Climate and Land Use Effects on Hydrologic Processes in a Primarily Rain‐Fed,Agricultural Watershed

Anticipating changes in hydrologic variables is essential for making socioeconomic water resource decisions. This study aims to assess the potential impact of land use and climate change on the hydrologic processes of a primarily rain‐fed, agriculturally based watershed in Missouri. A detailed evaluation was performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for the near future (2020–2039) and mid‐century (2040–2059). Land use scenarios were mapped using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects model. Ensemble results, based on 19 climate models, indicated a temperature increase of about 1.0°C in near future and 2.0°C in mid‐century. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed distinct annual and seasonal hydrologic variations. Annual precipitation was projected to increase from 6% to 7%, which resulted in 14% more spring days with soil water content equal to or exceeding field capacity in mid‐century. However, summer precipitation was projected to decrease, a critical factor for crop growth. Higher temperatures led to increased potential evapotranspiration during the growing season. Combined with changes in precipitation patterns, this resulted in an increased need for irrigation by 38 mm representing a 10% increase in total irrigation water use. Analysis from multiple land use scenarios indicated converting agriculture to forest land can potentially mitigate the effects of climate change on streamflow, thus ensuring future water availability.     

Resolution and Analysis of Spatial Variations and Patterns in an Urban Lake with Rapid Profiling Instrumentation

Rapid response vertical profiling instrumentation was used to document spatial variability and patterns in a small urban lake, Onondaga Lake, associated with multiple drivers. Paired profiles of temperature, specific conductance (SC), turbidity (T_n), fluorometric chlorophyll a (Chl_f), and nitrate nitrogen (NO₃^?) were collected at >30 fixed locations (a “gridding”) weekly, over the spring to fall interval of several years. These gridding data are analyzed (1) to characterize phytoplankton (Chl_f) patchiness in the lake's upper waters, (2) to establish the representativeness of a single long‐term site for monitoring lake‐wide conditions, and (3) to resolve spatial patterns of multiple tracers imparted by buoyancy effects of inflows. Multiple buoyancy signatures were resolved, including overflows from less dense inflows, and interflows to metalimnetic depths and underflows to the bottom from the plunging of more dense inputs. Three different metrics had utility as tracers in depicting the buoyancy signatures as follows: (1) SC, for salinity‐enriched tributaries and the more dilute river that receives the lake's outflow, (2) T_n, for the tributaries during runoff events, and (3) NO₃^?, for the effluent of a domestic waste treatment facility and from the addition of NO₃^? solution to control methyl mercury. The plunging inflow phenomenon, which frequently prevailed, has important management implications.     

Building a Sustainable Future for Animal Agriculture: An Environmental Virtue Ethic of Care Approach within the Philosophy of Technology

Agricultural technologies are non-neutral and ethical challenges are posed by these technologies themselves. The technologies we use or endorse are embedded with values and norms and reflect the shape of our moral character. They can literally make us better or worse consumers and/or people. Looking back, when the world’s developed nations welcomed and steadily embraced industrialization as the dominant paradigm for agriculture a half century or so ago, they inadvertently championed a philosophy of technology that promotes an insular human-centricism, despite its laudable intent to ensure food security and advance human flourishing. The dominant philosophy of technology has also seeded particular ethical consequences that plague the well-being of human beings, the planet, and farmed animals. After revisiting some fundamental questions regarding the complex ways in which technology as agent shapes our lives and choices and relegates food and farmed constituents into technological artifacts or commodities, I argue that we should accord an environmental virtue ethic of care—understood as caretaking—a central place in developing a more conscientious philosophy of technology that aims at sustainability, fairness, and humaneness in animal agriculture. While technology shapes society, it also is socially shaped and an environmental virtue ethic of care (EVEC) as an alternative design philosophy has the tools to help us take a much overdue inventory of ourselves and our relationships with the nonhuman world. It can help us to expose the ways in which technology hinders critical reflection of its capacity to alter communities and values, to come to terms with why we may be, in general, disengaged from critical ethical analysis of contemporary agriculture and to consider the moral shape and trajectory and the sustainability of our food production systems going into the future. I end by outlining particular virtues associated with the ethic of care discussed here and consider some likely implications for consumers and industry technocrats as they relate to farming animals.     

