Application of a checklist for quality assistance in environmental modelling to an energy model

Large, complex energy models present considerable challenges to develop and test. Uncertainty assessments of such models provide only partial guidance on the quality of the results. We have developed a model quality assistance checklist to aid in this purpose. The model checklist provides diagnostic output in the form of a set of pitfalls for the model application. The checklist is applied here to an energy model for the problem of assessing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Use of the checklist suggests that results on this issue are contingent on a number of assumptions that are highly value-laden. When these assumptions are held fixed, the model is deemed capable of producing moderately robust results of relevance to climate policy over the longer term. Checklist responses also indicate that a number of details critical to policy choices or outcomes on this issue are not captured in the model, and model results should therefore be supplemented with alternative analyses.     

SI-traceable certification of Cu, Cr, Cd and Pb in sediment and fly ash candidate reference materials

Many fields in environmental analytical chemistry deal with very low limits and thresholds as set by governmental legislations or transnational regulations. The need for the accuracy, comparability and traceability of analytical measurements in environmental analytical chemistry has significantly increased and total uncertainties are even asked for by accreditation bodies of environmental laboratories. This paper addresses achieving these goals to guarantee accuracy, quality control, quality assurance or validation of a method by means of certified reference materials. The assessment of analytical results in certified reference materials must be as accurate as possible and every single step has to be fully evaluated. This paper presents the SI-traceable certification of Cu, Cr, Cd and Pb contents in geological and environmentally relevant matrices (three sediments and one fly ash sample). Certification was achieved using isotope dilution (ID) ICPMS as a primary method of measurement. In order to reduce significantly the number of analytical steps and intermediate samples a multiple spiking approach was developed. The full methodology is documented and total uncertainty budgets are calculated for all certified values. A non-element specific sample digestion process was optimised. All wet chemical digestion methods examined resulted in a more or less pronounced amount of precipitate. It is demonstrated that these precipitates originate mainly from secondary formation of fluorides (essentially CaF2) and that their formation takes place after isotopic equilibration. The contribution to the total uncertainty of the final values resulting from the formation of such precipitates was in general < 0.1% for all investigated elements. Other sources of uncertainty scrutinised included the moisture content determination, procedural blank determination, cross-contamination from the different spike materials, correction for spectral interferences, instrumental background and deadtime effects, as well as the use of either certified values or IUPAC data in the IDMS equation. The average elemental content in the sediment samples was 30-130 micrograms g-1 for Pb, 0.5-3 micrograms g-1 for Cd and 50-70 micrograms g-1 for Cu. Cr was measured in one sample and was about 60 micrograms g-1. The concentrations in the fly ash sample were up to 2 orders of magnitude higher. Expanded uncertainty for the investigated elements was about 3% (coverae factor k = 2) except for Cr, (measured by high resolution ICPMS), for which the expanded uncertainty was about 7% (k = 2).     

Atrazine and Alachlor Inputs to Surface and Ground Waters in Irrigated Corn Cultivation Areas of Castilla-Leon Region, Spain

