Development of visibility forecasting modeling framework for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia using Canada’s Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System

Visibility degradation, one of the most noticeable indicators of poor air quality, can occur despite relatively low levels of particulate matter when the risk to human health is low. The availability of timely and reliable visibility forecasts can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the anticipated air quality conditions to better inform local jurisdictions and the public. This paper describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia. A baseline model (GM-IMPROVE) was constructed using the revised IMPROVE algorithm based on unprocessed forecasts from the RAQDPS. Three additional prototypes (UMOS-HYB, GM-MLR, GM-RF) were also developed and assessed for forecast performance of up to 48 hr lead time during various air quality and meteorological conditions. Forecast performance was assessed by examining their ability to provide both numerical and categorical forecasts in the form of 1-hr total extinction and Visual Air Quality Ratings (VAQR), respectively. While GM-IMPROVE generally overestimated extinction more than twofold, it had skill in forecasting the relative species contribution to visibility impairment, including ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate. Both statistical prototypes, GM-MLR and GM-RF, performed well in forecasting 1-hr extinction during daylight hours, with correlation coefficients (R) ranging from 0.59 to 0.77. UMOS-HYB, a prototype based on postprocessed air quality forecasts without additional statistical modeling, provided reasonable forecasts during most daylight hours. In terms of categorical forecasts, the best prototype was approximately 75 to 87% correct, when forecasting for a condensed three-category VAQR. A case study, focusing on a poor visual air quality yet low Air Quality Health Index episode, illustrated that the statistical prototypes were able to provide timely and skillful visibility forecasts with lead time up to 48 hr.

Implications: This study describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System. The main applications include tourism and recreation planning, input into air quality management programs, and educational outreach. Visibility forecasts, when supplemented with the existing air quality and health based forecasts, can assist jurisdictions to anticipate the visual air quality impacts as perceived by the public, which can potentially assist in formulating the appropriate air quality bulletins and recommendations.     

Survey of polyfluorinated chemicals (PFCs) in the atmosphere over the northeast Atlantic Ocean

High volume air sampling in Bermuda, Sable Island (Nova Scotia) and along a cruise track from the Gulf of Mexico to northeast coast of the USA, was carried out to assess air concentrations, particle-gas partitioning and transport of polyfluorinated chemicals (PFCs) in this region. Samples were collected in the summer of 2007. Targeted compounds included the neutral PFCs: fluorotelomer alcohols (FTOHs), perfluoroalkyl sulfonamides (FOSAs) and perfluoroalkyl sulfonamido ethanols (FOSEs).Among the FTOHs, 8:2 FTOH was dominant in all samples. Sum of the concentration of FTOHs (gas+particle phase) were higher in Bermuda (mean, 34 pg m^?3) compared to Sable Island (mean, 16 pg m^?3). In cruise samples, sum of FTOHs were highly variable (mean, 81 pg m^?3) reflecting contributions from land-based sources in the northeast USA with concentrations reaching as high as 156 pg m^?3.Among the FOSAs and FOSEs, MeFOSE was dominant in all samples. In Bermuda, levels of MeFOSE were exceptionally high (mean, 62 pg m^?3), exceeding the FTOHs. Sable Island samples also exhibited the dominance of MeFOSE but at a lower concentration (mean, 15 pg m^?3). MeFOSE air concentrations (pg m^?3) in cruise samples ranged from 1.6 to 73 and were not linked to land-based sources. In fact high concentrations of MeFOSE observed in Bermuda were associated with air masses that originated over the Atlantic Ocean.The partitioning to particles for 8:2 FTOH, 10:2 FTOH, MeFOSE and EtFOSE ranged from as high as 15 to 42% for cruise samples to 0.9 to 14% in Bermuda. This study provides key information for validating and developing partitioning and transport models for the PFCs.     

Mercury in San Francisco Bay forage fish

In the San Francisco Estuary, management actions including tidal marsh restoration could change fish mercury (Hg) concentrations. From 2005 to 2007, small forage fish were collected and analyzed to identify spatial and interannual variation in biotic methylmercury (MeHg) exposure. The average whole body total Hg concentration was 0.052 μg g⁻¹ (wet-weight) for 457 composite samples representing 13 fish species. MeHg constituted 94% of total Hg. At a given length, Hg concentrations were higher in nearshore mudflat and wetland species (Clevelandia ios, Menidia audens, and Ilypnus gilberti), compared to species that move offshore (e.g., Atherinops affinis and Lepidogobius lepidus). Gut content analysis indicated similar diets between Atherinops affinis and Menidia audens, when sampled at the same locations. Hg concentrations were higher in sites closest to the Guadalupe River, which drains a watershed impacted by historic Hg mining. Results demonstrate that despite differences among years and fish species, nearshore forage fish exhibit consistent Hg spatial gradients.     

