Exploring the risk information gap. Research into information supply and information demand of different parties concerned

The Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), a governmental research institute, provides information on environmental and health risks. The primary contractors’ information demands are served well. But the risk information available from the RIVM does not always correspond to the desires and requirements of other parties concerned. It became apparent that – to a certain extent – an information gap exists, arising from a difference between the institute’s information supply and the information demand of the different parties concerned.This explorative study focuses on the information demand and supply with regard to three different risks: flooding by rivers, air pollution and food related risks.For each risk, the information supply was determined by listing the available risk information in RIVM reports. In a second step, the information demand of the five different parties, as well as different channels of communication, were examined. The parties’ perceptions and requirements concerning risk information were identified in interviews and focus group discussions.The public, which in general appeared to be quite unfamiliar with the institute and its information sources, preferred risk information tailored to its personal circumstances. Policy makers mainly appreciated personal contacts in order to keep up to date on risk topics, whereas NGOs and fellow researchers judged the institute’s website and reports to be more relevant. Press releases appeared to add little to satisfying the information demand of the media.     

Land Cover Changes as a Result of Environmental Restrictions on Nitrate Leaching in Dairy Farming

Nitrate leaching forms an important environmental problem because it causes pollution of groundwater and surface water, and adds to already problematic eutrophication. This study analyses the impact of reductions in nitrate leaching on land cover decisions of dairy farms, of which the activities make an important contribution to nitrate leaching. As the level of nitrate leaching depends on groundwater depth as well as on the supply of nitrogen, spatial variation in groundwater levels will cause a spatial variation in land cover under restrictions on nitrate leaching. A non-linear partial optimisation model for the economic and ecological aspects of the problem were used to show how land cover and dairy farms' financial balances change when nitrate losses are reduced. The model is spatially explicit, and describes nitrate leakage and yields of maize and grass as a function of groundwater depth, including the effects of various grazing systems. The model analyses the decisions of a risk neutral agent who minimises costs under the following constraints: (i) production, feed requirements and mass balances for fodder; (ii) constraints for nitrate leaching. Economic costs are attributed to increased costs of fodder and processing of manure when nitrate restrictions are tightened. An important result of the study is the variation in compliance costs and land cover for maize and grass production brought about by spatial variation in groundwater depth. While the effects are negligible for some shallow groundwater classes, it is extremely difficult in other classes – if not impossible – to obtain the EU standard of maximum admissible losses of 34 kg N ha^–1 at low costs. The study shows an important reduction in land cover by maize.     

Landscape Correlates of Breeding Bird Richness Across the United States Mid-Atlantic Region

Using a new set of landscape indicator data generated by the U.S.EPA, and a comprehensive breeding bird database from the National Breeding Bird Survey, we evaluated associations between breeding bird richness and landscape characteristics across the entire mid-Atlantic region of the United States. We evaluated how these relationships varied among different groupings (guilds) of birds based on functional, structural, and compositional aspects of individual species demographics. Forest edge was by far the most important landscape attribute affecting the richness of the lumped specialist and generalist guilds; specialist species richness was negatively associated with forest edge and generalist richness was positively associated with forest edge. Landscape variables (indicators) explained a greater proportion of specialist species richness than the generalist guild (46% and 31%, respectively). The lower value in generalists may reflect finer-scale distributions of open habitat that go undetected by the Landsat satellite, open habitats created by roads (the areas from which breeding bird data are obtained), and the lumping of a wide variety of species into the generalist category. A further breakdown of species into 16 guilds showed considerable variation in the response of breeding birds to landscape conditions; forest obligate species had the strongest association with landscape indicators measured in this study (55% of the total variation explained) and forest generalists and open ground nesters the lowest (17% of the total variation explained). The variable response of guild species richness to landscape pattern suggests that one must consider species' demographics when assessing the consequences of landscape change on breeding birds.     

Land Use Changes in Regional Economic Theory

Land use and land cover changes are a major source of environmental degradation and therefore a serious issue in sustainable development studies and in the integrated assessment of environmental problems. In an attempt to understand part of the complexity of land use change we here aim to explore the ways in which economists deals with the land use issue. We argue that space is one of the forgotten items in economics. Economists often seem to ignore high-resolution spatial dynamics either because they are not considered as an important feature of the problem or out of habit. It seems as though there is a trade-off between spatial resolution and human behaviour in current applications. Certain types of models are capable of capturing the spatial complexity of urban and regional areas, for instance, by using cellular automata. Other types of land use models clearly have shortcomings where it concerns spatial detail. Dynamic modelling approaches do not guarantee a high spatial resolution.We propose to give more attention to agent based modelling as this type of modelling provides a specific connection between processes on micro level and macro-level spatial structures.     

The Role of Abatement Costs in GHG Permit Allocations: A Global Stabilization Scenario Analysis

Our objective is to propose permit allocation schemes that lead to a fair distribution of the net abatement cost among regions in a global greenhouse gas (GHG) stabilization scenario. We use a detailed technology-based energy model, World-MARKAL, to determine efficient abatement decisions, and to calculate the regional gross abatement costs (before permit allocation and trading). The net abatement costs are then calculated and used for different permit allocation schemes.     

