A robust weighted EM algorithm for use-availability data

Wildlife sampling for habitat selection often combines a random background sample with a random sample of used sites, because the background sample could contain too few used sites to be informative for rare species. This approach is referred to as use-availability sampling. Two variants are considered where there is: (1) a random background sample including used and unused sites augmented with a sample of used sites, and (2) a sample of used sites augmented with a contaminated background sample, i.e. use is not recorded. A weighted estimator first proposed by Manski and Lerman (Econometrica 45(8):1977?C1988, 1977) forms the basis for our suggested approach. The weighted estimator has been shown to perform better than the usual unweighted approach with uncontaminated data and mis-specified logit models (Xie and Manski in Sociol Methods Res 17(3):283?C302, 1989). A weighted EM algorithm is developed for use with contaminated background data. We show that the weighted estimator continues to perform well with contaminated data and maintains its robustness to model mis-specification. The weighted estimator has not been previously used for use-availability sampling due to reliance on the assumption that only the intercept is biased, which is valid for a correct logit model. We show that adjusting the intercept may not eliminate the bias with an incorrect logit model. In this case, the weighted estimator is a relatively simple and effective alternative.     

Modelling the distribution of domestic ducks in Monsoon Asia

Domestic ducks are considered to be an important reservoir of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), as shown by a number of geospatial studies in which they have been identified as a significant risk factor associated with disease presence. Despite their importance in HPAI epidemiology, their large-scale distribution in monsoon Asia is poorly understood. In this study, we created a spatial database of domestic duck census data in Asia and used it to train statistical distribution models for domestic duck distributions at a spatial resolution of 1 km. The method was based on a modelling framework used by the Food and Agriculture Organisation to produce the Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW) database, and relies on stratified regression models between domestic duck densities and a set of agro-ecological explanatory variables. We evaluated different ways of stratifying the analysis and of combining the prediction to optimize the goodness of fit of the predictions. We found that domestic duck density could be predicted with reasonable accuracy (mean RMSE and correlation coefficient between log-transformed observed and predicted densities being 0.58 and 0.80, respectively), using a stratification based on livestock production systems. We tested the use of artificially degraded data on duck distributions in Thailand and Vietnam as training data, and compared the modelled outputs with the original high-resolution data. This showed, for these two countries at least, that these approaches could be used to accurately disaggregate provincial level (administrative level 1) statistical data to provide high resolution model distributions.     

Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 1: The joint effort of the MICORE and ConHaz Projects

The current paper discusses the topic of marine storm impact along European coastlines, presenting results from two FP7 Projects currently focusing on this topic, one working on the physical aspects of the problem (MICORE) and the other one on the socio-economic implications (ConHaz).The MICORE Project aims to provide on-line predictions of storm-related physical hazards (hydrodynamic as well as morphodynamic). The ConHaz Project addresses the socio-economic implications should these (or other) hazards actually materialize. Together these projects aim to deliver crucial information for emergency response efforts, while realizing the practical limitations for information processing and dissemination during crisis situations.The MICORE Project has developed and demonstrated on-line tools for reliable predictions of the morphological impact of marine storm events in support of civil protection mitigation strategies. The project specifically targeted the development of early warning and information systems to support short term emergency response in case of an extreme storm event. The current paper discusses in detail the outcome of an activity of databasing historical storm data. No clear changes in storminess were observed, except for some storm proxies (e.g. surges) and only at some locations (e.g. northern Adriatic, southern Baltic, etc.).The ConHaz Project undertook a desktop study of the methods normally used for evaluating the impact of marine storms and the associated coastal hazards considering direct costs, costs due to disruption of production processes, indirect costs, intangible costs, and costs of adaptation and mitigation measures. Several methods for cost estimation were reviewed. From the review it emerged that normally end-users only evaluate direct costs after the storms, while the cost of adaptation and mitigation measures is only done strategically in the context of Integrated Coastal Zone Management plans. As there is no standardized method for cost evaluations in this field, it is suggested that clear guidelines should be produced on the basis of simplicity for use by end-users. The integration between historical databases of the physical parameters of storms and detailed cost evaluation information would support the development of a knowledge background in end-users and justify the development of adaptation strategies.     

