CRC-APRAC Vehicle Emissions Modeling Workshop

A conference was held on October 30-31,1990 to examine discrepancies between the output of vehicle emission factor models (MOBILE and EMFAC), field and laboratory measurements of vehicle emissions, and observed ratios of pollutants in urban atmospheres dominated by vehicle emissions. There was a general consensus that significant discrepancies exist and that these discrepancies must be resolved. A number of research recommendations were made as to how models and model inputs could be improved, and what additional laboratory and field work should be conducted.     

The role of spatial scale in sustainable development

The role of spatial scale in sustainable development is assessed by dividing the world into multiple spatial units at different levels on a socio-political spatial scale. The basic patterns of sustainable development do not appear to be evident at all spatial levels, owing to the absence of some capital stocks and the conversion processes linking them, but environmental economics theory can be generalized to explain phenomena at various levels. Capital conversion processes influencing the sustainability of development of spatial units are constrained by processes at different levels, e.g. those imposing environmental conditions on development or affecting availability of investment capital. The autonomy of individual spatial units is also compromised by capital transfers to and from other units at the same level, so it is proposed that the sustainability of development of a particular unit should be estimated using net, rather than gross capital trends. Because of uneven development the same degree of sustainability should not be expected at the same time for all spatial units at the same spatial level.     

Climate change, humidity, and mortality in the United States

This paper estimates the effects of humidity and temperature on mortality rates in the United States (c. 1973-2002) in order to provide an insight into the potential health impacts of climate change. I find that humidity, like temperature, is an important determinant of mortality. Coupled with Hadley CM3 climate-change predictions, I project that mortality rates are likely to change little on the aggregate for the United States. However, distributional impacts matter: mortality rates are likely to decline in cold and dry areas, but increase in hot and humid areas. Further, accounting for humidity has important implications for evaluating these distributional effects.     

Reduction in Residential Chromium Following Site Remediation

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study was to determine the influence of chromate production waste site remediation on residential Cr concentrations in house dust. Twenty-three homes in Jersey City, NJ, were identified as having had high (>500 u,g/gm, median 739 u,g/gm), medium (100-400 u,g/gm, median 245 u,g/gm), or low (<100 u,g/gm, median 48 u,g/ gm) Cr in house dust during a study conducted in 19921993 prior to site remediation. House dust samples were collected on four visits from each home between November 1996 and February 1998, extracted with HNO₃, and analyzed for Cr with an inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometer. Homes that had low Cr concentrations in 1992-1993 continued to have low Cr concentrations (median 1 u,g/g). In contrast, substantial declines in Cr concentrations were found in the house dust collected from homes located near the remediated waste sites: previously high-level homes had a median of 50 u,g/g and mid-level homes had a median of 34 u,g/g. Site remediation had a beneficial effect on household loadings of Cr, since no differences in post-remediation house dust Cr concentrations were found among the three groups.     

Application of a scenario-based modeling system to evaluate the air quality impacts of future growth

The structure and design of future urban development can have significant adverse effects on air pollutant emissions as well as other environmental factors. When considering the future impact of growth on mobile source emissions, we generally model the increase in vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) as a function of population growth. However, diverse and poorly planned urban development (i.e., urban sprawl) can force higher rates of motor vehicle use and in return increase levels of pollutant emissions than alternative land-use scenarios. The objective of this study is to develop and implement an air quality assessment tool that takes into account the influence of alternative growth and development scenarios on air quality.The use of scenario-based techniques in land use planning has been around since the late 1940s and been tested in many different applications to aid in decision-making. In this study, we introduce the development of an advanced interactive scenario-based land use and atmospheric chemistry modeling system coupled with a GIS (Geographical Information System) framework. The modeling system is designed to be modular and includes land use/land cover information, transportation, meteorological, emissions, and photochemical modeling components. The methods and modularity of the developed system allow its application to both broad areas and applications.To investigate the impact of possible land use change and urbanization, we evaluated a set of alternative future patterns of land use developed for a study area in Southwest California. Four land use and two population variants (increases of 500k and 1M) were considered. Overall, a Regional Low-Density Future was seen to have the highest pollutant emissions, largest increase in VKT, and the greatest impact on air quality. On the other hand, a Three-Centers Future appeared to be the most beneficial alternative future land-use scenario in terms of air quality. For all cases, the increase in population was the main factor leading to the change on predicted pollutant levels.     

