Precursor-based hierarchical Bayesian approach for rare event frequency estimation: A case of oil spill accidents

Due to a scarcity of data, the estimate of the frequency of a rare event is a consistently challenging problem in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). However, the use of precursor data has been shown to help in obtaining more accurate estimates. Moreover, the use of hyper-priors to represent prior parameters in the hierarchical Bayesian approach (HBA) generates more consistent results in comparison to the conventional Bayesian method. This study proposes a framework that uses a precursor-based HBA for rare event frequency estimation. The proposed method is demonstrated using the recent BP Deepwater Horizon accident in the Gulf of Mexico. The conventional Bayesian method is also applied to the same case study. The results show that the proposed approach is more effective with regards to the following perspectives: (a) using the HBA in the proposed framework provides an opportunity to take full advantage of the sparse data available and add information from indirect but relevant data; (b) the HBA is more sensitive to changes in precursor data than the conventional Bayesian method; and (c) using hyper-priors to represent prior parameters, the HBA is able to model the variability that can exist among different sources of data.     

A Study on the Combined Effect of Noise and Vibration on Operators’ Performance of a Readability Task in a Mobile Driving Environment

This paper presents a study in which the main objective was to investigate the combined effect of noise and vibration on the performance of a readability task in a mobile driving environment. Subjects performed a readability task on a laptop computer in a sitting posture with their backs supported with a backrest under varying levels of noise and vibration. The data in terms of the mean number of characters read per minute were collected and statistically analyzed. Results showed that the individual effect of noise, vibration, and the operators’ gender as well as the interaction between gender and noise, and gender and vibration were statistically significant. However, the combined effect of noise and vibration was not found to be statistically significant. Results also indicated that gender was statistically significant at all levels of noise as well as vibration, and noise and vibration were statistically significant at both levels of gender.     

Comparison of PCDD/PCDF levels in soil, grass, cow''s milk, human blood and spruce needles in an area of PCDD/PCDF contamination through emissions from a metal reclamation plant

When in the vicinity of a metal reclamation plant in Tyrol, Austria, increased PCDD/PCDF levels were found in soil and spruce needles, the extent of grass contamination as well as the PCDD/PCDF content in milk of cows fed with hay from this area was determined. The milk samples showed a significant increase in PCDD/PCDF levels compared to control samples. In a blood sample of a farmer a significant increase in PCDD/PCDF levels was found. Correlations in PCDD/PCDF levels between soil, spruce needles, grass, cow's milk and human blood will be presented.