The inputs of atrazine and alachlor herbicides to surface and ground waters from irrigated areas dedicated to corn cultivation in the Castilla-León (C-L) region (Spain) as related to the application of both herbicides were studied. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) were used for monitoring the atrazine and alachlor concentrations in 98 water samples taken from these areas. Seventy-nine of the samples were of ground waters and 19 were of surface waters. The concentration ranges of the herbicides detected in the study period (October 1997–October 1998) were 0.04–25.3 g L^–1 in the surface waters and 0.04–3.45 g L^–1 in the ground waters for atrazine, and 0.06–31.9 g L^–1 in the surface waters and 0.05–4.85 g L^–1 in the ground waters in the case of alachlor. The highly significant correlation observed between the concentrations of both herbicides in the surface waters (r = 0.89, p < 0.001) pointed to a parallel transport of atrazine and alachlor to these waters. A study was made of the temporal evolution of the concentrations of both herbicides, and it was found a maximum recharge of atrazine in the ground waters for April 1998 and of alachlor in October 1997 and October 1998. The temporal evolution of the concentrations of both herbicides in surface waters was parallel. The highly significant correlations observed between atrazine concentrations determined by ELISA and by HPLC (r = 0.92, p < 0.001) and between alachlor concentrations also determined by both methods (r = 0.96, p < 0.001) confirmed the usefulness of ELISA for monitoring both herbicides in an elevated number of samples. Using HPLC, the presence in some waters of the alachlor ethanesulfonate (ESA) metabolite was found at a concentration range of 0.52–4.01 g L^–1. However the interference of ESA in the determination of alachlor by ELISA was negligible. The inputs of atrazine and alachlor to waters found in this study, especially the inputs to ground waters, could pose a risk for human health considering that some waters, though sporadically, are even used for human consumption.     

IMPACTS OF VISITORS ON SOIL AND VEGETATION OF THE RECREATIONAL AREA “NACIMIENTO DEL RÍO MUNDO” (CASTILLA-LA MANCHA, SPAIN)

This study examines the effects of recreational use on the soil and vegetation at a site of ecological importance (Nacimiento del Río Mundo, Albacete, Spain). The most visited sites showed increased soil compaction of approximately 50%, bare ground increase to 61 ± 10% and a decrease in richness (from 25 ± 2 to 15 ± 2 species), diversity (from 4.0 ± 0.1 to 2.7 ± 0.4) and stratification of plant species (from 80 ± 11 to 21 ± 4%). The most visited sites had 90% less plant species as compared to the least visited. Intense use was associated with the presence of nitrophilous plant and vegetal species with a morphology adapted to heavy trampling. The recreational areas showed a distribution pattern of impact radiating outwards from the most used and degraded point. At the most visited point, Los Chorros (the spring of the river), the impact radiated outwards for about 20 m. A pilot experiment examining the effects of one-year restriction to visitors for access to a formerly impacted area showed a plant cover increase by anthropic and not by native species of 57 percent units.     

Spatial properties of nutrient concentrations in the Baltic Sea

Using existing monitoring data, the present study attempts to characterize spatial patterns of surface water nutrients in the Baltic Sea. The analysis was made for two different spatial scales, differences between and within sub-basins.Non-parametric methods were chosen to reduce problems with the distributional properties of the data. By dividing the data into four seasons care was taken as to seasonality. To avoid bias due to different laboratory analysis, only data from Nordic countries were used, whose results did not apparently depart from each other. Bias due to different sampling frequency was another problem. This was reduced by using only the last observation in each season for every station and year.The results suggested differences in the nutrient concentrations between basins. The two northernmost basins (Bothnian Bay and Bothnian Sea) had lower phosphate concentrations and higher silicate concentrations compared to the rest of the Sea. Bothnian Bay and the Gulf of Finland had higher nitrate concentrations.The concentration structure within basins was studied using transects in both latitudinal and longitudinal direction. A gradient for phosphate and nitrate was found in the Gulf of Finland, with lower concentrations at the mouth. The Bothnian Sea showed lower concentrations in the middle of the basin compared to the coasts. The highest concentrations of phosphate were found close to the Finnish coast and for silicate the highest concentrations were located near the Swedish coast. It was not possible to study variation in the west-east direction within the Baltic proper, due to data shortage. For the transects in the north-south direction no differences were detected for nitrate and silicate. Phosphate gave one significant result during autumn for the transect in the eastern part of the Baltic proper.This study revealed several problems associated with the data available. Uneven sampling in space and time put severe constraints on the study. A better design of the monitoring program is suggested, where spatial properties are considered explicitly. Revision of the program in this direction is needed for reasonable calculation of total amounts and concentrations representative for a basin.     

Climate change in mountain regions: a marginal issue?

