Analysis and prediction of global climate temperature change based on multiforced observational statistics

The response of the climate system to increasing greenhouse gases was simulated by a number of climate model projections. There is an urgent need to verify or falsify these projections against observational climate data. Therefore, in this contribution, surface air temperature data are considered covering on a global average the period 1861-1990 and on a northern hemisphere average 1670-1990 (including proxy data). Based on a multiple correlation and coherence analysis a regression model is evaluated which is simultaneously forced by the observed or reconstructed atmospheric CO(2) or equivalent CO(2) concentration increase, volcanic activity, solar variations, and the ENSO (El Ni?o/southern oscillation) mechanism including phase shifts between cause and effect. This model reveals a greenhouse-gas-induced mean global temperature rise of 0.6-0.8 K since preindustrial time (c. 1800-1990). Following the IPCC business-as-usual scenario (trend extrapolation) this would lead to a hypothetical 3.8 K temperature rise in 2100 (best estimate, uncertainty + 0.7/-0.4 K compared to the 1985 value.     

Home transport and wastage: environmentally relevant household activities in the life cycle of food

In environmental systems analysis of food production systems, the consumer phase (home transport, cooking, storing, and wastage) is an important contributor to the total life-cycle environmental impact. However, households are the least investigated part of the food chain. Information gathering about households involves difficulties; the number of households is large, and food-related activities are embedded in other household activities. In cooperation between researchers from environmental systems analysis and consumer research, Swedish households were surveyed by questionnaire, diary, and interviews. Data on home transport of food and wastage were collected. The average weekly driving distance was 28 to 63 km per household, depending on how trips made in conjunction with other errands are allocated. The wastage of prepared food ranged between 0 and 34% for different food categories, and wastage from storing between 0 and 164% (more food was discarded, e.g. by cleaning out a cupboard, than consumed). In both cases dairy products scored highest.     

Coping with uncertainty: a call for a new science-policy forum

The scientific and policy worlds have different goals, which can lead to different standards for what constitutes "proof" of a change or phenomena, and different approaches for characterizing and conveying uncertainty and risk. These differences can compromise effective communication among scientists, policymakers, and the public, and constrain the types of socially compelling questions scientists are willing to address. In this paper, we review a set of approaches for dealing with uncertainty, and illustrate some of the errors that arise when science and policy fail to coordinate correctly. We offer a set of recommendations, including restructuring of science curricula and establishment of science-policy forums populated by leaders in both arenas, and specifically constituted to address problems of uncertainty.     

Holocene biomass burning and global dynamics of the carbon cycle

Fire regimes have changed during the Holocene due to changes in climate, vegetation, and in human practices. Here, we hypothesise that changes in fire regime may have affected the global CO2 concentration in the atmosphere through the Holocene. Our data are based on quantitative reconstructions of biomass burning deduced from stratified charcoal records from Europe, and South-, Central- and North America, and Oceania to test the fire-carbon release hypothesis. In Europe the significant increase of fire activity is dated approximately 6000 cal. yr ago. In north-eastern North America burning activity was greatest before 7500 years ago, very low between 7500-3000 years, and has been increasing since 3000 years ago. In tropical America, the pattern is more complex and apparently latitudinally zonal. Maximum burning occurred in the southern Amazon basin and in Central America during the middle Holocene, and during the last 2000 years in the northern Amazon basin. In Oceania, biomass burning has decreased since a maximum 5000 years ago. Biomass burning has broadly increased in the Northern and Southern hemispheres throughout the second half of the Holocene associated with changes in climate and human practices. Global fire indices parallel the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration recorded in Antarctic ice cores. Future issues on carbon dynamics relatively to biomass burning are discussed to improve the quantitative reconstructions.     

Evaluation of the Galega-Rhizobium galegae system for the bioremediation of oil-contaminated soil

The bioremediation potential of a nitrogen-fixing leguminous plant, Galega orientalis, and its microsymbiont Rhizobium galegae was evaluated in BTX (benzene, toluene, xylene)-contaminated soils in microcosm and mesocosm scale. To measure the intrinsic tolerance of the organisms to m-toluate, a model compound representing BTX, G. orientalis and R. galegae were cultivated under increasing concentrations of m-toluate alone and in association with Pseudomonas putida pWWO, a bacterial strain able to degrade toluene-derived compounds. The test plants and rhizobia remained viable in m-toluate concentrations as high as 3000 ppm. Plant growth was inhibited in concentrations higher than 500 ppm, but restituted when plants were transferred into m-toluate-free medium. Nodulation was blocked under the influence of m-toluate, but was restored after the plants were transferred into the non-contaminated media. In the mesocosm assay the Galega plants showed good growth, nodulation and nitrogen fixation, and developed a strong rhizosphere in soils contaminated with oil or spiked with 2000 ppm m-toluate. Thus, this legume system has good potential for use on oil-contaminated sites     

