Ecological boundary detection using Bayesian areal wombling

The study of ecological boundaries and their dynamics is of fundamental importance to much of ecology, biogeography, and evolution. Over the past two decades, boundary analysis (of which wombling is a subfield) has received considerable research attention, resulting in multiple approaches for the quantification of ecological boundaries. Nonetheless, few methods have been developed that can simultaneously (1) analyze spatially homogenized data sets (i.e., areal data in the form of polygons rather than point-reference data); (2) account for spatial structure in these data and uncertainty associated with them; and (3) objectively assign probabilities to boundaries once detected. Here we describe the application of a Bayesian hierarchical framework for boundary detection developed in public health, which addresses these issues but which has seen limited application in ecology. As examples, we analyze simulated spread data and the historic pattern of spread of an invasive species, the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae), using county-level summaries of the year of first reported infestation and several covariates potentially important to influencing the observed spread dynamics. Bayesian areal wombling is a promising approach for analyzing ecological boundaries and dynamics related to changes in the distributions of native and invasive species.     

Seasonal and spatial changes in the larval fish fauna within a large temperate Australian estuary

A total of 66814 fish larvae, representing 37 families and 74 species, were collected in samples taken monthly between January 1986 and April 1987 from 13 sites located at frequent intervals throughout the large Swan Estuary in south-western Australia. The Gobiidae was the most abundant family, comprising 88.2% of the total number of larvae, followed by the Clupeidae (3.4%), Engraulididae (2.9%) and Blenniidae (1.0%). The most abundant species were Pseudogobius olorum (53.3%), Arenigobius bifrenatus (31.2%) and Engraulis australis (2.9%). Abundance of fish larvae in the lower, middle and upper regions of the estuary each reached a maximum between mid-spring and early summer, 2 to 4 mo before the attainment of maximum temperatures. Larvae of species such as Nematalosa vlaminghi and Apogon rueppellii were collected only between November and February, whereas those of others such as P. olorum, E. australis and Leptatherina wallacei were present over many months. The times and locations of capture of larvae have been related to the distribution and breeding periods of the adults of these species. The mean monthly number of species was far greater in the lower than upper estuary (14.7 vs 2.7), whereas the reverse was true for mean monthly concentration (42 vs 197 larvae per 100 m³). Classification, using the abundance of each of the 74 species recorded at the different sites, showed that the composition of the larval fish fauna in the lower, middle and upper estuary differed markedly from each other. Most larvae caught in the lower estuary belonged to marine species, whereas those in the upper estuary almost exclusively represented species that spawn within the estuary. The fact that the larvae of the 59 species of marine teleosts recorded during this study were restricted mainly to the lower estuary, and yet contributed only 6.2% to the total numbers for the whole estuary, helps to account for the relatively high species diversity in this region. The lack of penetration of many of these larvae beyond the first 12.5 km of the estuary presumably reflects the weak tidal effect in the wide basins of the middle estuary and saline regions of the tributary rivers. The larvae of the 13 teleosts that typically spawn within the estuary contributed 93.8% to the total numbers of larvae. Most of these estuarine-spawned larvae belong to teleosts that deposit demersal eggs and/or exhibit parental care (egg-guarding and oral and pouch-brooding), characteristics which would maximize their chances of retention within the estuary.     

Patterns and ecological predictors of age-related performance in female North American barn swallows,Hirundo rustica erythrogaster

Life history theory describes the optimization of important trade-offs within an individual’s lifetime and predicts that an individual’s reproductive performance (RP) will improve up until a point of senescence. Despite abundant evidence for this pattern, relatively few studies consider the mechanisms associated with age-related improvements in RP. In this study, we aimed to describe patterns of age-related RP (seasonal fledgling production) in female North American barn swallows (Hirundo rustica erythrogaster) using a longitudinal data set to test multiple hypotheses about the social, morphological, and ecological factors underlying this prominent life history pattern. To address these objectives, we used generalized linear mixed models in a three-step series of analyses in which we assessed (1) patterns of female age-related RP; (2) the influence of age on changes in social, morphological, and ecological factors; and (3) whether the changes in RP were concomitant with changes in these factors. We found that (1) females showed patterns of age-related reproduction, in which performance increased in the first 2 years of breeding and decreased thereafter, (2) female tail streamer length increased and the extent of breast coloration increased then decreased significantly with age, and (3) changes in morphological traits did not covary with changes in reproductive performance over time. Our within-individual results highlight the importance of considering explicit links between morphology and reproductive performance that are not easily captured by population-level analyses.     