Summary Mountain regions comprise one-fifth of the world's land surface. They are home to a tenth and important in the lives of half of humankind. Yet mountains are often regarded as physically, politically and economically marginal; their importance has only recently been globally recognized. The potential impacts of climate change in mountain regions will vary considerably between different types of regions. These are briefly described, as an introduction to an evaluation of the potential impacts with regard to agriculture, forestry, water resources, tourism, energy, transport and health. It is concluded that climate change cannot be considered a marginal issue and that the ability of mountain and downstream people to adapt and respond in the long term will require attention to the maintenance and use of local knowledge and cooperative social networks, as well as considerable scientific research.Dr Martin Price obtained his Ph.D from the University of Colorado at Boulder, following a first degree at the University of Sheffield and an MSc from the University of Calgary, Canada. He is currently the Programme Leader for the Mountain Regions Programme at the Environmental Change Unit at the University of Oxford. This paper was presented at the Global Forum '94 Academic Conference and it represents a revision of an article by the author in Beniston (1994).     

Exencephaly in autosomal dominant brachydactyly syndrome

Exencephaly was diagnosed at 17 weeks in a 27-year-old primigravida with abnormalities of the hands and a family history suggestive of autosomal dominant brachydactyly and clinodactyly. In this family there was also a history of ‘anencephaly’. To our knowledge, this is the first report on the association of exencephaly and autosomal dominant brachydactyly. As the relationship between hand and cranial anomalies is well established, we suggest that this association in our case could be due to a defect in the same gene.     

Fetal cholecystomegaly: A prenatal marker of aneuploidy

The fetal gall bladder can now be easily identified during the second and third trimesters using high-resolution ultrasonography. In this report we present eight fetuses with an enlarged gall bladder detected on prenatal ultrasonography at a mean gestational age of 24.6 weeks (range 19–31 weeks). Additional ultrasonographic findings were present in four cases: fetal anomalies and intrauterine growth retardation in three and polyhydramnios in one. Of those cases associated with fetal anomalies, one woman underwent amniocentesis at 21 weeks revealing trisomy 18. The other two declined prenatal karyotyping; neonatal karyotyping revealed trisomy 13 in one and trisomy 18 in the other. Although an enlarged fetal gall bladder can be a normal variant in the second and third trimesters, the prenatal detection of cholecystomegaly should prompt a search for associated anomalies and other markers of aneuploidy. If found, prenatal karyotyping should be considered.     

An investigation of methods for enriching trophoblast from maternal blood

Trophoblast deportation is known to occur in normal human pregnancy, but it is not yet clear whether these cells routinely enter the maternal peripheral circulation and are available as a source of fetal DNA for non-invasive prenatal diagnosis of genetic disorders. To resolve this issue requires an efficient method of enriching trophoblast from maternal blood combined with a means to confirm its identity. Five different techniques were tested on ten retroplacental blood samples to determine the most sensitive and operator-efficient method. Lysis of red cells alone gave the best recovery of trophoblast but had to be discounted, together with Ficoll density gradient centrifugation, due to the very low purity and the excessive time required. Fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS) of pre-enriched trophoblast resulted in the lowest recovery rate (8 per cent) despite a 3250-fold enrichment and a very high purity. Immunomagnetic beads (Dynabeads) coated with anti-CD 16 antibody proved to be the best method for the subsequent immunocytochemical characterization of deported trophoblast. However, IO beads coated with anti-CD45 antibody may be more useful for isolating trophoblast for prenatal diagnosis due to the high purity, enrichment (32-fold), and recovery rate (78 per cent) obtained with this method.     

Fetal nuchal oedema and antenatal diagnosis of trisomy 10

Trisomy 10 was detected at amniocentesis undertaken following observation of fetal nuchal oedema. This is the first report of fetal trisomy 10 in association with nuchal oedema. The physical features of fetal trisomy 10 are described.