Simulating Spatial Pattern and Dynamics of Military Training Impacts for Allocation of Land Repair Using Images

The land management of US Army installations requires information on land conditions and their history for planning future military training activities and allocation of land repair. There is thus a strong need for methodology development to estimate the land conditions and cumulative military training impacts for the purpose of repair and restoration. In this study, we simulated at Fort Riley, USA, spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of military training impacts on land conditions quantified as percent ground cover using an image-aided spatial conditional co-simulation algorithm. Moreover, we estimated the historical percent ground cover as a measure of the cumulative impacts, and then calculated the allocation of land repair and restoration based on both current and historical land conditions. In addition, we developed a loss function method for allocation of land repair and restoration. The results showed: (1) this co-simulation algorithm reproduced spatial and temporal variability of percent ground cover and provided estimates of uncertainties with the correlation coefficients and root mean square errors between the simulated and observed values varying from 0.63 to 0.88 and from 23% to 78%, respectively; (2) with and without the cumulative impacts, the obtained spatial patterns of the land repair categories were similar, but their land areas differed by 5% to 40% in some years; (3) the combination of the loss function with the co-simulation made it possible to estimate and computationally propagate the uncertainties of land conditions into the uncertainties of expected cost loss for misallocation of land repair and restoration; and (4) the loss function, physical threshold, and probability threshold methods led to similar spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of the land repair categories, however, the loss function increased the land area by 5% to 30% for intense and moderate repairs and decreased the area by 5% to 30% for no repairs and light repairs for most of the years. This approach provided the potential to improve and automate the existing land rehabilitation and maintenance (LRAM) system used for the land management of the U.S. Army installations, and it can be applied to the management of other civil lands and environments. In conclusion, this study overcame the important gaps that exist in the methodological development and application for simulating land conditions and cumulative impacts due to human activities, and also in the methods for the allocation of land for repair and restoration.     

Climate Change, Coral Reef Ecosystems, and Management Options for Marine Protected Areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) provide place-based management of marine ecosystems through various degrees and types of protective actions. Habitats such as coral reefs are especially susceptible to degradation resulting from climate change, as evidenced by mass bleaching events over the past two decades. Marine ecosystems are being altered by direct effects of climate change including ocean warming, ocean acidification, rising sea level, changing circulation patterns, increasing severity of storms, and changing freshwater influxes. As impacts of climate change strengthen they may exacerbate effects of existing stressors and require new or modified management approaches; MPA networks are generally accepted as an improvement over individual MPAs to address multiple threats to the marine environment. While MPA networks are considered a potentially effective management approach for conserving marine biodiversity, they should be established in conjunction with other management strategies, such as fisheries regulations and reductions of nutrients and other forms of land-based pollution. Information about interactions between climate change and more “traditional” stressors is limited. MPA managers are faced with high levels of uncertainty about likely outcomes of management actions because climate change impacts have strong interactions with existing stressors, such as land-based sources of pollution, overfishing and destructive fishing practices, invasive species, and diseases. Management options include ameliorating existing stressors, protecting potentially resilient areas, developing networks of MPAs, and integrating climate change into MPA planning, management, and evaluation.     

Comparative chronic toxicity of nanoparticulate and ionic zinc to the earthworm Eisenia veneta in a soil matrix

Manufactured nanoparticles (NPs) are increasingly being used in a range of consumer products and are already entering the environment. NP ZnO is one of the most widely used and potentially toxic NPs in aquatic exposures. It is likely that ZnO nanoparticles will also be bioavailable to soil organisms, studies on ZnO NP toxicity in a soil matrix are lacking. We exposed the earthworm Eisenia veneta to uncoated NP ZnO (<100 nm) dosed to soil and food at 250 and 750 mg Zn kg(-1) for 21 d. Concurrent exposures of equivalent ionic Zn were conducted with ZnCl(2) and for both forms effects on life history traits, immune activity and Zn body concentrations were compared. Despite slightly higher measured body concentrations, NP ZnO generally had less impact than ZnCl(2) on measured traits. At 750 mg Zn kg(-1), reproduction declined by 50% when exposed to NP ZnO but was almost completely inhibited by ZnCl(2). Similarly, immune activity was unaffected by NP ZnO but was suppressed by 20% when exposed to ZnCl(2). Scanning electron microscopy analysis of worm tissues following 24h aqueous exposure showed the presence of ZnO particles suggesting that NPs can be taken up in particulate form. This may explain the reduced effects at similar body concentrations seen in the soil study. Our findings suggest that risk assessments do not need to go beyond considering the metal component of NP ZnO in soils at least for the larger size uncoated particles considered here.