Strahlenbelastung

Forty test subjects who, either during or after the reactor accident of Chernobyl (26th April 1986), stayed at a building site at Shlobin 150 km away, were examined for spontaneously occurring as well as mitomycin C-induced Sister Chromatid Exchanges (SCE). The building site staff, who underwent a whole-body radionuclide count upon their return to Austria (June through September 1986), were used for the cytogenetic tests. The demonstration of the SCE was made from whole-blood cultures by the fluorescence/Giemse technique. At last 20 Metaphases of the 2nd mitotic cycle were evaluated per person. The radiation doses of the test subjects were calculated by adding the external exposure determined on the building site, the estimated thyroid dose through I-131, and the measured incorporation of Cs-134 and Cs-137. The subjects were divided into two groups for statistical analysis: One was a more exposed group (proven stay at Shlobin between 26th April and 31st May 1986, mostly working in the open air) and the other a less exposed group for comparison (staying at Shlobin from 1st Juni 1986 and working mainly indoors). Results. A variance analysis according toKruskal andWalis showed an only partially significant increase of spontaneous SCE in lymphocytes of the higher exposed group (m=7,7 exposed group, m=7,0 control group). Mitomycin C-induced SCE were significantly reduced in the exposed group (m=31,6 exposed group, m=39,3 control group).     

Transport of particulate matter in natural waters — modelling and in situ-measurements

The significant processes controlling the fate of particulates are convection an dispersion on one hand, and sedimentation on the other hand. Due to inteparticulated reactions, larger aggregates can be formed from smaller units thus changing the sedimentation characteristics. These phenomena are summarized in a mathematical model whereby hydrodynamic effects as well as the control mechanisms of the dissolved phase are included. A relationship was derived on the basis of energy considerations leading to the formulation of a critical sedimentation velocity of the suspensa, which determines the transport capacity of the flowing system. The sedimentation term is calculated from the above discussed transport capacity, hydro-dynamic parameters and suspending media properties. Aggregation effects are taken into account as an increase of sedimentation velocities of the particles. The equations are solved in a particular computational routine such that the horizontal distribution of suspended solids in a natural system can be describe as function of the above discussed phenomena. The model was tested with in situ-measurements. It was found that the observed processes are described satisfactorily by this model.     

WORLD PETROLEUM RESOURCE ESTIMATES AND PRODUCTION FORECASTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR GOVERNMENT POLICY

Resource estimates alone will not give advance warning of encroaching production difficulties. An analysis of the general stages in the evolution of petroleum production and discovery and of industry statistics provides an estimate of when the stage characterised by increasing production in the market economy countries outside the United States and Canada will end. The analysis indicates that the year of maximum production will be in the 1990s. Economic growth aggravates the difficulties accompanying the production decline by advancing the date of peak production and by increasing the adjustments that must be made as oil production declines. Des prévisions de ressources à elles seules ne constituent pas des signes précurseurs de difficultés croissantes de production. Une analyse des étapes générales marquant l'evolution de la découverte et de la production du pétrole ainsi que des statistiques industrielles nous permet de prévoir l'époque à laquelle prendra fin la phase de production accrue dans les pays à économie de marché en dehors des Etats-Unis et du Canada. Cette analyse révèle que l'année de production maximale se situera dans les années 90. La croissance économique accentue les difficultés qui accompagnent le déclin de la production de pétrole en avancant la date à laquelle cell-ci atteindra son plafond et en augmentant le nombre d'ajustements qui s'avèrent nécessaires au fur et à mesure qu'elle baisse. Las evaluaciones de recursos no dan por si solas un aviso anticipado de las dificultades de producción. Un análisis de las etapas principales en la evolución del descubrimiento y producción de petróleo y de las estadísticas industriales provee un estimado de cuando va a terminar la etapa caracterizada por un crecimiento de producción en los paises de economias de mercado otros que Estados Unidos y Canada. El análisis indica que el año de producción máxima se hallará en la década del 90. El crecimiento económico agrava las dificultades debidas a la declinación de la producción al adelantar la fecha de máxima producción (pico) y al aumentar los ajustes que deven hacerse cuando la producción de petróleos disminuye.     

