Evaluation of Short-to-Medium Range Streamflow Forecasts Obtained Using an Enhanced Version of SRM1

Harshburger, Brian J., Karen S. Humes, Von P. Walden, Brandon C. Moore, Troy R. Blandford, and Albert Rango, 2010. Evaluation of Short-to-Medium Range Streamflow Forecasts Obtained Using an Enhanced Version of SRM. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):603-617. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00437.x Abstract: As demand for water continues to escalate in the western United States, so does the need for accurate streamflow forecasts. Here, we describe a methodology for generating short-to-medium range (1 to 15 days) streamflow forecasts using an enhanced version of the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM), snow-covered area data derived from MODIS products, data from Snow Telemetry stations, and meteorological forecasts. The methodology was tested on three mid-elevation, snowmelt-dominated basins ranging in size from 1,600 to 3,500 km². To optimize the model performance and aid in its operational implementation, two enhancements have been made to SRM: (1) the use of an antecedent temperature index method to track snowpack cold content, and (2) the use of both maximum and minimum critical temperatures to partition precipitation into rain, snow, or a mixture of rain and snow. The comparison of retrospective model simulations with observed streamflow shows that the enhancements significantly improve the model performance. Streamflow forecasts generated using the enhanced version of the model compare well with the observed streamflow for the earlier leadtimes; forecast performance diminishes with leadtime due to errors in the meteorological forecasts. The three basins modeled in this research are typical of many mid-elevation basins throughout the American West, thus there is potential for this methodology to be applied successfully to other mountainous basins.     

The influence of aridity and fire on holocene prairie communities in the eastern Prairie Peninsula

The role of climate and fire in the development, maintenance, and species composition of prairie in the eastern axis of the tallgrass Prairie Peninsula intrigued early North American ecologists. However, evaluation of the long-standing hypotheses about the region's environmental history has been hampered by the scarcity of paleorecords. We conducted multiproxy analyses on early and middle Holocene sediments from two Illinois, USA, lakes to assess long-term climatic, vegetational, and fire variability in the region. Sediment mineral composition, carbonate delta18O, ostracode assemblages, and diatom assemblages were integrated to infer fluctuations in moisture availability. Pollen and charcoal delta13C were used to reconstruct vegetation composition, and charcoal influx was used to reconstruct fire. Results indicate that fire-sensitive trees (e.g., Ulmus, Ostrya, Fraxinus, and Acer saccharum) declined and prairie taxa expanded with increased aridity from 10,000 yr BP to 8500 yr BP. Between approximately 8500 yr BP and approximately 6200 yr BP, aridity declined, and prairie coexisted with fire-sensitive and fire-tolerant (e.g., Quercus and Carya) trees. After approximately 6200 yr BP, prairie taxa became dominant, although aridity was not more severe than it was around 8500 yr BP. Along with aridity, fire appears to have played an important role in the establishment and maintenance of prairie communities in the eastern Prairie Peninsula, consistent with the speculations of the early ecologists. Comparison of our data with results from elsewhere in the North American midcontinent indicates that spatial heterogeneity is a characteristic feature of climatic and vegetational variations on millennial time scales.     

Update: Percentage of young persons with a driver's license continues to drop

In two previous studies, we have shown that in several countries, including the United States, the percentage of young persons with a driver's license has recently decreased substantially. In this update, we extend the analysis for the United States--originally performed for 1983 and 2008-through 2010 by using driver-license and general-population data from the Federal Highway Administration and the U.S. Census Bureau. The results indicate that the general trend continues. For example, the percentages of persons 19 years of age with a driver's license in 1983, 2008, and 2010 were 87.3, 75.5, and 69.5, respectively.     

Processing and analysis of roadway runoff micro (< 20 μm) particles

This study was performed to compare paper and sieving filtration methods for processing micro particles (< 20 μm) in roadway runoff for water quality evaluation. The consequence of a lack of reliable particle processing on particle number, particle concentration and particulate elemental composition, as well as their influence on particle mass and pollutant load calculations, is discussed. Results show that the paper filtering method can affect the measurement of particle size distributions of highway runoff samples. Contrary to common practice, it is not always correct to assume that the number and concentration of particles < 38 μm is the same as the number and concentration of particles < 20 μm. Processed samples for micro particles were most similar to unprocessed samples when nylon sieves were used. Samples filtered by paper deviated significantly from unprocessed samples. These deviations can cause inaccuracies up to 90 percent, in particle count and concentration, TSS calculations, elemental mass composition, and particle and elemental mass loading.     

