Reduced effect of Tasmanian devil facial tumor disease at the disease front

Pathogen-driven declines in animal populations are increasingly regarded as a major conservation issue. The Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) is threatened with extinction by devil facial tumor disease, a unique transmissible cancer. The disease is transmitted through direct transfer of tumor cells, which is possible because the genetic diversity of Tasmanian devils is low, particularly in the major histocompatibility complex genes of the immune system. The far northwest of Tasmania now holds the last remaining disease-free wild devil populations. The recent discovery of unique major histocompatibility complex genotypes in the northwestern region of Tasmania has raised the possibility that some animals may be resilient to the disease. We examined the differences in the epidemiology and population effects of devil facial tumor disease at 3 well-studied affected sites in eastern Tasmania and 1 in western Tasmania (West Pencil Pine). In contrast to the 3 eastern sites, there has been no rapid increase in disease prevalence or evidence of population decline at West Pencil Pine. Moreover, this is the only onsite at which the population age structure has remained unaltered 4 years after the first detection of disease. The most plausible explanations for the substantial differences in population effects and epidemiology of the disease between eastern and western sites are geographic differences in genotypes or phenotypes of devils and functional differences between tumor strains in the 2 regions. We suggest that conservation efforts focus on identifying whether either or both these explanations are correct and then, if resistance alleles exist, to attempt to spread the resistant alleles into affected populations. Such assisted selection has rarely been attempted for the management of wildlife diseases, but it may be widely applicable.     

Joint use of data and modeling in coastal wave transformation

In the framework of a research project entitled ??BRISA??BReaking waves and Induced SAnd transport??, a methodology was devised to characterize the waves joining together in-situ measurements and numerical wave propagation models. With this goal in mind, a number of in-situ measurements were made, for selected positions in front of Praia de Faro (South Portugal), during four days (25th to 28th March, 2009) by using different types of equipments (e.g., resistive wave gauges, pressure sensors, currentmeters and a new prototype pore pressure sensor using optical fibre). Wave records were obtained simultaneously offshore (at a water depth of 11.7?m below mean sea level, MSL) and at the surf and swash zones. The data processing and analysis were made by applying classical time domain techniques. Numerical simulations of the wave propagation between offshore and inshore for the measurement period were performed with two numerical models, a 1D model based on linear theory and a nonlinear Boussinesq-type model, COULWAVE, both forced by the measured offshore wave conditions of 27th March 2009. Comparisons between numerical results and field data for the pressure sensors placed in the surf and swash zones were made and discussed. This approach enables to evaluate the performance of those models to simulate those specific conditions, but also to validate the models by gaining confidence on their use in other conditions.     

Ecological determinism increases with organism size

After much debate, there is an emerging consensus that the composition of many ecological communities is determined both by species traits, as proposed by niche theory, as well as by chance events. A critical question for ecology is, therefore, which attributes of species predict the dominance of deterministic or stochastic processes. We outline two hypotheses by which organism size could determine which processes structure ecological communities, and we test these hypotheses by comparing the community structure in bromeliad phytotelmata of three groups of organisms (bacteria, zooplankton, and macroinvertebrates) that encompass a 10 000-fold gradient in body size, but live in the same habitat. Bacteria had no habitat associations, as would be expected from trait-neutral stochastic processes, but still showed exclusion among species pairs, as would be expected from niche-based processes. Macroinvertebrates had strong habitat and species associations, indicating niche-based processes. Zooplankton, with body size between bacteria and macroinvertebrates, showed intermediate habitat associations. We concluded that a key niche process, habitat filtering, strengthened with organism size, possibly because larger organisms are both less plastic in their fundamental niches and more able to be selective in dispersal. These results suggest that the relative importance of deterministic and stochastic processes may be predictable from organism size.     

