ASSESSMENT OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AN URBAN CATCHMENT1

ABSTRACT: Stationarity of rainfall statistical parameters is a fundamental assumption in hydraulic infrastructure design that may not be valid in an era of changing climate. This study develops a framework for examining the potential impacts of future increases in short duration rainfall intensity on urban infrastructure and natural ecosystems of small watersheds and demonstrates this approach for the Mission/Wagg Creek watershed in British Columbia, Canada. Nonstationarities in rainfall records are first analyzed with linear regression analysis, and the detected trends are extrapolated to build potential future rainfall scenarios. The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is used to analyze the effects of increased rainfall intensity on design peak flows and to assess future drainage infrastructure capacity according to the derived scenarios. While the framework provided herein may be modified for cases in which more complex distributions for rainfall intensity are needed and more sophisticated stormwater management models are available, linear regressions and SWMM are commonly used in practice and are applicable for the Mission/Wagg Creek watershed. Potential future impacts on stream health are assessed using methods based on equivalent total impervious area. In terms of impacts on the drainage infrastructure, the results of this study indicate that increases in short duration rainfall intensity may be expected in the future but that they would not create severe impacts in the Mission/Wagg Creek system. The equivalent levels of imperviousness, however, suggest that the impacts on stream health could be far more damaging.     

CHARACTERIZATION OF HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS TO SUPPORT PLATTE RIVER SPECIES RECOVERY EFFORTS1

ABSTRACT: Efforts are under way to recover habitat for several threatened and endangered species in and along the Platte River in central Nebraska. A proposed recovery program for these species requires a means of characterizing “wet” versus “normal” versus “dry” hydrologic conditions in order to set corresponding Platte River instream flow targets. Methods of characterizing hydrologic conditions in real time were investigated for this purpose. Initially, 10 watershed variables were identified as potentially valuable indicators of hydrologic conditions. Ultimately, six multiple linear regression equations were developed for six periods of the year using a subset of these variables expressed as frequencies of nonexceedence. The adequacy of these equations for characterizing conditions was assessed by evaluating their historic correlation to subsequent flow in the central Platte River (1947–1994). These equations explained 54 to 82 percent of variability in the observed flow exceedences in the validation datasets, depending upon the period of year evaluated. These equations will provide initial criteria for setting applicable flow targets to determine, in real time, whether water regulation projects associated with the species recovery effort can divert or store flows without conflicting with recovery objectives.     

Not seeing eye to eye: differences in supervisor and subordinate perceptions of and attributions for psychological contract breach

This study examines supervisor and subordinate perceptions of and attributions for psychological contract breach. The data suggest that supervisor and subordinate perceptions are most likely to differ on the extent to which the organization violated its obligations to provide fair pay, advancement opportunities, and a good employment relationship. In addition, the results indicate that the greater the degree of psychological contract breach reported by subordinates, the less committed they are to the organization and the lower their job performance (as rated by their supervisor). Moreover, when psychological contract breach is perceived, supervisors' and subordinates' attributions regarding the reasons for the breach are likely to differ. Specifically, the findings suggest that subordinates are more likely to attribute breach to the organization's intentional disregard for the commitments that it had made to the employee, while supervisors are more inclined to attribute breach to situations beyond the organization's direct control. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Designating Air Quality Management Areas (AQMAs) in the UK Implications for Securing UK Air Quality Objectives

Across the United Kingdom, the majority of local authoritieshave now completed their first phase of local air qualityreview and assessment work, as required under the AirQuality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and NorthernIreland (DETR, 2000a). Emerging from this first phasework is an anticipated suite of over 110 Air QualityManagement Areas (AQMAs). These areas are identifiedlocations where one or more of the national air qualityobjectives are predicted to exceed by specific target dates,and their spatial extent and shape is emerging as highlyvariable. Local authorities are guided to use a variety ofscientific tools to underpin the scientific assessments, anda consideration of uncertainty in both the tools used andsubsequent delineation of AQMAs is likely to affect theemerging management areas significantly. With subsidiarity underpinning the process of local air qualitymanagement (LAQM), local decision-making is anticipated toinfluence the outcome of the LAQM process in its entirety,with the declaration of AQMAs necessitating the preparationand implementation of air quality action plans. UKexperience of the effective management of local air quality,through the designation of AQMAs, demonstrates a valuableframework for other European countries developing mechanismsto manage air quality locally.     

