FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: This research investigates the benefits of forecasting in water supply systems. Questions relating operational losses to forecast period and accuracy are addressed. Some simple available forecasting techniques are assessed for their accuracy and applicability. These issues are addressed through the use of a simulation model of the Cedar and South Fork Tolt Rivers, where the system is modeled as a single purpose reservoir supplying municipal and industrial water to the Seattle metropolitan area. The following conclusions were made for this system: (1) reservoir operation deteriorates markedly with the loss of forecast accuracy; (2) the optimal length of forecasting period is five months; (3) reservoir operation may be improved by as much as 88 percent if perfect predictive abilities are available; (4) the mean of the historic data is not recommended to predict future flows because Markov methods are always superior; and (5) lag-one autoregressive Markov schemes exhibit about a 9 percent improvement in operation over no forecasting.     

MEASURING THE SITE-SPECIFIC RECREATION BENEFITS RESULTING FROM IMPROVED WATER QUALITY: AN UPPER BOUND APPROACH1

The estimation of the value of recreation benefits resulting from improved water quality is required for many purposes. In particular, the Water Pollution Control Act of 1980 requires the consideration of the reasonableness of costs of reducing water pollution in relation to benefits to be derived from establishing effluent standards (Clean Water Act of 1977). Recreation is often the most important benefit resulting from water quality improvement. Current methods used to calculate recreation benefits are either not site-specific or are expensive and controversial. This paper presents a relatively simple, inexpensive, and less controversial method of calculating site-specific recreation benefits resulting from improved water quality. It does this by producing an upper bound estimate which often is adequate for the relevant decision. The upper bound estimates is based on two assumptions: 1) there are alternative equivalent substitute sites for the newly augmented water quality site, and 2) the new augmented recreation opportunities at the site will be used to their maximum supply capacity. Clearly, if an upper bound benefit estimate in a cost-benefit ratio does not produce a favorable ratio, no other benefit estimate will. In cases where this estimate produces an ambiguous result resort must be had to other more precise methods of estimation.     

Hedgerows and hedgerow networks in landscape ecology

Hedgerows originated and coexist with agriculture. Their internal structure and species diversity vary widely with origin (planted, spontaneous, or remnant), farming practices in adjacent fields, and the refined art of hedgerow management. Most hedgerow species are forest-edge species, and apparently none is limited to hedgerows. Wide hedgerows composed of trees and shrubs appear to function as corridors for movement of many plants and animals across a landscape. The reduction of crop loss, by dampening pest population fluctuations with hedgerow predators, remains a hypothesis for study.Field microclimate downwind of a hedgerow is modified about 16 times the hedgerow height (h) for evaporation, and approximately 28 h for wind speed. A turbulent wind pattern with harsher microclimate is present at 6–8 h if a second hedgerow is nearby downwind. Zones of higher crop productivity at 3- to 6-h downwind, and 2- to 6-h upwind of a second hedgerow may be expected. Overall, we expect little short-term difference in farm-field production with or without hedgerows.Evidence suggests that hedgerow networks, and especially their mesh size (of fields), exert a major control on many major landscape fluxes. Such fluxes include animal populations, wind speed, evapotranspiration and soil desiccation, soil erosion and nutrient runoff, species movement along network lines, and movement of field species across the network. In a relatively short period, the hedgerow ecosystem, with no unique species, has attained a metastable equilibrium, which is regulated by enormous human inputs.More than 20 economic roles of hedgerows are pinpointed. The roles, providing resources and protection of resources, are poorly known quantitatively. We conclude that hedgerows perform diverse functions for society and the farmer that are both economically and ecologically significant.     

Performance of an in situ passive sampling system for metals in stormwater

A passive sampler has been developed and is demonstrated in situ for urban runoff. The passive sampler is compared to conventional composite (time-dependent and flow-weighted) bottle sampling during and between storm events. The sampling was carried out at established stormwater stations; before and after a stormwater detention pond. In situ deployment of the passive sampler provides the metal concentrations, corresponding to the electrochemically available fraction of total metal, for time-dependent samples collected in parallel. The sampler provides improved accuracy compared to bottle sampling because contamination during sample transport and handling is minimised. Laboratory handling is reduced by direct analysis of the accumulated metals on the receiving membrane by laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Passive sampling also solves the problem of metal speciation change during transport to the laboratory, which is a potential problem for bottle samples. The low cost and convenience of the passive sampler and subsequent analysis should allow significantly more extensive spatial and temporal monitoring of metals in the aquatic environment than has previously been possible.     

