Spontaneous resettlement after drought: An Ethiopian example*

Based upon two recent periods of fieldwork among a spontaneously resettled population of cattle herders in southwestern Ethiopia, this paper is an attempt to illustrate, by a particular case, the general proposition that external aid, if it is not to be counter-productive, must meet people's needs as they themselves define them. The people in question, the Mursi, have experienced, since 1970, their worst period of drought and hunger in living memory. They have responded to this experience with resilience and inventiveness and largely without external assistance. The paper concentrates on a recent, drought induced, migration of Mursi to higher land, outside their traditional territory, and shows how the migrants are adapting to a new way of life which brings them into direct conflict with some of their most cherished cultural traditions.     

Transport of particulate matter in natural waters — modelling and in situ-measurements

The significant processes controlling the fate of particulates are convection an dispersion on one hand, and sedimentation on the other hand. Due to inteparticulated reactions, larger aggregates can be formed from smaller units thus changing the sedimentation characteristics. These phenomena are summarized in a mathematical model whereby hydrodynamic effects as well as the control mechanisms of the dissolved phase are included. A relationship was derived on the basis of energy considerations leading to the formulation of a critical sedimentation velocity of the suspensa, which determines the transport capacity of the flowing system. The sedimentation term is calculated from the above discussed transport capacity, hydro-dynamic parameters and suspending media properties. Aggregation effects are taken into account as an increase of sedimentation velocities of the particles. The equations are solved in a particular computational routine such that the horizontal distribution of suspended solids in a natural system can be describe as function of the above discussed phenomena. The model was tested with in situ-measurements. It was found that the observed processes are described satisfactorily by this model.     

WORLD PETROLEUM RESOURCE ESTIMATES AND PRODUCTION FORECASTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR GOVERNMENT POLICY

Resource estimates alone will not give advance warning of encroaching production difficulties. An analysis of the general stages in the evolution of petroleum production and discovery and of industry statistics provides an estimate of when the stage characterised by increasing production in the market economy countries outside the United States and Canada will end. The analysis indicates that the year of maximum production will be in the 1990s. Economic growth aggravates the difficulties accompanying the production decline by advancing the date of peak production and by increasing the adjustments that must be made as oil production declines. Des prévisions de ressources à elles seules ne constituent pas des signes précurseurs de difficultés croissantes de production. Une analyse des étapes générales marquant l'evolution de la découverte et de la production du pétrole ainsi que des statistiques industrielles nous permet de prévoir l'époque à laquelle prendra fin la phase de production accrue dans les pays à économie de marché en dehors des Etats-Unis et du Canada. Cette analyse révèle que l'année de production maximale se situera dans les années 90. La croissance économique accentue les difficultés qui accompagnent le déclin de la production de pétrole en avancant la date à laquelle cell-ci atteindra son plafond et en augmentant le nombre d'ajustements qui s'avèrent nécessaires au fur et à mesure qu'elle baisse. Las evaluaciones de recursos no dan por si solas un aviso anticipado de las dificultades de producción. Un análisis de las etapas principales en la evolución del descubrimiento y producción de petróleo y de las estadísticas industriales provee un estimado de cuando va a terminar la etapa caracterizada por un crecimiento de producción en los paises de economias de mercado otros que Estados Unidos y Canada. El análisis indica que el año de producción máxima se hallará en la década del 90. El crecimiento económico agrava las dificultades debidas a la declinación de la producción al adelantar la fecha de máxima producción (pico) y al aumentar los ajustes que deven hacerse cuando la producción de petróleos disminuye.     

International competitive displacement from environmental control The quantitative gains from methodological refinement

This paper demonstrates empirically the gain from adopting more general equilibrium approaches in projecting the effects on domestic output and international trade of environmental controls. The suggested models include a partial equilibrium case where all industries are treated independently, an intermediate case incorporating effects in supplying industries, and general equilibrium formulations based on alternative macroeconomic conditions. U. S. data is used to evaluate these models. Under both pollutor pays and subsidy financing schemes, moving from the simplest case to the intermediate model results in quite different industry projections. Including macroeconomic factors appears particularly important in the classical setting.