Chemical Changes in Sediment Pore-Waters of an Acidic Mining Lake After Addition of Organic Substrate and Lime for Stimulating Lake Remediation

In the past five years, enclosures have beeninstalled in an acidic mining lake in Lusatia to investigate insitu remediation processes. They were treated with straw, withstraw and Carbokalk, or with Carbokalk alone, where Carbokalkis a by-product of the sugar industry (solid precipitate ofnon-sugars after lime clarification of extracted sugar beetjuice). Sediment samples were taken as cores to get informationabout the behaviour of organic and inorganic components insediment pore-water with depth. Vertical distributions of pH,soluble reactive phosphate, nitrate, ammonium, silica,aluminium, iron, manganese, calcium, magnesium, sodium,potassium, sulphate, and DOC were measured. The resultingprofiles, each consisting of 15 data points at differentdepths, were compared by cluster analysis. The similarities ofsediment cores from different treated enclosures relating toprofiles of chemical components were discussed. Increasedconcentrations of potassium and sulphate were found in pore-water after substrate treatment. The data imply dissolution ofpotassium iron sulphate hydroxide minerals (jarosite) after anincrease of pH caused by dissolution of lime and by sulphatereducing processes which were stimulated by organic substrateaddition.     

Biological Pollutants: Alien Fishes in Mountain Lakes

Many lakes in the national parks of the Canadian Rockies were stocked with alien fish species in the early to mid 20th century. Changes to Parks Canada's mandate require the original communities of these lakes to be restored. We document the changes to invertebrate communities caused by the stocking of alien fishes into three fishless alpine lakes, and describe the results of two restoration experiments, one the reintroduction of Hesperodiaptomus arcticus, a planktonic predator that had been eliminated from Snowflake Lake by stocked fish, and the other the removal of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) from Bighorn Lake. In both cases, there were great changes to the zooplankton communities, which required several years to complete, probably because of the cold water and unproductive nature of the lakes. Many of the invertebrate species extirpated by stocked alien fishes co-exist with native fish species in nearby lakes. Possible reasons are discussed.     

Potential and Shortcomings of Numerical Weather Prediction Models in Providing Meteorological Data for Urban Air Pollution Forecasting

The last decade progress in numericalweather prediction (NWP) modelling and studies of urbanatmospheric processes for providing meteorological data forurban air pollution forecasting is analysed on examples ofseveral European meteorological centres. Modern nested NWP models are utilising land-use databasesdown to 1 km resolution or finer, and are approaching thenecessary horizontal and vertical resolution suitable forcity scale. The recent scientific developments in the fieldof urban atmospheric physics and the growing availabilityof high-resolution urban surface characteristics datapromise further improvements of the capability of NWPmodels for this aim. A strategy to improve NWP data forthe urban air pollution forecasting is suggested.     

Development of Stream Water Chemistry during Spring Melt in a Northern Hardwood Forest

The role of snowmelt and subsurface hydrology in determiningthe chemistry of a small headwater stream in the TurkeyLakes Watershed (TLW) was evaluated for the spring meltperiods 1992 to 1996. Spring runoff is the dominanthydrological event at the TLW each year. Processesoccurring within the snowpack during snowmelt wereprincipally responsible for the above-ground changes inchemical fluxes relative to bulk deposition (the effect ofwinter throughfall was minimal). Large changes in chemicalfluxes occurred below ground. Organic matter decomposition,weathering, nitrification, and element cycling are some ofthe more important below-ground processes that operateduring the snow accumulation and ablation season and controlthe composition of the water ultimately appearing in thestream. Maximum stream discharge was accompanied byelevated concentrations of H⁺, NO₃ ^-, K⁺,NH₄ ⁺, DOC, Al and Mn, but reduced levels ofCa²⁺, Mg²⁺, SO₄ ^2- and SiO₂. Theconcentration-discharge relationships were consistent withwater movement through and above the forest floor duringpeak discharge, a flowpath facilitated by rapid infiltrationof meltwater and the existence of a relatively impermeablelayer in the mineral soil creating a perched water table. Averaged over the five periods of snow accumulation andablation, it was estimated that pre-melt stream flow, andwater routed through the forest floor and through the uppermineral soil contributed 9, 28 and 63%, respectively, ofthe discharge measured at the outlet of the catchment. Theforest floor contribution would be greater at peak dischargeand at higher elevations. An end-member mixing modelestimated concentrations of SO₄ ^2-, NO₃ ^-,Cl^-, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Na⁺ and Al that werecomparable to average values measured in the stream. Othervariables (NH₄ ⁺, H⁺, K⁺ and DOC) wereover-estimated implying retention mechanisms operatingoutside the model assumptions.