The interaction between reproductive cost and individual quality is mediated by oceanic conditions in a long-lived bird

Environmental variability, costs of reproduction, and heterogeneity in individual quality are three important sources of the temporal and interindividual variations in vital rates of wild populations. Based on an 18-year monitoring of an endangered, recently described, long-lived seabird, Monteiro's Storm-Petrel (Oceanodroma monteiroi), we designed multistate survival models to separate the effects of the reproductive cost (breeders vs. nonbreeders) and individual quality (successful vs. unsuccessful breeders) in relation to temporally variable demographic and oceanographic properties. The analysis revealed a gradient of individual quality from nonbreeders, to unsuccessful breeders, to successful breeders. The survival rates of unsuccessful breeders (0.90 +/- 0.023, mean +/- SE) tended to decrease in years of high average breeding success and were more sensitive to oceanographic variation than those of both (high-quality) successful breeders (0.97 +/- 0.015) and (low-quality) nonbreeders (0.83 +/- 0.028). Overall, our results indicate that reproductive costs act on individuals of intermediate quality and are mediated by environmental harshness.     

DNA damage in oral epithelial cells of individuals chronically exposed to indoor radon (<Superscript>222</Superscript>Rn) in a hydrothermal area

Hydrothermal areas are potentially hazardous to humans as volcanic gases such as radon (²²²Rn) are continuously released from soil diffuse degassing. Exposure to radon is estimated to be the second leading cause of lung cancer, but little is known about radon health-associated risks in hydrothermal regions. This cross-sectional study was designed to evaluate the DNA damage in the buccal epithelial cells of individuals chronically exposed to indoor radon in a volcanic area (Furnas volcano, Azores, Portugal) with a hydrothermal system. Buccal epithelial cells were collected from 33 individuals inhabiting the hydrothermal area (Ribeira Quente village) and from 49 individuals inhabiting a non-hydrothermal area (Ponta Delgada city). Indoor radon was measured with Ramon 2.2 detectors. Chromosome damage was measured by micronucleus cytome assay, and RAPD-PCR was used as a complementary tool to evaluate DNA damage, using three 10-mer primers (D11, F1 and F12). Indoor radon concentration correlated positively with the frequency of micronucleated cells (r _s = 0.325, p = 0.003). Exposure to radon is a risk factor for the occurrence micronucleated cells in the inhabitants of the hydrothermal area (RR = 1.71; 95% CI, 1.2–2.4; p = 0.003). One RAPD-PCR primer (F12) produced differences in the banding pattern, a fact that can indicate its potential for detecting radon-induced specific genomic alterations. The observed association between chronic exposure to indoor radon and the occurrence of chromosome damage in human oral epithelial cells evidences the usefulness of biological surveillance to assess mutations involved in pre-carcinogenesis in hydrothermal areas, reinforcing the need for further studies with human populations living in these areas.     

Multiple source spatial cluster detection via multi-criteria analysis

Multiple data sources are essential to provide reliable information regarding the emergence of potential health threats, compared to single source methods. Spatial Scan Statistics have been adapted to analyze multivariate data sources, but only ad hoc procedures have been devised to address the problem of selecting the most likely cluster and computing its significance. In this work, information from multiple data sources of disease surveillance is incorporated to achieve more coherent spatial cluster detection using tools from multi-criteria analysis. The best cluster solutions are found by maximizing two objective functions simultaneously, based on the concept of dominance. To evaluate the statistical significance of solutions, a statistical approach based on the concept of attainment function is used. The multi-criteria approach has several advantages: the representation of the evaluation function for each data source is clear, and does not suffer from an artificial, and possibly confusing mixture with the other data source evaluations; it is possible to attribute, in a rigorous way, the statistical significance of each candidate cluster; and it is possible to analyze and pick-up the best cluster solutions, as given naturally by the non-dominated set. The methodology is illustrated with real datasets.     

