an automatic parameterization procedure for use of simplified input data. The test was done by simulating nitrogen leaching from each of the 150 fields in a small catchment during a three-year study period. The simulated mean root-zone nitrogen leaching rate from all the fields in the catchment was compared to measurements of nitrogen flow in the stream draining the catchment and showed good agreement in between-year dynamics.