On stabilizing CO2 concentrations – cost‐effective emission reduction strategies

With the adoption of the Berlin Mandate, developed countries are being asked to set emission limits for the early decades of the next century. The size of the reductions is currently the subject of international negotiations. This paper is intended to contribute to the analysis and assessment phase leading up to the adoption of new targets and timetables. However, we take a somewhat different approach than that suggested by the Berlin Mandate. Rather than focus exclusively on the next steps by developed countries, we view the issue from the perspective of the Convention's ultimate objective, the stabilization of atmospheric concentrations. We examine what might constitute costeffective strategies for limiting CO₂ concentrations to alternative levels. We then explore the implications for nearterm mitigation decisions and for longterm participation by the developing countries.     

South Africa's arid and semiarid rangelands: Why are they changing and can they be restored?

Since the mid-19th century settled livestock ranching has been the major form of land use in South Africa, occupying 68% of the land surface. Decreases in livestock densities and ranch numbers during the past century imply that carrying capacities for domestic herbivores are falling. Differences in carbon isotope signals with soil depth and abrupt shifts in dominant plant species across ranch boundaries reveal that southern African rangelands are changing. Case studies suggest ways to control altered grassland composition, bush encroachment in arid savanna, and dominance by toxic and halophytic shrubs in arid shrublands. But climatic and biological factors constrain rates of passive recovery, and guidelines for active restoration are poor and techniques costly. Moreover, conservation of remaining good rangeland is seldom enforced, and economic considerations usually outweight the land user's desire to sustain diversity and productivity.     

Characterizing and Controlling Industrial Dust: A Case Study in Small Particle Measurement

Instrumentation used to measure characteristics of fine particles entrained in gas or suspended in aerosols provides information needed to develop valid regulations for emission sources and to support the design of control technologies. This case study offers a brief history of micromeritics, a term used by early researchers to describe the science of small particles, and the related invention of laboratory instruments for characterizing very fine particles. The historical view provides insights into the role that Progressive Era government agencies played in advancing esoteric science and applying this knowledge to the regulation of workplace air pollution. Micromeritics instrumentation developed in conjunction with federal research now has many commercial applications worldwide, with characterizing airborne pollutants only a minor one. However, the continuing advances in the micromeritics field provide important laboratory measurement capabilities to environmental research organizations, such as the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH).     

Spatial Relationships Between Water Quality and Pesticide Application Rates in Agricultural Watersheds

Pesticide applications to agricultural lands in California, USA, are reported to a central data base, while data on water and sediment quality are collected by a number of monitoring programs. Data from both sources are geo-referenced, allowing spatial analysis of relationships between pesticide application rates and the chemical and biological condition of water bodies. This study collected data from 12 watersheds, selected to represent a range of pesticide usage. Water quality parameters were measured during six surveys of stream sites receiving runoff from the selected watershed areas. This study had three objectives: to evaluate the usefulness of pesticide application data in selecting regional monitoring sites, to provide information for generating and testing hypotheses about pesticide fate and effects, and to determine whether in-stream nitrate concentration was a useful surrogate indicator for regional monitoring of toxic substances. Significant correlations were observed between pesticide application rates and in-stream pesticide concentrations (p < 0.05) and toxicity (p < 0.10). In-stream nitrate concentrations were not significantly correlated with either the amount of pesticides applied, in-stream pesticide concentrations, or in-stream toxicity (all p > 0.30). Neither total watershed area nor the area in which pesticide usage was reported correlated significantly with the amount of pesticides applied, in-stream pesticide concentrations, or in-stream toxicity (all p > 0.14). In-stream pesticide concentrations and effects were more closely related to the intensity of pesticide use than to the area under cultivation.     

Locational differences in metal concentrations in feathers of Australasian gannet (Morus serrator) in New Zealand

Levels of lead, cadmium, mercury, selenium, manganese and chromium were examined in breast feathers of Australasian Gannets (Morus serrator) from New Zealand waters, where they breed on coastal rocky stacks, islands, and occasionally coastal headlands. There were significant differences in the concentrations of all metals except mercury, with gannets from Ninety Mile Beach having significantly lower levels of all metals than those from the other beaches. Ninety Mile Beach is on the northern tip of the North Island, away from urbanization and industrialization, whereas the other beaches are closer to Auckland, the largest city in New Zealand. The levels of most metals were similar or lower than those reported for feathers from elsewhere around the world. Mercury, however, was at the high end, being exceeded only by raptors and gulls from industrialized countries. Several metal levels were highly correlated, indicating that gannets were usually exposed to several metals at once.