Statistical matching for conservation science

The awareness of the need for robust impact evaluations in conservation is growing and statistical matching techniques are increasingly being used to assess the impacts of conservation interventions. Used appropriately matching approaches are powerful tools, but they also pose potential pitfalls. We outlined important considerations and best practice when using matching in conservation science. We identified 3 steps in a matching analysis. First, develop a clear theory of change to inform selection of treatment and controls and that accounts for real-world complexities and potential spillover effects. Second, select the appropriate covariates and matching approach. Third, assess the quality of the matching by carrying out a series of checks. The second and third steps can be repeated and should be finalized before outcomes are explored. Future conservation impact evaluations could be improved by increased planning of evaluations alongside the intervention, better integration of qualitative methods, considering spillover effects at larger spatial scales, and more publication of preanalysis plans. Implementing these improvements will require more serious engagement of conservation scientists, practitioners, and funders to mainstream robust impact evaluations into conservation. We hope this article will improve the quality of evaluations and help direct future research to continue to improve the approaches on offer.     

Science, Policy, and Stakeholders: Developing a Consensus Science Plan for Amchitka Island, Aleutians, Alaska

With the ending of the Cold War, the US Department of Energy is responsible for the remediation of radioactive waste and disposal of land no longer needed for nuclear material production or related national security missions. The task of characterizing the hazards and risks from radionuclides is necessary for assuring the protection of health of humans and the environment. This is a particularly daunting task for those sites that had underground testing of nuclear weapons, where the radioactive contamination is currently inaccessible. Herein we report on the development of a Science Plan to characterize the physical and biological marine environment around Amchitka Island in the Aleutian chain of Alaska, where three underground nuclear tests were conducted (1965–1971). Information on the ecology, geology, and current radionuclide levels in biota, water, and sediment is necessary for evaluating possible current contamination and to serve as a baseline for developing a plan to ensure human and ecosystem health in perpetuity. Other information required includes identifying the location of the salt water/fresh water interface where migration to the ocean might occur in the future and determining groundwater recharge balances, as well as assessing other physical/geological features of Amchitka near the test sites. The Science Plan is needed to address the confusing and conflicting information available to the public about radionuclide risks from underground nuclear blasts in the late 1960s and early 1970s, as well as the potential for volcanic or seismic activity to disrupt shot cavities or accelerate migration of radionuclides into the sea. Developing a Science Plan involved agreement among regulators and other stakeholders, assignment of the task to the Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation, and development of a consensus Science Plan that dealt with contentious scientific issues. Involvement of the regulators (State of Alaska), resource trustees (U S Fish and Wildlife Service), representatives of the Aleut and Pribilof Island communities, and other stakeholders was essential for plan development and approval, although this created tensions because of the different objectives of each group. The complicated process of developing a Science Plan involved iterations and interactions with multiple agencies and organizations, scientists in several disciplines, regulators, and the participation of Aleut people in their home communities, as well as the general public. The importance of including all parties in all phases of the development of the Science Plan was critical to its acceptance by a broad range of regulators, agencies, resource trustees, Aleutian/Pribilof communities, and other stakeholders.     

The Ythan Project: A Case Study on Improving Catchment Management through Community Involvement

Increased participation in resource management decisions by a wide range of stakeholders has been widely advocated, and has recently been formally incorporated into the European Water Framework Directive. However, achieving such participation has generally proved to be problematical. In response to locally perceived needs, a project was set up in the Ythan catchment in northeast Scotland, to undertake catchment management actions with increased public involvement. This paper outlines the methods used to increase public participation in such actions, and some preliminary assessments of the effectiveness of these. The experience of the project and the lessons learnt, including some of the difficulties of ensuring fully representative stakeholder involvement, are discussed in relation to published criteria for public participation in resource management.     

Coral calcification: Sources of error in radioisotope techniques

Isotopic exchange occurs between coral skeleton and ⁴⁵Ca⁺⁺ and H¹⁴CO ₃ ^- in seawater. Exchange of ¹⁴C onto skeletons is more rapid than exchange of ⁴⁵Ca⁺⁺. Exchange of ¹⁴C from skeletons to seawater takes place more slowly than exchange of ⁴⁵Ca⁺⁺ to seawater. When living coral is incubated in the dark with radioisotopes for 1 h, the tissues contain considerably more radioactivity than is associated with the skeleton. The tissue radioactivity reflects permeation of tissues and coelenteron by radioactive compounds from the incubation seawater. Addition of alkalis to cardioactive seawater results in a radioactive precipitate, part of which becomes associated with any coral skeleton present, and part of which forms on the wall of the containing vessel. Strong alkali removes biologically-deposited radioisotope from coral skeletons. Deposition, of ¹⁴C from H¹⁴CO ₃ ^- in skeletons of living coral incubated in the dark is greater than in dead coral. The reverse situation occurs with ⁴⁵Ca⁺⁺.     