Differences in growth, leaf senescence and injury, and stomatal density in birch (Betula pendula Roth.) in relation to ambient levels of ozone in Finland

The differences in growth, leaf senescence, visible ozone injuries and stomatal density between one coastal site (natural ozone) and two inland sites (natural and elevated ozone) in Finland were determined for saplings of Betula pendula clones grown under open-field conditions during two growing seasons. Responses in growth, leaf senescence, visible injuries, and stomatal density were determined in relation to cumulative ozone exposure accumulated over the thresholds of 30, 40 and 50 ppb (10(9)) during the exposure period. In addition, the effects of the different ozone exposures on ultrastructure of chloroplasts were studied. Increasing ozone exposure resulted in reduced shoot dry weight, stimulated (first year) or reduced (second year) height growth, accelerated autumn yellowing of leaves, increased stomatal density, visible symptoms and chloroplast injuries, and increased number and size of plastoglobuli. Newly expanded mature leaves in midsummer were more sensitive to ozone episodes than younger developing leaves in the early growing season. In most parameters, the best correlation was achieved with the exposure index AOT30. Ozone risk for birch is highest in the southern coastal area of Finland, where background ozone concentrations are higher than in inland sites.     

Bioaccumulation of 14C-17alpha-ethinylestradiol by the aquatic oligochaete Lumbriculus variegatus in spiked artificial sediment

A bioaccumulation study was performed with the endobenthic freshwater oligochaete Lumbriculus variegatus MULLER exposed to the radiolabelled synthetic steroid 17alpha-ethinylestradiol (14C-EE2) in a spiked artificial sediment. Concentration of total radioactivity increased constantly and almost linearly during 35 days of exposure. The accumulation factor normalised to worm lipid content and sediment TOC (AFlipid/OC) was 75 at the end of the uptake period, but a steady state was not reached. Uptake kinetics were calculated fitting the measured AFs to a kinetic rate equation for constant uptake from sediment using iterative non-linear regression analysis. After 10 days of elimination in contaminant-free sediment 50% of the accumulated total radioactivity was excreted by the worms. Extracts from L. variegatus sampled at the end of the uptake phase were analysed by thin layer chromatography (TLC). The results showed that 6% of the total radioactivity incorporated by the worms was 14C-EE2. After treatment of extracts with beta-glucuronidase the amount of 14C-EE2 increased to 84%. These results suggest that L. variegatus has the potency to accumulate high amounts of conjugated EE2. Hence, a transfer of EE2 to benthivores and subsequent secondary poisoning of predators might be possible.     

Mode of zooxanthella transmission does not affect zooxanthella diversity in acroporid corals

Two distinct modes of algal endosymbiont acquisition exist in corals, a direct transmission from the parental colony to the eggs and a larval or post-larval uptake from the environment. The former, maternal-transmission mode is expected to be a more closed system, while the latter is believed to be an open system. Here we test the hypothesis that the diversity of symbionts in closed systems is lower than that in open systems. We examine the identity and diversity of the algal endosymbionts (zooxanthellae) in 25 Montipora species sampled from Irian Jaya (Indonesia) and Magnetic Island (central Great Barrier Reef) and compare the results with those previously obtained from Acropora species, which belong to the same family. All Montipora colonies examined harbour clade C zooxanthellae, with two colonies harbouring both clade C and D zooxanthellae simultaneously. Two algal strains (named C· and D· in this study) present in Montipora have not been observed in Acropora, and may have co-evolved with Montipora. Symbiodinium C· shows approximately 5% sequence divergence from C strains observed in Acropora spp. and occurs in 76% of the colonies examined. Nevertheless, several other C strains commonly found in other corals occur in some of the Montipora colonies. Montipora species transmit their algal endosymbionts directly to the eggs, while Acropora species have to acquire zooxanthellae from the environment every generation. Contrary to our expectations, the diversity of zooxanthellae is similar for the two genera, indicating that the mode of symbiont transmission (i.e. maternal versus horizontal) does not affect symbiont diversity in acroporid corals.Communicated by M.S. Johnson, Crawley     

Oviposition by butterflies on young leaves: Investigation of leaf volatiles

Summary Various butterflies select young foliage on which to lay their eggs; volatiles emitted by young and old leaves have been compared (by sorption enrichment, followed by GC-MS) to gauge possible qualitative and quantitative differences between the two age groups. The plants investigated are cabbage (Brassica oleracea), two milkweeds (Asclepias syriaca andA. curassavica), the bitter orange (Citrus aurantium) and the lime (C. aurantiifolia). The chemical compounds identified belong to three classes, isoprenoids, fatty acid derivatives and benzenoids. Quantitative differences were found between young and old leaves, of which a few may be characteristic of young leaves only. Thirty-four single trials withDanaus plexippus exposed to volatiles from young and old leaves are recorded.