Integrating Environmental and Socio-Economic Indicators of a Linked Catchment–Coastal System Using Variable Environmental Intensity

Can we develop land use policy that balances the conflicting views of stakeholders in a catchment while moving toward long term sustainability? Adaptive management provides a strategy for this whereby measures of catchment performance are compared against performance goals in order to progressively improve policy. However, the feedback loop of adaptive management is often slow and irreversible impacts may result before policy has been adapted. In contrast, integrated modelling of future land use policy provides rapid feedback and potentially improves the chance of avoiding unwanted collapse events. Replacing measures of catchment performance with modelled catchment performance has usually required the dynamic linking of many models, both biophysical and socio-economic—and this requires much effort in software development. As an alternative, we propose the use of variable environmental intensity (defined as the ratio of environmental impact over economic output) in a loose coupling of models to provide a sufficient level of integration while avoiding significant effort required for software development. This model construct was applied to the Motueka Catchment of New Zealand where several biophysical (riverine water quantity, sediment, E. coli faecal bacteria, trout numbers, nitrogen transport, marine productivity) models, a socio-economic (gross output, gross margin, job numbers) model, and an agent-based model were linked. An extreme set of land use scenarios (historic, present, and intensive) were applied to this modelling framework. Results suggest that the catchment is presently in a near optimal land use configuration that is unlikely to benefit from further intensification. This would quickly put stress on water quantity (at low flow) and water quality (E. coli). To date, this model evaluation is based on a theoretical test that explores the logical implications of intensification at an unlikely extreme in order to assess the implications of likely growth trajectories from present use. While this has largely been a desktop exercise, it would also be possible to use this framework to model and explore the biophysical and economic impacts of individual or collective catchment visions. We are currently investigating the use of the model in this type of application.     

Food Aid and the Famine Relief Argument (Brief Return)

Recent publications by Pogge (Global ethics: seminal essays. St. Paul: Paragon House 2008) and by Singer (The life you can save: acting now to end world poverty. New York: Random House 2009) have resuscitated a debate over the justifiability of famine relief between Singer and ecologist Garrett Hardin in the 1970s. Yet that debate concluded with a general recognition that (a) general considerations of development ethics presented more compelling ethical problems than famine relief; and (b) some form of development would be essential to avoiding the problems of growth noted by Hardin. Better than renewing the debate, we should recognize two points. First, food needs do indeed evoke a moral response that is more direct and compelling than the philosophical positions often generated to rationalize a duty to bring aid. As such the argument for feeding hungry people cannot be generalized into a paradigm for development ethics without distortions that undercut the morally valid elements in Singer’s original argument. Second, contrary to prevailing assumptions in present day development ethics, food aid and famine relief continue to be important priorities for international agencies, notably the World Food Program. Emergency food assistance, the nominal topic of Singer’s original article, thus is an important issue for agricultural as well as development ethics, though one that should indeed be seen as distinct from more complex duties to address the conditions of chronic poverty and underdevelopment.     

Closing a Loop: Substance Flow Analysis of Nitrogen and Phosphorus in the Rainbow Trout Production and Domestic Consumption System in Finland

Ongoing eutrophication is changing the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Aquaculture causes relatively small-scale nutrient emissions, but local environmental impact may be considerable. We used substance flow analysis (SFA) to identify and quantify the most significant flows and stocks of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) related to rainbow trout aquaculture in Finland. In 2004–2007, the input of nutrients to the system in the form of fish feed was 829 t N year⁻¹ and 115 t P year⁻¹. Around one-fifth of these nutrients ended up as food for human consumption. Of the primary input, 70% ended up in the Baltic Sea, directly from aquaculture and indirectly through waste management. The nutrient cycle could be closed partially by using local fish instead of imported fish in rainbow trout feed, thus reducing the net load of N and P to a fraction.     

The Fallacies of Concurrent Climate Policy Efforts

Climate policy has assumed an extreme degree of urgency in the international debate in recent years. This article begins by taking a critical look at the scientific underpinnings of the efforts to stabilize the climate. It points to several serious question marks on the purported relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and global warming, and expresses distrust about claims of impending catastrophes related to rising sea levels, hurricanes, and spread of infectious disease. It then reviews the concurrent climate policy efforts and concludes that they are incoherent, misguided and unduly costly, and that they have so far had no perceptible impact on anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The exceedingly ambitious policy plans currently under preparation suffer from similar fallacies. For these reasons, but also because of the remaining scientific doubts and the exorbitant costs that have to be incurred, skepticism is expressed about the preparedness to implement the climate policy plans currently on the table.     

Patagonian Fjord Ecosystems in Southern Chile as a Highly Vulnerable Region: Problems and Needs

Southern Chile encompasses one of the most extensive fjord regions of the world, the Patagonia, currently exposed to natural and anthropogenic perturbations. These fjord ecosystems provide important services to humans, which have not been adequately measured and valued. As a consequence, ecosystem services are commonly ignored in public policy design and in the evaluation of development projects. Here we tackle questions that are highly relevant for the nation’s development, namely (1) understanding fjord functioning, and (2) developing management strategies based on ecosystem services, in order to secure simultaneous and adequate use of these ecosystems which area influenced by ecological (e.g., biogeochemical) and productive (e.g., aquaculture, fisheries) processes. We also seek to strengthen the analysis of fjord ecosystem value from the economical (including coastal zoning), socio-cultural, institutional, and governmental points of view. In addition, the investigation of current and future effects of climate change on this large region offers a unique opportunity to understand the social and economic consequences of a global phenomenon at local to regional scales. Biogeochemical and socio-economic models will be used to simulate future scenarios under a gamut of management options.     

The World Needs a New Energy Paradigm

During 19–20 October 2009, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences arranged the international symposium Energy 2050 in Stockholm. The symposium was held in association with the Swedish EU presidency in autumn 2009. Internationally renowned scientists assessed the energy issue in a broad perspective, with particular emphasis on the possibilities of a fossil-free future. The symposium focused on key topics emanating from the in-depth energy studies carried through by the Academy´s Energy Committee since 2005. The world community is facing a challenge of historic proportions to define a new energy paradigm based on fossil-energy substitutes. This article gives an overview of the current global energy situation (2007) and of the technologies which have the major potential for supplying energy up to year 2050 without jeopardizing the CO₂ emission targets.     

Mapping Biological Resources in the Coastal Zone: An Evaluation of Methods in a Pioneering Study from Norway

For many years, the planning and management of terrestrial areas has been supported by a detailed knowledge of the distribution of habitats and their associated species. However, the detailed mapping of biological resources in extent coastal areas, such as the Norwegian coastal zone, is unrealistic due to its enormous coastline. Here, we present a useful and feasible approach and a set of simple, cost-effective methods which are suitable for providing a broad-scale overview of marine habitats and fish resources. This approach was developed in conjunction with a pioneer study conducted along the southern coast of the Skagerrak, where we combined knowledge gathered from local fishermen with scientific knowledge of important species and nature types to establish a coastal sea mapping program. GIS modeling tools were used in both the mapping program and to integrate local and scientific knowledge into digital maps made available to local area management. This multi-faceted approach, which combines local knowledge and scientific methods, provides valuable information with respect to marine biodiversity, and has been used extensively by local environmental management.