Dodo remains from an in situ context from Mare aux Songes, Mauritius

Since 2005, excavations at Mare aux Songes, Mauritius, have revealed the presence of a very rich, ∼4,200-year-old fossil bone bed including dodo (Raphus cucullatus) bones and bone fragments. The recently excavated dodo assemblage comprises at least 17 individuals and is characterised by the presence of small and fragile skeletal elements, a dominance of leg elements and an absence of juveniles. The hydrology of the area suggests that dodos, like many other species, were probably lured to Mare aux Songes by the presence of freshwater during times of drought. The most likely scenario for the origin of the fossil deposit is that animals became trapped in the sediment in repeated miring events, which would favour the conservation of hindlimbs. Such a scenario is fully in accordance with the taphonomic characteristics of the bone assemblage.     

Greenhouse gas mitigation with scarce land: The potential contribution of increased nitrogen input

Agricultural lands have been identified to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions primarily by production of energy crops and substituting fossil energy resources and through carbon sequestration in soils. Increased fertilizer input resulting in increased yields may reduce the area needed for crop production. The surplus area could be used for energy production without affecting the land use necessary for food and feed production. We built a model to investigate the effect of changing nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates on cropping area required for a given amount of crops. We found that an increase in nitrogen fertilizer supply is only justified if GHG mitigation with additional land is higher than 9–15 t carbon dioxide equivalents per hectare (CO₂-eq._./ha). The mitigation potential of bioenergy production from energy crops is most often not in this range. Hence, from a GHG abatement point of view land should rather be used to produce crops at moderate fertilizer rate than to produce energy crops. This may change if farmers are forced to reduce their N input due to taxes or governmental regulations as it is the case in Denmark. However, with a fertilizer rate 10 % below the economical optimum a reduction of N input is still more effective than the production of bioenergy unless mitigation effect of the bioenergy production exceeds 7 t carbon dioxide (CO₂)-eq._./ha. An intensification of land use in terms of N supply to provide more land for bioenergy production can only in exceptional cases be justified to mitigate GHG emissions with bioenergy under current frame conditions in Germany and Denmark.     

SAFE—A hierarchical framework for assessing the sustainability of agricultural systems

Sustainable development and the definition of indicators to assess progress towards sustainability have become a high priority in scientific research and on policy agendas. In this paper, we propose a consistent and comprehensive framework of principles, criteria and indicators (PC&I) for sustainability assessment of agricultural systems, referred to as the Sustainability Assessment of Farming and the Environment (SAFE) framework. In addition we formulate consistent and objective approaches for indicator identification and selection. The framework is designed for three spatial levels: the parcel level, the farm level and a higher spatial level that can be the landscape, the region or the state. The SAFE framework is hierarchical as it is composed of principles, criteria, indicators and reference values in a structured way. Principles are related to the multiple functions of the agro-ecosystem, which go clearly beyond the production function alone. The multifunctional character of the agro-ecosystem encompasses the three pillars of sustainability: the environmental, economic and social pillars. Indicators and reference values are the end-products of the framework. They are the operational tools that are used for evaluating the sustainability of the agro-ecosystems. The proposed analytical framework is not intended to find a common solution for sustainability in agriculture as a whole, but to serve as an assessment tool for the identification, the development and the evaluation of agricultural production systems, techniques and policies.     

Eco-efficiency trends of the Flemish industry: decoupling of environmental impact from economic growth

A methodology for eco-efficiency reporting is proposed with eco-efficiency indicators for climate change, acidification, photo-oxidant formation, human toxicity, freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity, eutrophication, energy consumption and waste generation. The method is applied to emission, consumption and production data of the Flemish industry provided by the Flemish environmental agency for the period 1995–2006. For climate change, acidification, photo-oxidant formation, human toxicity, freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity and eutrophication, the eco-efficiency improved by 39, 55, 41, 58, 72 and 53%, respectively. For each of these impact categories, the total environmental impact decreased despite an increase in production, indicating absolute decoupling of environmental impact from economic growth. The eco-efficiency indicator for energy consumption and waste generation improved by 16 and 14%, respectively. However, due to the increase in production, the total energy consumption and the amount of waste generated increased: for these two environmental themes decoupling from economic growth was relative. Despite the improved eco-efficiency, industry remains one of the main polluters in Flanders. The application of the method to emission, energy consumption and production data of the Flemish industry resulted in a comprehensive and correct source of information for the general public and the government. Moreover, it can serve as a basis for economically and environmentally sound decisions and for the evaluation of the impact of former decisions.