Parameter fitting in dynamic models

We consider the numerical approaches for the least squares estimation of the parameter vector p in the initial value problem y′ = g(t, y, p), y(t₀) = y₀(p) when observations are available on some or all components of the vector y(t). Special attention is paid to the development of techniques which, although not global, are less sensitive to initial parameter estimates than the standard approach employing the sensitivity equations. Experience indicates that interactive approaches can be very valuable when good starting parameter approximations are unavailable. We describe the main features of our interactive parameter fitting package PARFIT. This package contains standard techniques employing the sensitivity equations as well as special algorithms designed to improve poor parameter estimates. These special algorithms have been selected and developed with user interaction in mind. We describe in detail one special approach designed for the case when observations are not available on all state variables. An example (using computer generated observations) is presented to illustrate this approach. Finally, the power of an interactive approach is demonstrated with two examples involving attempts to model physically observed phenomena.     

折板波形流人工填料污水处理方法的实验研究

污水的土地处理是不同于活性污泥法的一种新型且高效的处理方法,利用土壤-微生物-植物系统的作用实现污水的无害化和资源化[1],该实验模拟了土地处理系统,研究了在固定化微生物的吸附分解作用下、在投加海绵铁填料和在不同的水力负荷(分别是5 cm/d、8 cm/d、12 cm/d)情况下,折板波形流反应器对生活污水的处理效果....     

整车行驶可靠性与室内道路模拟试验技术方法研究

军用整车的行驶可靠性一般通过道路试验或试验场试验进行考核,道路试验虽能有效反映行驶的实际工况,但存在试验周期长、试验条件无法控制及保密无法保证的问题。试验场试验可有效进行行驶可靠性考核,但军用整车试验场建设成本非常高。道路模拟试验技术是一种先进的实验室模拟路面振动的整车试验技术,本文以某军用整车为试验对象,对其进行外场路面道路行驶试验,采集外场行驶试验时整车关键部位的振动、应变响应信号,对响应信号进行数据裁剪以获得该车的路谱数据。利用路谱数据再在室内道路模拟系统对该样车进行激励,结果表明道路模拟试验可很好复现整车行驶试验时损伤效果,可有效考核样车行驶可靠性要求,缩短试验周期。     

Linking biophysical models and public preferences for ecosystem service assessments: a case study for the Southern Rocky Mountains

Through extensive research, ecosystem services have been mapped using both survey-based and biophysical approaches, but comparative mapping of public values and those quantified using models has been lacking. In this paper, we mapped hot and cold spots for perceived and modeled ecosystem services by synthesizing results from a social-values mapping study of residents living near the Pike–San Isabel National Forest (PSI), located in the Southern Rocky Mountains, with corresponding biophysically modeled ecosystem services. Social-value maps for the PSI were developed using the Social Values for Ecosystem Services tool, providing statistically modeled continuous value surfaces for 12 value types, including aesthetic, biodiversity, and life-sustaining values. Biophysically modeled maps of carbon sequestration and storage, scenic viewsheds, sediment regulation, and water yield were generated using the Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services tool. Hotspots for both perceived and modeled services were disproportionately located within the PSI’s wilderness areas. Additionally, we used regression analysis to evaluate spatial relationships between perceived biodiversity and cultural ecosystem services and corresponding biophysical model outputs. Our goal was to determine whether publicly valued locations for aesthetic, biodiversity, and life-sustaining values relate meaningfully to results from corresponding biophysical ecosystem service models. We found weak relationships between perceived and biophysically modeled services, indicating that public perception of ecosystem service provisioning regions is limited. We believe that biophysical and social approaches to ecosystem service mapping can serve as methodological complements that can advance ecosystem services-based resource management, benefitting resource managers by showing potential locations of synergy or conflict between areas supplying ecosystem services and those valued by the public.     

