Combining a generic process-based productivity model and a statistical classification method to predict the presence and absence of tree species in the Pacific Northwest,U.S.A.

Although long-lived tree species experience considerable environmental variation over their life spans, their geographical distributions reflect sensitivity mainly to mean monthly climatic conditions. We introduce an approach that incorporates a physiologically based growth model to illustrate how a half-dozen tree species differ in their responses to monthly variation in four climatic-related variables: water availability, deviations from an optimum temperature, atmospheric humidity deficits, and the frequency of frost. Rather than use climatic data directly to correlate with a species’ distribution, we assess the relative constraints of each of the four variables as they affect predicted monthly photosynthesis for Douglas-fir, the most widely distributed species in the region. We apply an automated regression-tree analysis to create a suite of rules, which differentially rank the relative importance of the four climatic modifiers for each species, and provide a basis for predicting a species’ presence or absence on 3737 uniformly distributed U.S. Forest Services’ Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) field survey plots. Results of this generalized rule-based approach were encouraging, with weighted accuracy, which combines the correct prediction of both presence and absence on FIA survey plots, averaging 87%. A wider sampling of climatic conditions throughout the full range of a species’ distribution should improve the basis for creating rules and the possibility of predicting future shifts in the geographic distribution of species.     

重型柴油车车载排放实测与加载影响研究

采用车载排放测试仪,对2辆重型柴油卡车在空载和加载条件下进行实际道路车载排放测试.通过分析获得了油耗与排放速率的速度-加速度及其工况点的分布,发现高油耗与高排放工况点主要集中在高速加速区域,加载时油耗与排放高值随工况点分布更广;车辆在(30±2.5)km·h^-1等速及加速行驶时受加载影响最大,此时加载油耗与排放约是空载的1.6～3.2倍左右;由实测结果发现,卡车Ⅰ和卡车Ⅱ加载时油耗及CO、HC、NO_x排放因子分别是空载的1.6倍、3.5倍、1.1倍、1.5倍以及1.2倍、1.0倍、0.9倍和1.5倍,加载对油耗与NO_x排放影响最为明显,对HC影响最小,CO影响取决于车辆保养水平;卡车Ⅱ较卡车Ⅰ车型更大,发动机功率更高,相同荷载时受加载影响较小,说明重型车在发动机负荷可承受的范围内合理装载,有助于避免油耗与排放恶化,提高燃油经济性和排放水平.     

Modeling affective and cognitive responses to soft-target terrorism over time

Environment Systems and Decisions - There is great value in understanding the public’s reactions to terror attacks, though such reactions pose stark challenges for sound psychological...     

Risk perception and trust in the context of urban brownfields

Data are reported from a postal questionnaire completed by 747 residents of two urban local authority areas within which there were sites of brownfield land with significant levels of contamination. Respondents rated their perceptions of the extent to which their neighbourhood and own home were relatively vulnerable to contamination, their concern about possible effects of contamination, their satisfaction with their council in terms of consultation with residents on housing and development issues, and their trust in their council with respect to contaminated land risks. Satisfaction with, and trust in, the council was generally low in both areas, and especially so among those who perceived themselves to be more vulnerable to contamination. Nonetheless, dissatisfaction was less marked in the area where the local authority, according to background information, had pursued a more open and proactive style of risk communication and consultation with residents. The main predictors of trust, across both areas, were perceptions that the council was openly prepared to tell residents what they knew, and that the council had residents' interests at heart. Implications are discussed for the impact of different modes of risk communication on trust.     