Optimal Expansion Strategy for a Sewer System under Uncertainty

Because of fast urban sprawl, land use competition, and the gap in available funds and needed funds, municipal decision makers and planners are looking for more cost-effective and sustainable ways to improve their sewer infrastructure systems. The dominant approaches have turned to planning the sanitary sewer systems within a regional context, while the decentralized and on-site/cluster wastewater systems have not overcome the application barriers. But regionalization policy confers uncertainties and risks upon cities while planning for future events. Following the philosophy of smart growth, this paper presents several optimal expansion schemes for a fast-growing city in the US/Mexico borderlands—the city of Pharr in Texas under uncertainty. The waste stream generated in Pharr is divided into three distinct sewer sheds within the city limit, including south region, central region, and north region. The options available include routing the wastewater to a neighboring municipality (i.e., McAllen) for treatment and reuse, expanding the existing wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) in the south sewer shed, and constructing a new WWTP in the north sewer shed. Traditional deterministic least-cost optimization applied in the first stage can provide a cost-effective and technology-based decision without respect to associated uncertainties system wide. As the model is primarily driven by the fees charged for wastewater transfer, sensitivity analysis was emphasized by the inclusion of varying flat-rate fees for adjustable transfer schemes before contracting process that may support the assessment of fiscal benefits to all parties involved. Yet uncertainties might arise from wastewater generation, wastewater reuse, and cost increase in constructing and operating the new wastewater treatment plant simultaneously. When dealing with multiple sources of uncertainty, the grey mixed integer programming (GIP) model, formulated in the second stage, can further allow all sources of uncertainties to propagate throughout the optimization context, simultaneously leading to determine a wealth of optimal decisions within a reasonable range. Both models ran for three 5-year periods beginning in 2005 and ending in 2020. The dynamic outputs of this analysis reflect the systematic concerns about integrative uncertainties within this decision analysis, which enable decision makers and stakeholders to make all-inclusive decisions for sanitary sewer system expansion in an economically growing region.     

Modelling Tracer Dispersion from Landfills

Several wind tunnel experiments of tracer dispersion from reduced-scale landfill models are presented in this paper. Different experimental set-ups, hot-wire anemometry, particle image velocimetry and tracer concentration measurements were used for the characterisation of flow and dispersion phenomena nearby the models. The main aim of these experiments is to build an extensive experimental data set useful for model validation purposes. To demonstrate the potentiality of the experimental data set, a validation exercise on several mathematical models was performed by means of a statistical technique. The experiments highlighted an increase in pollutant ground level concentrations immediately downwind from the landfill because of induced turbulence and mean flow deflection. This phenomenon turns out to be predominant for the dispersion process. Tests with a different set-up showed an important dependence of the dispersion phenomena from the landfill height and highlighted how complex orographic conditions downwind of the landfill do not affect significantly the dispersion behaviour. Validation exercises were useful for model calibration, improving code reliability, as well as evaluating performances. The Van Ulden model proved to give the most encouraging results.     

A Model for Landscape Planning Under Complex Spatial Conditions

We present a new mathematical programming framework that is adaptable to a variety of spatially explicit landscape problems in environmental investment, conservation, and land-use planning, transport planning, and agriculture. As part of capturing spatial interdependencies, the framework considers decision variables at two levels, finely spaced grid cells and landholdings. We applied the framework to an environmental investment problem using objective functions representing biodiversity and carbon sequestration. We also tested the model to optimize the path of a road through part of the landscape. Using the Nambucca case study in eastern Australia, we applied a hybrid greedy randomised adaptive search procedure (GRASP) to find solutions to the model.     

Extension of the EUROS Integrated Air Quality Model to Fine Particulate Matter by Coupling to CACM/MADRID 2

The European Operational Smog (EUROS) integrated air quality modelling system has been extended to model fine particulate matter (PM). From an extended literature study, the Caltech Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism and the Model of Aerosol Dynamics, Reaction, Ionisation and Dissolution were selected and recently coupled to EUROS. Currently, modelling of mass and chemical composition of aerosols in two size fractions (PM_2.5 and PM_10–2.5) is possible. The chemical composition is expressed in terms of seven components: ammonium, nitrate, sulphate, elementary carbon, primary inorganic compounds, primary organic compounds and secondary organic compounds. Calculated PM₁₀ concentrations and chemical composition are presented for two summer months of the year 2003 (1 July to 31 August).     

Development and Parameterization of a Rain- and Fire-driven Model for Exploring Elephant Effects in African Savannas

We describe the development and parameterization of a grid-based model of African savanna vegetation processes. The model was developed with the objective of exploring elephant effects on the diversity of savanna species and structure, and in this formulation concentrates on the relative cover of grass and woody plants, the vertical structure of the woody plant community, and the distribution of these over space. Grid cells are linked by seed dispersal and fire, and environmental variability is included in the form of stochastic rainfall and fire events. The model was parameterized from an extensive review of the African savanna literature; when available, parameter values varied widely. The most plausible set of parameters produced long-term coexistence between woody plants and grass, with the tree–grass balance being more sensitive to changes in parameters influencing demographic processes and drought incidence and response, while less sensitive to fire regime. There was considerable diversity in the woody structure of savanna systems within the range of uncertainty in tree growth rate parameters. Thus, given the paucity of height growth data regarding woody plant species in southern African savannas, managers of natural areas should be cognizant of different tree species growth and damage response attributes when considering whether to act on perceived elephant threats to vegetation.