The Impact of Scrubber Sludge on Ground Water Quality at an Abandoned Mine Site

A sulfate-rich flue gas desulfurization scrubber sludge was used as a substitute backfill material in reclamation of an abandoned coal strip mine. The site was surrounded by monitor wells and the material was characterized for leaching behavior using open column experiments. A drain was placed directly beneath the 45 000 ton fill to enable sampling before dilution or attenuation. The column studies indicated that the scrubber sludge would adsorb manganese, iron, aluminium, cobalt, nickel, thallium and zinc contaminants from the water. Changes in pH appear inadequate to explain the removal by precipitation. The groundwater cleaning phenomenon has been confirmed on a field scale by the drain samples. Boron and molybdenum leach from the fly ash was used to fix the scrubber sludge and serve as marker elements enabling calibration of the dispersivity in computer models of the groundwater system at the site. The leachate front appears to be diluted by a factor of 8 : 1 within the first 15 meters. Since boron and molybdenum release are associated only with the first flush, environmental impacts will be minimal. Columns appear to create a time compression effect on the duration of leaching phenomenon. The effect for this site appears to be at least 5 : 1. The columns were effective in predicting which elements would leach or adsorb in the field and in predicting the actual source concentrations. Other shake tests such as the TCLP and the ASTM shake test were found to be less effective at predicting which elements would leach and were not helpful in predicting field concentrations.     

Inferred effects of cloud deposition on forest floor nutrient cycling and microbial properties along a short elevation gradient

Cloud water deposition often increases with elevation, and it is widely accepted that this cloud water increases acid loading to upland forest ecosystems. A study was undertaken in south-eastern Quebec to determine if a 250 m elevation gradient (i.e. 420-665 m), along a uniform sugar-maple stand on the slope of Mount Orford, corresponded to a pH gradient in the forest floor and to predictable changes in soil nutrient availability and microbial properties. Precipitation data from a nearby study, and a photographic survey, provided presumptive evidence that this elevation gradient corresponded to a strong gradient in cloud water deposition. Forest floor temperature did not differ significantly across elevations. Forest floor moisture content was significantly higher, whereas pH and exchangeable Ca and Mg were significantly lower, at the higher elevations. Average seasonal net nitrification rates, determined by long-term laboratory incubations, did not differ significantly across elevations, whereas average seasonal net ammonification rates were significantly higher at higher elevations. Basal respiration rates and microbial biomass did not differ significantly across elevations, but metabolic quotient was significantly higher at higher elevations indicating possible environmental stress on forest floor microbial communities due to cloud water deposition. Anaerobic N mineralisation rates were significantly higher at higher elevations suggesting that N-limited microbial communities frequently exposed to cloud cover can be important short-term sinks for atmospheric N, thereby contributing to increase the active-N fraction of forest floors. We conclude that, where no significant changes in vegetation or temperature occur, elevation gradients can still be used to understand the spatial variability of nutrient cycles and microbial properties.     

EVALUATION OF HYDROLOGIC BENEFITS OF INFILTRATION BASED URBAN STORM WATER MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: As watersheds are urbanized, their surfaces are made less pervious and more channelized, which reduces infiltration and speeds up the removal of excess runoff. Traditional storm water management seeks to remove runoff as quickly as possible, gathering excess runoff in detention basins for peak reduction where necessary. In contrast, more recently developed “low impact” alternatives manage rainfall where it falls, through a combination of enhancing infiltration properties of pervious areas and rerouting impervious runoff across pervious areas to allow an opportunity for infiltration. In this paper, we investigate the potential for reducing the hydrologic impacts of urbanization by using infiltration based, low impact storm water management. We describe a group of preliminary experiments using relatively simple engineering tools to compare three basic scenarios of development: an undeveloped landscape; a fully developed landscape using traditional, high impact storm water management; and a fully developed landscape using infiltration based, low impact design. Based on these experiments, it appears that by manipulating the layout of urbanized landscapes, it is possible to reduce impacts on hydrology relative to traditional, fully connected storm water systems. However, the amount of reduction in impact is sensitive to both rainfall event size and soil texture, with greatest reductions being possible for small, relatively frequent rainfall events and more pervious soil textures. Thus, low impact techniques appear to provide a valuable tool for reducing runoff for the events that see the greatest relative increases from urbanization: those generated by the small, relatively frequent rainfall events that are small enough to produce little or no runoff from pervious surfaces, but produce runoff from impervious areas. However, it is clear that there still needs to be measures in place for flood management for larger, more intense, and relatively rarer storm events, which are capable of producing significant runoff even for undeveloped basins.     