In situ experimental study of carbon monoxide generation by gasoline-powered electric generator in an enclosed space

On the basis of currently available data, approximately 97% of generator-related carbon monoxide (CO) fatalities are caused by operating currently marketed, carbureted spark-ignited gasoline-powered generators (not equipped with emission controls) in enclosed spaces. To better understand and to reduce the occurrence of these fatalities, research is needed to quantify CO generation rates, develop and test CO emission control devices, and evaluate CO transport and exposure when operating a generator in an enclosed space. As a first step in these efforts, this paper presents measured CO generation rates from a generator without any emission control devices operating in an enclosed space under real weather conditions. This study expands on previously published information from the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission. Thirteen separate tests were conducted under different weather conditions at half and full generator load settings. It was found that the CO level in the shed reached a maximum value of 29,300 +/- 580 mg/m3, whereas the oxygen (O2) was depleted to a minimum level of 16.2 +/- 0.02% by volume. For the test conditions of real weather and generator operation, the CO generation and the O2 consumption could be expressed as time-averaged generation/consumption rates. It was also found that the CO generation and O2 consumption rates can be correlated to the O2 levels in the space and the actual load output from the generator. These correlations are shown to agree well with the measurements.     

The influence of sampling protocol on nonmethane hydrocarbon mixing ratios

The effect of sampling protocol on ambient air hydrocarbon mixing ratios was examined on eight sampling days in Los Angeles during 2007 and 2008. Four protocols, which were based on previously published multi-city urban hydrocarbon studies in the United States, were compared and differences were quantified. Whole air canister samples were collected and analyzed for nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs). Differing sampling protocols resulted in large differences in mixing ratios, up to an order of magnitude, for certain NMHCs on the same sampling day. However, the magnitude of the variability between NMHC levels obtained by the four protocols was not consistent throughout the eight sampling days. It was found that sampling time, followed by sampling location, had the greatest influence on the magnitude of the mixing ratio. Ratios between hydrocarbons, often used in urban studies to gain information on emission sources, also varied depending on the protocol used. Comparison of absolute NMHC mixing ratios collected in urban environments using differing sampling protocols should be made with care.     

Spatial variability of carbonaceous aerosols and associated source tracers in two cites in the Midwestern United States

Semi-continuous and 24-h averaged measurements of fine carbonaceous aerosols were made concurrently at three sites within each of two U.S. Midwestern Cities; Detroit, Michigan and Cleveland, Ohio; during two, one-month intensive campaigns conducted in July of 2007 and January & February of 2008. A comparison of 24-h measurements revealed substantial intra-urban variability in carbonaceous aerosols consistent with the influence of local sources, and excesses in both PM_2.5 organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) were identified at individual sites within each city. High time-resolved black carbon (BC) measurements indicated that elemental carbon concentrations were higher at sites adjacent to freeways and busy surface streets, and temporal patterns suggested that excess EC at sites adjacent to freeways was dominated by mobile source emissions while excesses in EC away from traffic corridors was dominated by point/area source emissions. The site-to-site variability in OC concentrations was approximately 7% within the neighborhood scale (0.5–4 km) and between 4 and 27% at the urban scale (4–100 km). In contrast, measurements of organic source tracers, in conjunction with a Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) source-apportionment model, indicated that the spatial variation in the contribution of both mobile and stationary sources to PM_2.5 OC often exceeded the variation in OC mass concentration by a factor of 3 or more. Markers for mobile sources, biomass smoke, natural gas, and coal combustion differed by as much as 60% within the neighborhood scale and by greater than 200% within the urban scale. The observations made during this study suggest that the urban excess of carbonaceous aerosols is much more complex than has been previously reported and that a more rigorous, source-oriented approach should be taken in order to assess the risk associated with exposure to carbonaceous aerosols within the industrialized environments of the Midwestern United States.     