PREDICTING BASE FLOW USING HYDROGEOLOGIC PARAMETERS1

ABSTRACT: A method is presented for predicting base flow using easily measured, or estimated, hydrogeologic parameters. A mathematical model based upon the theory of subsurface flow to parallel drains is applied to a small watershed in Oklahoma. An example of model application is presented for a five-year period of record from this small watershed. Three years of data are used to calibrate the model, and two years of data are used for model validation. Hydrographs of observed and predicted base flow are presented for the five-year period of record. We concluded from this limited application of the model, on a small watershed, that the modeling techniques discussed herein were valid and should be tested for longer time periods on a larger watershed to determine their general applicability.     

Gas-exchange studies with the staghorn coral Acropora acuminata and its zooxanthellae

Compensation point and light-saturation values were determined from oxygen-exchange experiments with branches and isolated zooxanthellae from the staghorn coral Acropora acuminata. Branches and dense suspensions of zooxanthellae showed similar lightresponse curves for oxygen exchange, with light saturation at about 23 Klux (300 W. m^-2) and compensation point occurring between 4 and 6 Klux (60–80 W. m^-2). Zooxanthellae appear to be mutually shaded in dense suspensions and coral tissues. The effects of metabolic inhibitors, including photosynthetic and respiratory inhibitiors, on oxygen exchange in coral branches and isolated zooxanthellae are presented. Bubbles formed on coral tissues and on several macroalgae under conditions of high illumination contained large amounts of oxygen, suggesting that a high oxygen tension may occur in coral tissues during the day. Photorespiration and dissolved organic carbon production by suspensions of zooxanthellae are discussed in relation to a high oxygen tension which probably occurs in coral tissues during daylight.     

Persistent stimulation of CO2 assimilation and stomatal conductance by summer ozone fumigation in Norway spruce

CO(2) assimilation rate, stomatal conductance and chlorophyll content of current and previous years' needles of Norway spruce were measured in May 1988, 205 days after the cessation of ozone fumigation during the summer of 1987. Rates of assimilation were consistently higher for both needle year age classes for ozone fumigated trees in comparison to control trees, although only statistically significant for part of the day for current year's needles. A 26% and 48% stimulation, overall, in mean daily rates of assimilation for current and previous years' needles of ozone fumigated trees was observed. This was due to an enhanced apparent quantum yield and light saturated rate of assimilation of ozone fumigated trees. The temperature response regression of assimilation versus temperature was also greater, such that at any given temperature, assimilation was higher for ozone treated trees than control trees. Stomatal conductance was greater for ozone fumigated trees than the controls, but this was only marginally statistically significant. Moreover, there was a consistent increase in chlorophyll content in both year classes in ozone-treated trees. These results are discussed in relation to a possible long term effect of ozone fumigation upon the processes of conifer winter hardening and spring de-hardening.     

Effects of geothermal effluents on aquatic ecosystems

The use of geothermal energy for electrical generation and a variety of other purposes requires the handling and disposal of large volumes of geothermal fluids. These fluids contain constituents such as dissolved ammonia, hydrogen sulfide gas, and trace elements. Facilities in the United States are not expected to routinely discharge large volumes of toxic geothermal fluids. However, chronic effects on aquatic ecosystems are possible at concentrations where acute toxicity would be neither expected nor observed. Also, some trace elements may accumulate to hazardous levels in ecosystems, even when released at nontoxic concentrations.     

The dilemma of a low rate of chromosomal mosaicism found in fetal blood sampling

We report a case in which mosaicism of trisomy 13 was detected in 4/10 cells (40 per cent) in amniotic fluid cell cultures, followed by a low rate of mosaicism (1/160 cells) detected in a fetal blood sample. This finding presents a dilemma both for the genetic counsellor and for the parents in determining whether or not to terminate the pregnancy.