A mass budget of polybrominated diphenyl ethers in San Francisco Bay, CA

A mass budget of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in San Francisco Bay is developed as a first step towards understanding the local sources and transport processes controlling PBDE fate in a highly urbanized estuary. Extensive monitoring of PBDEs in estuarine water and sediment, freshwater tributaries, air, and wastewater effluents and sludges were integrated with a mass budget model to provide a synthetic view of these emerging contaminants. The Bay inventories of BDE 47 and BDE 209 in 2006 were estimated to be 33+/-3 kg and 153+/-45 kg, respectively. Empirically derived estimates of annual inputs of BDE 47 and BDE 209 from all quantifiable external sources ranged from 11 to 28 kg/y and 22 to 24 kg/y, respectively. BDE 47 loads were dominated by wastewater while runoff from local tributaries represented the largest contributor to BDE 209 loads. Model results suggest the Bay PBDE inventory is highly sensitive to changes in external loads, with degradation and outflow being the major processes governing PBDE fate. The mass budget presented provides a framework for integrating future monitoring and modeling efforts.     

How well do predators adjust to climate-mediated shifts in prey distribution? A study on Australian water pythons

Climate change can move the spatial location of resources critical for population viability, and a species' resilience to such changes will depend upon its ability to flexibly shift its activities away from no-longer-suitable sites to exploit new opportunities. Intuition suggests that vagile predators should be able to track spatial shifts in prey availability, but our data on water pythons (Liasisfuscus) in tropical Australia suggest a less encouraging scenario. These pythons undergo regular long-range (to >10 kmin) seasonal migrations to follow flooding-induced migrations by their prey (native dusky rats, Rattus colletti). However, when an extreme flooding event virtually eliminated rats for a three-year period, the local pythons did not disperse despite the presence of abundant rats only 8 km away; instead, many pythons starved to death. This inflexibility suggests that some vagile species that track seasonally migrating prey may do so by responding to habitat attributes that have consistently predicted prey availability over evolutionary time, rather than reacting to proximate cues that signal the presence of prey per se. A species' vulnerability to climate change will be increased by an inability to shift its activities away from historical sites toward newly favorable areas.     

Seedling growth responses to soil resources in the understory of a wet tropical forest

Plant growth responses to resources may be an important mechanism that influences species' distributions, coexistence, and community structure. Irradiance is considered the most important resource for seedling growth in the understory of wet tropical forests, but multiple soil nutrients and species have yet to be examined simultaneously with irradiance under field conditions. To identify potentially limiting resources, we modeled tree seedling growth as a function of irradiance and soil nutrients across five sites, spanning a soil fertility gradient in old-growth, wet tropical forests at La Selva Biological Station, Costa Rica. We measured an array of soil nutrients including total nitrogen (total N), inorganic N (nitrate [NO3-] and ammonium [NH4+]), phosphate (PO4-), and sum of base cations (SBC; potassium, magnesium, and calcium). Shade in the forest understory did not preclude seedling growth correlations with soil nutrients. Irradiance was a significant predictor of growth in 52% of the species, inorganic N in 54% (NO3- in 32%; NH4+ in 34%), total N in 47%, SBC in 39%, and PO4- in 29%. Overall, growth was correlated with both irradiance and soil nutrients in 45% of species and with soil nutrients only in an additional 48%; rarely was irradiance alone correlated with growth. Contrary to expectations, the magnitudes of growth effects, assessed as the maximum growth response to significant resources for each species, were similar for irradiance and most soil nutrients. Among species whose growth correlated with soil nutrients, the rank importance of nutrient effects was SBC, followed by N (total N, NO3-, and/or NH4+) and PO4-. Species' growth responsiveness (i.e., magnitudes of effect) to irradiance and soil nutrients was negatively correlated with species' shade tolerance (survival under 1% full sun). In this broad survey of species and resources, the nearly ubiquitous effects of soil nutrients on seedling growth challenge the idea that soil nutrients are less important than irradiance in the light-limited understory of wet tropical forests.     

Sport and commercial fishing conflicts: A theoretical analysis

A recreational sector is added to a standard commercial fishing optimal control model to identify public decision variables which should be considered when determining optimal population levels and allocating harvestable fish between sport and commercial users. Both linear and nonlinear models are presented. A predator-prey relationship is also considered. Results derived from the models indicate that shortcomings exist with current economic inputs to policy making because of failure to consider relevant bioeconomic relationships. Future research topics to remedy this are discussed.