The Chattanooga School Children Study: Effects of Community Exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide

Elementary schools in four areas of Greater Chattanooga were selected for a study of the effects of community exposure to nitrogen dioxide. One area, in close proximity to a large TNT plant, had high NO₂ exposure, another had relatively high suspended particulate exposure, and two areas served as “clean” controls. The similarity of the economic levels of the High-NO₂ and Control areas and the moderately lower economic level of the High-Particulate area were documented. Pollutant concentrations for NO₂ gas, suspended nitrates and sulfates, total suspended particulates, and soiling index were measured at stations located within the study areas. Ventilatory performance of second-grade school children in the High-NO₂ exposure area was significantly lower than the performance of children in the Control areas. The data suggested that ventilatory performance was adversely affected only when an NO₂ threshold was exceeded but that above this threshold no further impairment of performance could be detected.     

Comparison of LLW Disposal Facilities at Major Department of Energy Sites

Near surface disposal facility design and management are examined and compared using a systems approach that defines facility performance as a function of three components (or subsystems): the disposal facility design (cover systems and bottom liners); the properties of the waste (waste composition, waste form and waste package); and the site‐specific environmental features (climate, geology, and hydrology). We report an evaluation of five DOE near surface disposal facility case studies, selected to provide a “representative” sample that included disposal sites with a range of waste and environmental characteristics across the DOE. The facilities selected were the Savannah River E‐Area Engineered Trenches, Hanford Integrated Disposal Facility, Idaho Radioactive Waste Management Complex, Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility, and Nevada National Security Site Area 5. ©2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Correct prenatal diagnosis of a hurler fetus where amniotic fluid cell cultures were of maternal origin

Contamination of amniotic fluid cell cultures by maternal cells can be expected to lead to misdiagnosis of fetal genotype in 0·1 to 0·5/100 cultures, when assays are carried out directly on cultured cells. Chemical analysis of the cell-free amniotic fluid supernatant may overcome this source of error and has the added advantages of speed and independence from amniotic cell culture failure. We describe a pregnancy at risk for Hurler's disease where amniotic cells cultured at amniocentesis had a female karyotype and an α-iduronidase activity towards both phenyl and 4-methylumbelliferyl substrates at the lower end of the normal range, suggesting a heterozygous fetus. An affected fetus was predicted, however, because of a high concentration of dermatan sulphate in the amniotic fluid. The discrepancy between these findings was shown to be due to maternal cell contamination of amniotic fluid cell cultures by the birth of a male infant with Hurler's disease.     

Hydrocarbons in Sand Crabs (Emeritaanaloga) from Southern California (U.S.A.)

$\text{Emerita}$$\text{analoga}$ (Crustacea:Hippidae) from three southern California (U.S.A.) beaches contained 0.9 to 24.1 μg/g dry wt saturated hydrocarbons, and 3.6 to 21.4 μg/g dry wt unsaturated hydrocarbons. Major constituents were (in wt. % total): n-alkanes (13.1%), heneicosapentaene plus heneicosahexaene (1.0%), squalene (5.1%), and unidentified polyenes (7.8%). Crabs from beaches exposed to small boat traffic and natural oil seepage were slightly and severely tainted, respectively, with petroleum hydrocarbons. Animals from San Nicolas Island (85 km offshore) contained only biogenic compounds.     

Contextualizing leaders' interpretations of proactive followership

Although proactive followership behavior is often viewed as instrumental to group success, leaders do not always respond favorably to the actions of overly eager followers. Guided by a constructivist perspective, we investigated how interpretations of followership differ across the settings in which acts of leadership and followership emerge. In thematically analyzing data from semi‐structured interviews with leaders of high‐performing teams, we depict how the construal of follower behaviors relates to various contextual factors underscoring leader–follower interactions. Prototypical characteristics were described in relation to ideal followership (i.e., active independent thought, ability to process self‐related information accurately, collective orientation, and relational transparency). However, proactive followership behaviors were subject to the situational and relational demands that were salient during leader–follower interactions. Notably, the presence of third‐party observers, the demands of the task, stage in the decision‐making process, suitability of the targeted issue, and relational dynamics influenced which follower behaviors were viewed as appropriate from the leader's perspective. These findings provide insight into when leaders are more likely to endorse proactive followership, suggesting that proactive followership requires an awareness of how to calibrate one's actions in accordance with prevailing circumstances. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.