Modelling the distribution of domestic ducks in Monsoon Asia

Domestic ducks are considered to be an important reservoir of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), as shown by a number of geospatial studies in which they have been identified as a significant risk factor associated with disease presence. Despite their importance in HPAI epidemiology, their large-scale distribution in monsoon Asia is poorly understood. In this study, we created a spatial database of domestic duck census data in Asia and used it to train statistical distribution models for domestic duck distributions at a spatial resolution of 1 km. The method was based on a modelling framework used by the Food and Agriculture Organisation to produce the Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW) database, and relies on stratified regression models between domestic duck densities and a set of agro-ecological explanatory variables. We evaluated different ways of stratifying the analysis and of combining the prediction to optimize the goodness of fit of the predictions. We found that domestic duck density could be predicted with reasonable accuracy (mean RMSE and correlation coefficient between log-transformed observed and predicted densities being 0.58 and 0.80, respectively), using a stratification based on livestock production systems. We tested the use of artificially degraded data on duck distributions in Thailand and Vietnam as training data, and compared the modelled outputs with the original high-resolution data. This showed, for these two countries at least, that these approaches could be used to accurately disaggregate provincial level (administrative level 1) statistical data to provide high resolution model distributions.     

A cross-national perspective on youth environmental attitudes

The environmental attitudes of young people are a growing topic of interest for social scientists. Most research that aims to explain differences in (youth) environmental attitudes focuses on the individual as the level of measurement. There is, however, a growing body of evidence that illustrates that the context within which that individual operates can contribute to their environmental attitudes. Based on the PISA 2006 data, and while controlling for individual characteristics, we tested Inglehart’s ‘objective problems, subjective values’ hypothesis. This hypothesis divides the contextual influences on environmental attitudes into (1) objective problems in the individual’s natural environment and (2) subjective values linked to post-materialistic goals in life. We analyzed both the individual and the country level simultaneously, controlling for compositional effects, by performing a multilevel analysis on the 2006 PISA data for youth environmental attitudes (398,750 15 year olds from 56 countries). At the individual level, the results are generally consistent with the literature; at the contextual level, the stage of development of a country (as a proxy for post-materialistic values) is shown to be unrelated to environmental attitudes. Both natural riches of a country and its environmental problems are shown to positively influence the environmental attitudes of that country’s youth. These results are discussed in relation to the ‘objective problems, subjective values’ hypothesis. The results also point towards the necessity of simultaneously assessing the effect of individual- and contextual-level characteristics on environmental attitudes.     

斜坡区和隆起区断裂密集带差异性及其对油气分布的控制作用

此文以霸县凹陷文安斜坡和饶阳凹陷留楚构造为研究对象,对比了斜坡区和隆起区断裂密集带的特征及其对不同构造部位油气分布的控制作用。在三维地震资料、钻井资料和已发现油气藏特征的基础上,利用断裂密集带识别方法和分类方案,识别出文安斜坡和留楚构造的断裂密集带,并对其进行了分类。对比两种构造部位断裂密集带发育的差异性及对油气分布的控制作用,认为隆起区(留楚构造)相对于斜坡区(文安斜坡)断裂密集带发育数量较少,规模大,斜坡区断裂密集带主要以顺向背形断裂密集带为主,而隆起区主要以屋脊背形断裂密集带为主,隆起区油气主要分布在顺向背形断裂密集带内,斜坡区主要分布在屋脊背形断裂密集带内部及靠近生烃中心的边部。     

Valuing Improvements in The Water Rights System in South Africa: A Contingent Ranking Approach1

Speelman, Stijn, Stefano Farolfi, Aymen Frija, and Guido Van Huylenbroeck, 2010. Valuing Improvements in the Water Rights System in South Africa: A Contingent Ranking Approach. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(6):1133–1144. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00480.x Abstract: In the context of increasing water scarcity, understanding is growing that irrigation water rights are important and that a lack of an effective water rights system constitutes a major reason for inefficient water management. This study carried out a contingent ranking experiment to study how smallholder irrigators in South Africa would value potential changes in water rights. Three specific dimensions of water rights, relevant for the South African case, are considered: duration, quality of title, and transferability. Results indicate that smallholder irrigators are prepared to pay considerably higher water prices if improvements are made in the water rights system. This implies that the proposed interventions in the water rights system would improve the efficiency and productivity of the small-scale irrigation sector. The increased willingness to pay could furthermore also assist the South African government to reach the objective of increased cost recovery.     

Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 1: The joint effort of the MICORE and ConHaz Projects

The current paper discusses the topic of marine storm impact along European coastlines, presenting results from two FP7 Projects currently focusing on this topic, one working on the physical aspects of the problem (MICORE) and the other one on the socio-economic implications (ConHaz).The MICORE Project aims to provide on-line predictions of storm-related physical hazards (hydrodynamic as well as morphodynamic). The ConHaz Project addresses the socio-economic implications should these (or other) hazards actually materialize. Together these projects aim to deliver crucial information for emergency response efforts, while realizing the practical limitations for information processing and dissemination during crisis situations.The MICORE Project has developed and demonstrated on-line tools for reliable predictions of the morphological impact of marine storm events in support of civil protection mitigation strategies. The project specifically targeted the development of early warning and information systems to support short term emergency response in case of an extreme storm event. The current paper discusses in detail the outcome of an activity of databasing historical storm data. No clear changes in storminess were observed, except for some storm proxies (e.g. surges) and only at some locations (e.g. northern Adriatic, southern Baltic, etc.).The ConHaz Project undertook a desktop study of the methods normally used for evaluating the impact of marine storms and the associated coastal hazards considering direct costs, costs due to disruption of production processes, indirect costs, intangible costs, and costs of adaptation and mitigation measures. Several methods for cost estimation were reviewed. From the review it emerged that normally end-users only evaluate direct costs after the storms, while the cost of adaptation and mitigation measures is only done strategically in the context of Integrated Coastal Zone Management plans. As there is no standardized method for cost evaluations in this field, it is suggested that clear guidelines should be produced on the basis of simplicity for use by end-users. The integration between historical databases of the physical parameters of storms and detailed cost evaluation information would support the development of a knowledge background in end-users and justify the development of adaptation strategies.     

In utero diagnosis and treatment of fetal goitrous hypothyroidism,caused by maternal use of propylthiouracil

A fetal goitre is a potentially dangerous phenomenon because of mechanical obstruction and possible fetal thyroid function disorders. In this report we describe a patient with Graves' disease diagnosed in early pregnancy and treated with propylthiouracil, which resulted in a large fetal goitre and fetal hypothyroidism. The diagnostic problems are discussed and we focus on the need for fetal thyroid hormone serum evaluation. The only reliable way to obtain information about the fetal thyroid status is percutaneous fetal umbilical cord blood sampling, since amniotic fluid levels do not properly represent the fetal thyroid function. Fetal hypothyroidism can thus be diagnosed in utero and treated with intra-amniotic injections of thyroxine. The recommended dose and frequency of injections are only based on a few case reports and for that reason we performed a second fetal blood sampling 1 week later to evaluate our therapy. Weekly intra-amniotic injections of 250 μg of thyroxine seem to be sufficient to reduce a fetal goitre and give a normal thyroid hormone level.     

Eco-efficiency trends of the Flemish industry: decoupling of environmental impact from economic growth

A methodology for eco-efficiency reporting is proposed with eco-efficiency indicators for climate change, acidification, photo-oxidant formation, human toxicity, freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity, eutrophication, energy consumption and waste generation. The method is applied to emission, consumption and production data of the Flemish industry provided by the Flemish environmental agency for the period 1995–2006. For climate change, acidification, photo-oxidant formation, human toxicity, freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity and eutrophication, the eco-efficiency improved by 39, 55, 41, 58, 72 and 53%, respectively. For each of these impact categories, the total environmental impact decreased despite an increase in production, indicating absolute decoupling of environmental impact from economic growth. The eco-efficiency indicator for energy consumption and waste generation improved by 16 and 14%, respectively. However, due to the increase in production, the total energy consumption and the amount of waste generated increased: for these two environmental themes decoupling from economic growth was relative. Despite the improved eco-efficiency, industry remains one of the main polluters in Flanders. The application of the method to emission, energy consumption and production data of the Flemish industry resulted in a comprehensive and correct source of information for the general public and the government. Moreover, it can serve as a basis for economically and environmentally sound decisions and for the evaluation of the impact of former decisions.