Body-pillar vision obstructions and lane-change crashes

INTRODUCTION: This exploratory study investigated the relationship between vision obstructions from body pillars and lane-change crashes. METHODS: The vision obstructions were quantified by measuring, from the driver's perspective, the horizontal angular sizes and locations of the driver-side A-, B-, and C-pillars. The sample consisted of 21 vehicle models, including 13 passenger cars, 6 SUVs, 1 minivan, and 1 pickup truck. To control for driver differences, going-straight crashes were used for comparison, with the dependent variable being the ratio of lane-change crashes to going-straight crashes. The analysis used North Carolina crash data. RESULTS: The results of a multiple regression indicate that the relative frequency of lane-change crashes tended to increase with both wider A-pillars and with A-pillars located farther away from straight ahead. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The finding supports the hypothesis that visibility obstructions due to A-pillars have safety implications.     

Optimal strategies for adaptive curve lighting

PROBLEM: Conventional low beams headlamps do not provide sufficient illumination for nighttime visibility on curves. METHOD: This analytical study evaluated the advantages and disadvantages of several curve-lighting strategies that involve moving one or both low beams by various amounts. Two curve radii were examined for both curve directions, using representative tungsten-halogen and high-intensity discharge low-beam patterns. The dependent variable was the maximum distance of 3-lux illumination (combined from both lamps) at a plane 0.25 m above the roadway for seven lateral positions. RESULTS: For short-radius, left and right curves, moving both lamps in parallel should substantially increase the visibility of objects in one's lane of travel, in several additional lanes of travel to the left and right, and off the road. DISCUSSION: Because of the lateral trade-offs of advantages and disadvantages for large-radius curves, additional research is needed to better understand the desirable approach for these types of curves. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Moving both lamps in parallel into the curve is recommended for small-radius curves.     

Batch reactor kinetic studies on the reductive dechlorination of chlorinated ethylenes by tetrakis-(4-sulfonatophenyl)porphyrin cobalt

Tetrakis-(4-sulfonatophenyl)porphyrin cobalt was identified as a highly-active reductive dechlorination catalyst for chlorinated ethylenes. Through batch reactor kinetic studies, degradation of chlorinated ethylenes proceeded in a step-wise fashion with the sequential replacement of Cl by H. For perchloroethylene (PCE) and trichloroethylene (TCE), the dechlorination products were quantified and the C₂ mass was accounted for. Degradation of the chlorinated ethylenes was found to be first-order in substrate. Dechlorination trials with increasing catalyst concentration showed a linearly increasing pseudo first-order rate constant which yielded rate laws for PCE and TCE degradation that are first-order in catalyst. The dechlorination activity of this catalyst was compared to that of another water-soluble cobalt porphyrin under the same reaction conditions and found to be comparable for PCE and TCE.     

Optimum swimming pathways of fish spawning migrations in rivers

Fishes that swim upstream in rivers to spawn must navigate complex fluvial velocity fields to arrive at their ultimate locations. One hypothesis with substantial implications is that fish traverse pathways that minimize their energy expenditure during migration. Here we present the methodological and theoretical developments necessary to test this and similar hypotheses. First, a cost function is derived for upstream migration that relates work done by a fish to swimming drag. The energetic cost scales with the cube of a fish's relative velocity integrated along its path. By normalizing to the energy requirements of holding a position in the slowest waters at the path's origin, a cost function is derived that depends only on the physical environment and not on specifics of individual fish. Then, as an example, we demonstrate the analysis of a migration pathway of a telemetrically tracked pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) in the Missouri River (USA). The actual pathway cost is lower than 10(5) random paths through the surveyed reach and is consistent with the optimization hypothesis. The implication--subject to more extensive validation--is that reproductive success in managed rivers could be increased through manipulation of reservoir releases or channel morphology to increase abundance of lower-cost migration pathways.