Integrating Environmental and Socio-Economic Indicators of a Linked Catchment–Coastal System Using Variable Environmental Intensity

Can we develop land use policy that balances the conflicting views of stakeholders in a catchment while moving toward long term sustainability? Adaptive management provides a strategy for this whereby measures of catchment performance are compared against performance goals in order to progressively improve policy. However, the feedback loop of adaptive management is often slow and irreversible impacts may result before policy has been adapted. In contrast, integrated modelling of future land use policy provides rapid feedback and potentially improves the chance of avoiding unwanted collapse events. Replacing measures of catchment performance with modelled catchment performance has usually required the dynamic linking of many models, both biophysical and socio-economic—and this requires much effort in software development. As an alternative, we propose the use of variable environmental intensity (defined as the ratio of environmental impact over economic output) in a loose coupling of models to provide a sufficient level of integration while avoiding significant effort required for software development. This model construct was applied to the Motueka Catchment of New Zealand where several biophysical (riverine water quantity, sediment, E. coli faecal bacteria, trout numbers, nitrogen transport, marine productivity) models, a socio-economic (gross output, gross margin, job numbers) model, and an agent-based model were linked. An extreme set of land use scenarios (historic, present, and intensive) were applied to this modelling framework. Results suggest that the catchment is presently in a near optimal land use configuration that is unlikely to benefit from further intensification. This would quickly put stress on water quantity (at low flow) and water quality (E. coli). To date, this model evaluation is based on a theoretical test that explores the logical implications of intensification at an unlikely extreme in order to assess the implications of likely growth trajectories from present use. While this has largely been a desktop exercise, it would also be possible to use this framework to model and explore the biophysical and economic impacts of individual or collective catchment visions. We are currently investigating the use of the model in this type of application.     

Hydrological Controls and Freshening in Meromictic Soap Lake,Washington, 1939-20021

Kallis, Jahn, Leo Bodensteiner, and Anthony Gabriel, 2010. Hydrological Controls and Freshening in Meromictic Soap Lake, Washington, 1939-2002. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(4): 744-756. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00446.x Abstract: The chemically stratified layer of naturally formed meromictic lakes exhibits unusual and often extreme physical and chemical conditions that have resulted in the evolution of uniquely adapted species. The Columbia Basin Irrigation Project appears to have had a marked effect on the hydrology of Soap Lake, a meromictic lake in the Grand Coulee of central Washington. The relation of hydrology to salinity was assessed by analyzing water budgets before and after the introduction of the irrigation project. Before irrigation, water gains were balanced by losses; after irrigation began groundwater gains approximately doubled. To manage lake levels and reduce groundwater influx, wells were installed to intercept groundwater. Although the hydrological cycle has been restored to pre-irrigation conditions, the meromictic character of the lake continues to change. Interception wells remove 10 to 16 Mm³ of groundwater annually, but influx continues based on change in the monimolimnion. From 1958 to 2003 the chemocline descended 1.1 m and the volume of the monimolimnion from 698,000 m³ to 114,000 m³. Annual loss of volume is occurring at a rate of 1.9% since 1958. Although groundwater interception wells are maintaining the volume of the entire lake, the recession of the chemocline indicates that conditions that have maintained meromixis at Soap Lake are currently not in equilibrium.     

Using flue gas desulfurization gypsum to remove dissolved phosphorus from agricultural drainage waters

High levels of accumulated phosphorus (P) in soils of the Delmarva Peninsula are a major source of dissolved P entering drainage ditches that empty into the Chesapeake Bay. The objective of this study was to design, construct, and monitor a within-ditch filter to remove dissolved P, thereby protecting receiving waters against P losses from upstream areas. In April 2007, 110 Mg of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) gypsum, a low-cost coal combustion product, was used as the reactive ingredient in a ditch filter. The ditch filter was monitored from 2007 to 2010, during which time 29 storm-induced flow events were characterized. For storm-induced flow, the event mean concentration efficiency for total dissolved P (TDP) removal for water passing through the gypsum bed was 73 ± 27% confidence interval (α = 0.05). The removal efficiency for storm-induced flow by the summation of load method was 65 ± 27% confidence interval (α = 0.05). Although chemically effective, the maximum observed hydraulic conductivity of FGD gypsum was 4 L s(-1), but it decreased over time to <1 L s(-1). When bypass flow and base flow were taken into consideration, the ditch filter removed approximately 22% of the TDP load over the 3.6-yr monitoring period. Due to maintenance and clean-out requirements, we conclude that ditch filtration using FGD gypsum is not practical at a farm scale. However, we propose an alternate design consisting of FGD gypsum-filled trenches parallel to the ditch to intercept and treat groundwater before it enters the ditch.     