Integrating Environmental and Socio-Economic Indicators of a Linked Catchment–Coastal System Using Variable Environmental Intensity

Can we develop land use policy that balances the conflicting views of stakeholders in a catchment while moving toward long term sustainability? Adaptive management provides a strategy for this whereby measures of catchment performance are compared against performance goals in order to progressively improve policy. However, the feedback loop of adaptive management is often slow and irreversible impacts may result before policy has been adapted. In contrast, integrated modelling of future land use policy provides rapid feedback and potentially improves the chance of avoiding unwanted collapse events. Replacing measures of catchment performance with modelled catchment performance has usually required the dynamic linking of many models, both biophysical and socio-economic—and this requires much effort in software development. As an alternative, we propose the use of variable environmental intensity (defined as the ratio of environmental impact over economic output) in a loose coupling of models to provide a sufficient level of integration while avoiding significant effort required for software development. This model construct was applied to the Motueka Catchment of New Zealand where several biophysical (riverine water quantity, sediment, E. coli faecal bacteria, trout numbers, nitrogen transport, marine productivity) models, a socio-economic (gross output, gross margin, job numbers) model, and an agent-based model were linked. An extreme set of land use scenarios (historic, present, and intensive) were applied to this modelling framework. Results suggest that the catchment is presently in a near optimal land use configuration that is unlikely to benefit from further intensification. This would quickly put stress on water quantity (at low flow) and water quality (E. coli). To date, this model evaluation is based on a theoretical test that explores the logical implications of intensification at an unlikely extreme in order to assess the implications of likely growth trajectories from present use. While this has largely been a desktop exercise, it would also be possible to use this framework to model and explore the biophysical and economic impacts of individual or collective catchment visions. We are currently investigating the use of the model in this type of application.     

Mass loads of dissolved and particulate mercury and other trace elements in the Mt. Amiata mining district,Southern Tuscany (Italy)

Total dissolved and particulate mercury (Hg), arsenic (As), and antimony (Sb) mass loads were estimated in different seasons (March and September 2011 and March 2012) in the Paglia River basin (PRB) (central Italy). The Paglia River drains the Mt. Amiata Hg district, one of the largest Hg-rich regions worldwide. Quantification of Hg, As, and Sb mass loads in this watershed allowed (1) identification of the contamination sources, (2) evaluation of the effects of Hg on the environment, and (3) determination of processes affecting Hg transport. The dominant source of Hg in the Paglia River is runoff from Hg mines in the Mt. Amiata region. The maximum Hg mass load was found to be related to runoff from the inactive Abbadia San Salvatore Mine (ASSM), and up to 30 g day^?1 of Hg, dominantly in the particulate form, was transported both in high and low flow conditions in 2011. In addition, enrichment factors (EFs) calculated for suspended particulate matter (SPM) were similar in different seasons indicating that water discharge controls the quantities of Hg transported in the PRB, and considerable Hg was transported in all seasons studied. Overall, as much as 11 kg of Hg are discharged annually in the PRB and this Hg is transported downstream to the Tiber River, and eventually to the Mediterranean Sea. Similar to Hg, maximum mass loads for As and Sb were found in March 2011, when as much as 190 g day^?1 each of As and Sb were measured from sites downstream from the ASSM. Therefore, the Paglia River represents a significant source of Hg, Sb, and As to the Mediterranean Sea.     

Intermittent agitation of liquid manure: effects on methane,microbial activity,and temperature in a farm-scale study

Liquid manure storages are a significant source of methane (CH₄) emissions. Farmers commonly agitate (stir) liquid manure prior to field application to homogenize nutrients and solids. During agitation, manure undergoes mechanical stress and is exposed to the air, disrupting anaerobic conditions. This on-farm study aimed to better understand the effects of agitation on CH₄ emissions, and explore the potential for intentional agitation (three times) to disrupt the exponential increase of CH₄ emissions in spring and summer. Results showed that agitation substantially increased manure temperature in the study year compared to the previous year, particularly at upper- and mid-depths of the stored manure. The temporal pattern of CH₄ emissions was altered by reduced emissions over the subsequent week, followed by an increase during the second week. Microbial analysis indicated that the activity of archaea and methanogens increased after each agitation event, but there was little change in the populations of methanogens, archaea, and bacteria. Overall, CH₄ emissions were higher than any of the previous three years, likely due to warmer manure temperatures that were higher than the previous years (despite similar air temperatures). Therefore, intermittent manure agitation with the frequency, duration, and intensity used in this study is not recommended as a CH₄ emission mitigation practice.

Implications: The potential to mitigate methane emissions from liquid manure storages by strategically timed agitation was evaluated in a detailed farm-scale study. Agitation was conducted with readily-available farm equipment, and targeted at the early summer to disrupt methanogenic communities when CH₄ emissions increase exponentially. Methane emissions were reduced for about one week after agitation. However, agitation led to increased manure temperature, and was associated with increased activity of methanogens. Overall, agitation was associated with similar or higher methane emissions. Therefore, agitation is not recommended as a mitigation strategy.