No-policy greenhouse gas emission scenarios: revisiting IPCC 1992

A new set of no-policy global greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios was developed using the atmospheric stabilization framework, the same modeling tool that was used to generate the IS92 emission scenarios for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Revised assumptions about population and economic growth, combined with updated information on changes in renewable energy supply, the efficiency of energy generation and other factors resulted in changes in GHG emission profiles over the next century, which led to an increase in the estimated global average temperature change as compared to the IS92 scenarios. Model results indicate that the largest increase in emissions, which led to a temperature increase of about 3.4°C by 2100 (relative to 1990), can be expected when a rapid increase in the GNP per capita levels of the non-OECD countries is combined with a low availability of solar/wind and biomass energy resources and slow energy efficiency improvements. The smallest increase in emissions and temperature by 2100 (about 2.5°C) occurred when a relatively slow increase in the GNP per capita in the non-OECD countries was combined with a high availability of renewable energy resources and rapid energy efficiency improvements.     

First-trimester maternal serum unconjugated oestriol and alpha-fetoprotein in fetal Down's syndrome

Maternal sera (MS) taken from 1396 women prior to chorionic villus sampling at 9–12 menstrual weeks were assayed for unconjugated oestriol (uE3) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). Median levels increased by 41 and 26 per cent per week respectively in normal pregnancies. There were 32 pregnancies with a chromosome abnormality. The median MS uE3 and AFP were 0.73 and 0.75 multiples of the median (MoM) respectively in the ten cases of Down's syndrome (DS) but not decreased in the other abnormalities. These results suggest that both uE3 and AFP may be useful in identifying DS in the first trimester. Additional prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings.     

Sacrococcygeal teratoma: Prenatal diagnosis with elevated alphafetoprotein and acetylcholinesterase in amniotic fluid

A sacrococcygeal teratoma was suspected by ultrasound examination at 24 weeks gestation. The amniotic fluid alphafetoprotein was markedly elevated, as was maternal serum AFP. Gel electrophoresis of amniotic fluid showed an acetylcholinesterase band. Labour began at 25 weeks gestation and the chromosomally normal male fetus was found to have a sacrococcygeal teratoma equal to three-quarters of the weight of the fetus.     

An assessment of lead absorption from soil affected by smelter emissions

The purpose of this study was to assess the oral bioavailability of lead in soil collected from a former smelter site in Sandy, Utah, USA. Sprague-Dawley rats (approximately 4 weeks of age, 5 of each sex in group) were given either soil lead or lead acetate mixed in a purified diet (AIN-93G ) at four different concentrations for 31 consecutive days. Food consumption measurements were used to compute mean daily lead exposures for the soil lead and lead acetate groups. The lead acetate treatment yielded higher concentrations of lead in the blood and bone than the soil lead treatment. Mean blood lead values ranged from below the detection limit (3 g dL^–1) to 27.25 g lead dL^–1 for the lead acetate groups at dose levels of 0.10–2.91 mg lead kg body weight^–1 and from below the detection limit to 8.8 g lead dL^–1 for the soil lead groups at doses of 0.11–3.43 mg lead kg body weight^–1. At these same doses, mean bone values ranged from 0.52 to 26.92 g lead g^–1 for the lead acetate groups and from 0.64 to 13.1 g lead g^–1 for the soil lead groups. Relative per cent bioavailability was estimated by modelling the dose-blood concentration curves for the lead acetate treatment and the dosed soil lead treatment, and then comparing doses that produce an equivalent blood lead concentration. The ratio of the doses of lead acetate and soil lead that produced the same tissue response (i.e., concentration) provided an index of relative bioavailability. For lead, the bioavailability of soil lead relative to lead acetate was 41% at a blood concentration of 6 g lead dL^–1.     

A comparative study of the costs of alternative mayfly oviposition behaviors

Oviposition behavior of insects has associated fitness costs related to the probability that females survive to oviposit. During summer 2003, we observed the oviposition behavior and compared the mortality rates of females of 17 mayfly species in one western Colorado watershed. We dissected adult females collected on terrestrial sticky traps, in drift nets submerged in streams, and in stomachs of brook trout to determine whether the mayflies had oviposited before capture, drowning, or consumption. Females oviposited by either splashing on the water surface releasing all their eggs (splashers), dropping their eggs from the air (bombers), dipping their abdomens multiple times releasing a few eggs at a time (dippers), landing on rocks and ovipositing on the undersides (landers), or floating downstream while releasing their eggs (floaters). Almost 100% of lander and 50% of dipper females had not oviposited when captured on sticky traps, increasing their vulnerability to preoviposition mortality by aerial predators compared to mayflies with other behaviors. In contrast, most females had laid their eggs before drowning or being eaten by a fish (50–90%). However, groups with oviposition behaviors most exposed to the water surface (floaters, then splashers, dippers, and landers) were more vulnerable to drowning before completing oviposition. In addition, splashers and floaters were most vulnerable to predation by brook trout before ovipositing. These data suggest that fitness costs associated with preoviposition mortality may be considerable depending on mayfly oviposition behavior. Furthermore, previously demonstrated benefits of low predation rates on eggs of lander species may be offset in part by costs to female survival. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Asymmetric sexual conflict over parental care in a biparental cichlid

Theoretical models predict that parents should adjust the amount of care both to their own and their partner’s body condition. In most biparental species, parental duties are switched repeatedly allowing for repeated mutual adjustment of the amount of care. In the mouthbrooding cichlid Eretmodus cyanostictus, terms are switched only once with females taking the first share. The timing of the shift of the clutch between mates strongly determines both partners’ brooding period and thereby their parental investment. Females signal their readiness to transfer the young several days before the male finally takes them, suggesting sexual conflict over the timing of the shift. In a lab experiment, we reduced the body condition of either the female or the male of a pair to test whether energy reserves affect the timing of the shift and whether female signalling behaviour depends on energetic state. Males with a lowered condition took the young later and incubated for a shorter period, which prolonged the incubation time of their female partners. When female condition was lowered, female and male incubation durations remained unchanged, although females signalled their readiness to shift more intensely. Our results suggest that males adjust their parental investment to own energy reserves but are unresponsive to their mate’s condition. Females appear to carry the entire costs for the male’s adjustment of care. We propose that intrinsic asymmetries in the scope for mutual adjustment of parental investment and the costs of negotiation crucially influence solutions of the conflict between sexes over care.     

Lead content of plants and soils from three abandoned smelter areas in and near Socorro,New Mexico

Two primary lead smelters and one secondary lead smelter have been active in the Socorro, New Mexico (USA) area in the last 110 years: the Billing smelter from 1883 to 1894, the Cuba Road smelter from 1881 to 1900, and Cal West from 1979 to 1984. Samples of plants and surface soil under each plant from all three sites were analysed for lead. The plants consisted of sparse grasses, cacti, creosote bush, snakeweed, mesquite and fourwing saltbush. Lead levels in the plants increased (2-440 g g^–1) as the lead in the alkaline soils (25-10000 ng g^–1) increased. However, the BAC (biological absorption coefficient), which is the ratio of lead content in the plant to the lead content in the soil, a measure of relative accumulation, decreased by one to two orders of magnitude, except for grasses and snakeweed. At background lead levels, there was little difference between lead in rootsversus foliage. At high lead levels, there was higher lead in roots versus foliage at the Billing and Cuba Road sites. The reverse was noted at Cal West. Because this is a recent operation, the higher lead in foliage may be due to foliar uptake. Plant growth at all sites appeared healthy.