Hydropower,adaptive management,and Biodiversity

Adaptive management is a policy framework within which an iterative process of decision making is followed based on the observed responses to and effectiveness of previous decisions. The use of adaptive management allows science-based research and monitoring of natural resource and ecological community responses, in conjunction with societal values and goals, to guide decisions concerning man's activities. The adaptive management process has been proposed for application to hydropower operations at Glen Canyon Dam on the Colorado River, a situation that requires complex balancing of natural resources requirements and competing human uses. This example is representative of the general increase in public interest in the operation of hydropower facilities and possible effects on downstream natural resources and of the growing conflicts between uses and users of river-based resources. This paper describes the adaptive management process, using the Glen Canyon Dam example, and discusses ways to make the process work effectively in managing downstream natural resources and biodiversity.     

Collective risk management: insights and opportunities for DoD decision-makers

Individuals make decisions every day in group contexts which vary in size, structure, and purpose. The US Department of Defense (DoD) is a large organization composed of many groups, and like many organizations, it has a vested interest in improving the performance of its affiliated groups, especially as it concerns risk-informed decision-making. This article discusses current foibles and considerations for decision-making in DoD groups as identified through a workshop with experts in risk-informed decision-making, cognitive science, and military operations. Experts noted that terms associated with risk-informed decision-making were often misconstrued, that formal decision-making frameworks are underutilized, and that many considerations should be taken into account when attempting to improve decision-making performance.     

INTERDISCIPLINARY MODELING IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SALINITY PROBLEMS OF THE SAFFORD VALLEY1

ABSTRACT: A groundwater quality change of +0.13 millimhos electrical conductivity was documented between 1940 and 1 972 in the Safford Valley. The change is attributable to four principal mechanisms: pumping-encouraged saline artesian aquifer leakage, natural recharge of the water table aquifer by saline waters, leaching of agricultural waters into the aquifer and the lateral flow of groundwater through saline lacustrine beds. A hydrologic study of the area has shown the first of these mechanisms to be predominant. Salinity modeling has shown three regions of salinity change, and salinity increase projections for each are determined. An economic analysis and an economic model are then combined with the physical model, yielding information as to when certain economic conditions are reached with respect to the salinity increase. This combined model shows that, based on projected salinity trends, cotton, the principal agricultural crop of the valley, will remain economical to cultivate for a significant time beyond the model's limit of prediction. Alfalfa, on the other hand, should go out of production in large areas of the valley by 1990, and not be under economical cultivation by 2040. A sociologic model, based on the cluster analysis of questionnaire data, shows an awareness of the salinity problems of the area but little concern over them. Interdisciplinary model based salinity control regulations are made.     

Whole-stream response to nitrate loading in three streams draining agricultural landscapes

Physical, chemical, hydrologic, and biologic factors affecting nitrate (NO3(-)) removal were evaluated in three agricultural streams draining orchard/dairy and row crop settings. Using 3-d "snapshots" during biotically active periods, we estimated reach-level NO3(-) sources, NO3(-) mass balance, in-stream processing (nitrification, denitrification, and NO3(-) uptake), and NO3(-) retention potential associated with surface water transport and ground water discharge. Ground water contributed 5 to 11% to stream discharge along the study reaches and 8 to 42% of gross NO3(-) input. Streambed processes potentially reduced 45 to 75% of ground water NO3(-) before discharge to surface water. In all streams, transient storage was of little importance for surface water NO3(-) retention. Estimated nitrification (1.6-4.4 mg N m(-2) h(-1)) and unamended denitrification rates (2.0-16.3 mg N m(-2) h(-1)) in sediment slurries were high relative to pristine streams. Denitrification of NO3(-) was largely independent of nitrification because both stream and ground water were sources of NO3(-). Unamended denitrification rates extrapolated to the reach-scale accounted for <5% of NO3(-) exported from the reaches minimally reducing downstream loads. Nitrate retention as a percentage of gross NO3(-) inputs was >30% in an organic-poor, autotrophic stream with the lowest denitrification potentials and highest benthic chlorophyll a, photosynthesis/respiration ratio, pH, dissolved oxygen, and diurnal NO3(-) variation. Biotic processing potentially removed 75% of ground water NO3(-) at this site, suggesting an important role for photosynthetic assimilation of ground water NO3(-) relative to subsurface denitrification as water passed directly through benthic diatom beds.