OECD 236的鱼类胚胎实验(Fish Embryo Test, FET)是否足够敏感，能有效进行排水风险评价吗？

近年来,由于“动物友好”协议的广泛应用,鱼类胚胎实验(Fish Embryo Test, FET)成为了生态毒理学研究的主要方法。OECD 236 FET方法在REACH法规所辖范围内广泛应用,主要针对简单混合物暴露情况(simple mixture exposures),但其还在世界范围内被盲目地用于排放废水综合测试(Whole Effluent Test, WET),这是一种复杂混合物暴露情况。然而,评价FET方法用于WET的有效性的可靠数据几乎没有。本文将OECD 236 FET方法与其他国际通用的标准的和略作改进的生态毒理学研究方案进行了比较,得出了可用于WET的测试方法的总体评价结果。我们使用了未经处理的医院排水,通常认为该排水具有高毒性,且会进入市政污水处理系统。我们选择的毒性测试方法包括OECD 203 (juvenile), USEPA 2000.0 (larva) and OECD 236 (embryo)。值得一提的是,我们还额外测试了3个亚致死指标(不移动性、不孵化率、心包囊肿),这些指标可以提高OECD 236方法的敏感性。我们在所选的8种方法中考察了急性毒性数据,方法的敏感性均有提高且胚胎实验≤仔鱼实验<幼鱼实验(Embryo≤Juvenile 详情请见 https://doi.org/10.1002/etc.4215
     

Assessing plausible rates of population growth in humpback whales from life-history data

The rate of growth of any population is a quantity of interest in conservation and management and is constrained by biological factors. In this study, recent data on life-history parameters influencing rates of population growth in humpback whales, including survival, age at first parturition and calving rate are reviewed. Monte Carlo simulations are used to compute a distribution of rates of increase (ROIs) taking into account uncertainty in biological parameter estimates. Two approaches for computing juvenile survival are proposed, which taken into account along with other life-history data, resulted in the following estimates of the rate of population growth: Approach A: mean of 7.3%/year (95% CI = 3.5–10.5%/year) and Approach B: mean of 8.6%/year (95% CI = 5.0–11.4%/year). It is proposed that the upper 99% quantile of the resulting distribution of the ROI for Approach B (11.8%/year) be established as the maximum plausible ROI for humpback whales and be used in population assessment of the species. Possible sources of positive and negative biases in the present estimates are presented and include measurement error in estimation of life-history parameters, changes in the environment within the period these quantities are measured, density dependence or other natural factors. However, it is difficult to evaluate potential biases without additional data. The methods presented in this study can be applied to other species for which life-history parameters are available and are useful in assessing plausibility in the estimation of population growth rates from time series of abundance estimates.     

Estimating the influence of overhead transmission power lines and landscape context on the density of little bustard Tetrax tetrax breeding populations

Collision with conductors and earth cables is a known impact generated by transmission power lines, however there is virtually no information on how these infrastructures might affect bird distribution in a landscape context. With this work we specifically hypothesise that transmission power lines may affect the occurrence of a threatened bird, the little bustard (Tetrax tetrax). To test this hypothesis we used a Stochastic Dynamic Methodology (StDM), analysing the effects of power lines in a landscape perspective and simulating population trends as a response to power line installation and habitat changes induced by agricultural shifts in southern Portugal. The data used in the dynamic model construction included relevant gradients of environmental conditions and was sampled during the breeding seasons of 2003-2006. Transmission power lines were significantly avoided by the little bustard and the developed StDM model showed that the distance to these utility structures is the most important factor determining breeding densities in sites with suitable habitat for the species, which possibly leads to displacement of populations and habitat fragmentation. The model simulations also provided the base to analyse the cumulative effects caused by the habitat degradation that can ultimately lead to the extinction of local populations. Within priority conservation sites, the dismantling of existing transmission lines should be considered whenever possible, in order to ensure adequate breeding habitat. The model is considered useful as an auxiliary tool to be used in environmental impact assessments, management and conservation studies.