Integrating Climate Change into Habitat Conservation Plans Under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Habitat Conservation Plans (HCPs) under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) are an important mechanism for the acquisition of land and the management of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. HCPs have become a vital means of protecting endangered and threatened species and their habitats throughout the United States, particularly on private land. The scientific consensus that climate is changing and that these changes will impact the viability of species has not been incorporated into the conservation strategies of recent HCPs, rendering plans vulnerable biologically. In this paper we review the regulatory context for incorporating climate change into HCPs and analyze the extent to which climate change is linked to management actions in a subset of large HCPs. We conclude that most current plans do not incorporate climate change into conservation actions, and so we provide recommendations for integrating climate change into the process of HCP development and implementation. These recommendations are distilled from the published literature as well as the practice of conservation planning and are structured to the specific needs of HCP development and implementation. We offer nine recommendations for integrating climate change into the HCP process: (1) identify species at-risk from climate change, (2) explore new strategies for reserve design, (3) increase emphasis on corridors, linkages, and connectivity, (4) develop anticipatory adaptation measures, (5) manage for diversity, (6) consider assisted migration, (7) include climate change in scenarios of water management, (8) develop future-oriented management actions, and (9) increase linkages between the conservation strategy and adaptive management/monitoring programs.     

The Accuracy of Mortality Reporting in Displaced Persons Camps During the Post-emergency Phase

For humanitarian organisations, accurate data are essential to identify emerging health problems and determine programme needs. We visited 45 post-emergency phase displaced persons camps and collected three months' mortality data which we compared with organisations' routine mortality reports. Organisations reported 612 deaths and we identified 741 deaths, for a mortality-reporting ratio, defined as the number of organisation-reported deaths divided by the number of investigator-identified deaths, of 83 per cent. For the majority of camps which under-reported deaths, mortality reporting ratios were significantly higher for women than men, and for camps with central mortality registers rather than those without. In the few camps which over-reported deaths, these occurred primarily among children younger than five years of age, probably due to the inclusion of abortions and stillbirths. Despite the overall under-reporting of deaths by humanitarian organisations, the existing health information systems appear to estimate mortality rates adequately in these post-emergency camps. However, organisations should improve the precision and completeness with which they report the characteristics of deaths in order to provide valuable data to target their programmes at the most vulnerable people.     

Blood dioxin biomonitoring to assess local residents' exposure from a large urban remediation project

Background

A total of 265 000 m³ of dioxin contaminated soil and sediments from past industrial activity was treated on site in an urban setting in Sydney, Australia. To respond to local community concerns about potential dioxin exposure from fugitive emissions a human biomonitoring study was undertaken.

Objective

To determine whether local residents were exposed to significant amounts of dioxin from the remediation process.Methods: Blood samples were collected from local residents around the site and a representative metropolitan control group. They were pooled within age and sex strata and the change in dioxin concentrations over the remediation period and a summary of the mid point and post remediation dioxin concentrations were compared between groups. Information on dietary intake was collected to look for possible confounding.

Results

The mean dioxin Toxic Equivalent concentrations (TeQ) decreased among both the local resident and control groups over the remediation period by 1.9 and 2.1 pg gm⁻¹ lipid respectively. Modelled blood concentrations adjusting for age and sex did not detect a significant difference between groups for changes in either TeQ or 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (2,3,7,8 TCDD). The summary measure approach did however demonstrate that the 2,3,7,8 TCDD concentrations among the local resident group was approximately 0.7 pg g⁻¹ lipid higher compared to the control group post remediation. There were no significant changes in dietary intake sources of dioxin.

Conclusion

Biomonitoring demonstrated that local residents were not exposed to significant quantities of dioxin. Large scale remediation of dioxin contaminated land can be safely undertaken in an urban setting.     

Evaluation of alternative PCB clean-up strategies using an individual-based population model of mink

Population models can be used to place observed toxic effects into an assessment of the impacts on population-level endpoints, which are generally considered to provide greater ecological insight and relevance. We used an individual-based model of mink to evaluate the population-level effects of exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and the impact that different remediation strategies had on mink population endpoints (population size and extinction risk). Our simulations indicated that the initial population size had a strong impact on mink population dynamics. In addition, mink populations were extremely responsive to clean-up scenarios that were initiated soon after the contamination event. In fact, the rate of PCB clean-up did not have as strong a positive effect on mink as did the initiation of clean-up (start time). We show that population-level approaches can be used to understand adverse effects of contamination and to also explore the potential benefits of various remediation strategies.