Bayesian Small Area Models for Assessing Wildlife Conservation Risk in Patchy Populations

Abstract:  Species conservation risk assessments require accurate, probabilistic, and biologically meaningful maps of population distribution. In patchy populations, the reasons for discontinuities are not often well understood. We tested a novel approach to habitat modeling in which methods of small area estimation were used within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. Amphibian occurrence was modeled with logistic regression that included third-order drainages as hierarchical effects to account for patchy populations. Models including the random drainage effects adequately represented species occurrences in patchy populations of 4 amphibian species in the Oregon Coast Range (U.S.A.). Amphibian surveys from other locations within the same drainage were used to calibrate local drainage-scale effects. Cross-validation showed that prediction errors for calibrated models were 77% to 86% lower than comparable regionally constructed models, depending on species. When calibration data were unavailable, small area and regional models performed similarly, although poorly. Small area estimation models complement wildlife ecology and habitat studies, and can help managers develop a regional picture of the conservation status for relatively rare species.     

Ambrosia artemisiifolia in an Anthropogenic Landscape of Gomel Polesye

Russian Journal of Ecology -     

The Outcome of Northern Fur Seal Harvesting: The Results of Calibration of Mathematical Models Based on Observation Data (the Example of Tyulenii Island Population)

Tendencies in the dynamics of harvested northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) population on the Tyulenii Island have been analyzed in detail. The results show that retardation of reproduction (decrease in the numbers of pups) and decline in the survival of young females (up to 3 years of age) by the late 1980s resulted in a reduction of the total number of females and a significant increase in the proportion of older females. This tendency changed during the later observation period (after 1988–1989) due to increase in the survival of young females: the female population has gradually recovered, with the proportion of young females increasing at the expense of old females (aged over 10 years). The age composition of males has also changed: the proportion of young animals has decreased, while that of large mature males (bulls) has increased. Moreover, the number of bulls continues to increase and has already exceeded the level that formerly provided for the well-being of the population. This, a paradoxical situation has arisen: the numbers of females and bulls are increasing, whereas pup production remains at a low level.

     

The Effect of Vaccinium vitis-idaea on Properties of Mountain-Meadow Soil under Alpine Lichen Heath

Russian Journal of Ecology - Abstract—The study of the effect of mycorrhiza symbiosis on the transformation of carbon and nitrogen compounds in soils is important in view of the necessity to...     

The Ratio between Chronographic and Geographic Variation in the Morphofunctional Features of Bank Vole (Clethrionomys glareolus Shreb.) in the South of Its Range

Russian Journal of Ecology - A simultaneous analysis of the chronographic variation of the mandible of bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus Shreb.) in three longitudinally distant populations that...     

溴鼠灵对美洲红隼（Falco sparverius）的毒性及后续抗凝灭鼠剂暴露增加危害性的证据

生态毒理学中的一个重要问题是污染物暴露对生理功能和健康的长期影响程度。已有系列研究探讨了美国红隼摄入第二代抗凝血灭鼠剂（AR）溴鼠灵（BROD）的环境浓度。以0.3、1.0或3.0 μg BROD/g（wt）喂养7天后,红隼表现出剂量依赖性出血、组织病理学损伤和凝血病变（凝血酶原延长和罗素毒液组）。在终止为期7天的0.5 μg BROD/g饮食的暴露后,延长的凝血时间在一周内恢复到基线值,但肝和肾中的BROD残留（最终半衰期估计值>50天）在28天的恢复期内持续存在。为了检测连续性AR暴露的危险性,红隼连续暴露于第一代AR—氯鸟嘌呤（CPN;每日饮食1.5 μg/g）或第二代AR—BROD（每日饮食0.5 μg/g）中7天,在恢复期后,用低剂量CPN（每日饮食0.75 μg/g）暴露7天。与对照组和CPN处理组的红隼相比,后续暴露明显延长了BROD处理组的凝血酶原时间。这些数据表明,第二代AR—BROD可能具有长期影响,增加了随后AR暴露的毒性。自由放养的捕食性和食腐性野生动物经常反复暴露于AR中,在进行危害和风险评估时需要考虑到这种长期的毒理学效应。     

低温等离子体与絮凝剂处理印染废水的协同效应

采用低温等离子体和絮凝剂协同处理印染废水.结果表明,染料废水脱色率和COD去除率随输入电压增大和放电时间延长而增加;电极间距、废水初始浓度、通入空气流量等因素对印染废水处理效果也有很大影响;气相中放电效果优于液相中放电,阳极电极在液面以上8mm左右时放电效果最好,在其他条件不变情况下随废水初始浓度和通入空气流量增大废水脱色和COD脱除率先增大再减小,有一最佳峰值.印染废水先经过等离子体处理后再加入絮凝剂处理效果优于先加絮凝剂后放电、仅有等离子体放电的过程.在本实验中初始浓度200mg/L(CODCr初始值572)印染废水在外加电压40kV、放电时间20min、电极间距8mm、通入空气流量16L/h条件下,与絮凝剂PAC相互协同作用可达到96%脱色率、63%COD去除率.     

Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

Empirical Trials of Plant Field Guides

We designed 3 image‐based field guides to tropical forest plant species in Ghana, Grenada, and Cameroon and tested them with 1095 local residents and 20 botanists in the United Kingdom. We compared users’ identification accuracy with different image formats, including drawings, specimen photos, living plant photos, and paintings. We compared users’ accuracy with the guides to their accuracy with only their prior knowledge of the flora. We asked respondents to score each format for usability, beauty, and how much they would pay for it. Prior knowledge of plant names was generally low (<22%). With a few exceptions, identification accuracy did not differ significantly among image formats. In Cameroon, users identifying sterile Cola species achieved 46–56% accuracy across formats; identification was most accurate with living plant photos. Botanists in the United Kingdom accurately identified 82–93% of the same Cameroonian species; identification was most accurate with specimens. In Grenada, users accurately identified 74–82% of plants; drawings yielded significantly less accurate identifications than paintings and photos of living plants. In Ghana, users accurately identified 85% of plants. Digital color photos of living plants ranked high for beauty, usability, and what users would pay. Black and white drawings ranked low. Our results show the potential and limitations of the use of field guides and nonspecialists to identify plants, for example, in conservation applications. We recommend authors of plant field guides use the cheapest or easiest illustration format because image type had limited bearing on accuracy; match the type of illustration to the most likely use of the guide for slight improvements in accuracy; avoid black and white formats unless the audience is experienced at interpreting illustrations or keeping costs low is imperative; discourage false‐positive identifications, which were common; and encourage users to ask an expert or use a herbarium for groups that are difficult to identify. Pruebas Empíricas de Guías de Campo de Plantas Hawthorne, Cable & Marshall