International competitive displacement from environmental control The quantitative gains from methodological refinement

This paper demonstrates empirically the gain from adopting more general equilibrium approaches in projecting the effects on domestic output and international trade of environmental controls. The suggested models include a partial equilibrium case where all industries are treated independently, an intermediate case incorporating effects in supplying industries, and general equilibrium formulations based on alternative macroeconomic conditions. U. S. data is used to evaluate these models. Under both pollutor pays and subsidy financing schemes, moving from the simplest case to the intermediate model results in quite different industry projections. Including macroeconomic factors appears particularly important in the classical setting.     

Intertemporal and intergenerational pareto efficiency: A comment

In a recent issue of this Journal, Sandler and Smith developed an analysis from which they concluded that discounting is Pareto inefficient in an intertemporal context. This comment questions the validity of that conclusion and demonstrates the essential role played by the discount rate in achieving intertemporal Pareto efficiency within a market economy.     

Permanent post-disaster housing in honduras: aspects of vulnerability to future disasters

To some degree it is unfair to evaluate a post-disaster housing program as to its effectiveness in decreasing vulnerability and preventing future disasters. As Burton states, "With rare exceptions, administrators and techniques have been trained to cope with disaster rather than to prevent it" [reference (2), p.197]. These were certainly not goals articulated by the agency responsible for constructing housing after Fifi. However, the authors feel that failure to evaluate specific projects by persons knowledgeable of the projects functioning, will only forestall the shift which Cuny calls for, "… from disaster response to disaster mitigation and prevention" [reference (4), p.123). In doing this we hope to add some specific case study data to the growing literature on disaster mitigation and prevention. Disaster vulnerability in Honduras is overwhelmingly related to flooding. More crucial than the materials and construction of housing is the issue of siting. If appropriately sited, houses made of bajarique, wood, or concrete block are able to withstand the heavy rains associated with a hurricane. Regarding the siting of the projects, the Honduras Project clearly has one positive and one negative accomplishment in the cases of Santa Rica and Flores, respectively. San Jose is less clear but is certainly a much safer site than those formerly occupied by the residents, in that there is no danger of flooding. The present site was not flooded during Fifi nor did it experience mudslides. However, the future is not so clear regarding the latter. Within the village proper a large amount of vegetation has been added which will tend to stabilise the soil on the steeper slopes. The streets, however, are seriously eroded and probably can not be maintained for vehicle usage, which does not pose a serious problem to the residents as none possess automobiles or trucks. One large gully bisects the village and receives run-off from the adjacent hills. It has been expanding, which would suggest that the slopes above the village could prove problematic in case of a Fifi-sized storm. Flores is located on a very poor site in reference to prevention and mitigation. It is located in a portion of the Sula Valley which is prone to flooding and, as mentioned before, was inundated by over 2m of water during hurricane Fifi. No prevention techniques were possible by NAEA/HEA and the houses were built on earthen mounds barely adequate to keep water out during the rainy season. The nearby dike which could possibly provide protection is non-functional due to poor maintainance. Given a storm of Fifi's magnitude, or possibly smaller, this site will again be flooded. Santa Rica is clearly well sited concerning flooding: it did not experience flooding during Fifi and is not flood prone. However, houses did experience some wall damage due to earthquakes following and associated with the Guatemalan quake of 1976. Due to the size and nature of the latter much "re-adjustment" occurred in the neighbouring fault system; however, damage to the houses was all superficial. We feel the residents were vocal about their concern due to the severity of the Guatemalan disaster and their lack of experience with concrete block houses. That the two sites (particularly Flores and partially San Jose) are vulnerable to future disasters cannot be considered solely the fault of an outside agency without local knowledge and understanding. In the engineering report issued during the construction it was explicitly stated that in Flores, "Future flooding remains a danger," [reference (6), p.49]. The future residents of Flores had gained access to the land from the National Agrarian Institute and were anxious to receive assistance in building homes. In fact, CARE, which had previously given these people tin roofing for houses, was threatening to take it back since the people had not yet started building. NAEA/HEA were responding to people in a rather desperate situation. But, on the other hand, they were responding to people who had been promised (not given) land by an agency of the Honduran national government which would be cognizant of the potential flooding at this site. Likewise, in San Jose, where mudslides and erosion remain a threat, the land was provided by a local government agency, the municipality. Although our goal in this discussion has not been to establish blame, we feel it imperative to mention the sequence of events that resulted in the questionable siting of Flores and San Jose. It is very easy and often accurate to place blame on outsiders who lack sophistication and knowledge about such matters. In this case local input did not result in post-disaster planning that is actually precautionary. This, we feel, illustrates the extreme complexity of cross-cultural aid, especially in the post-disaster period. It also points to the need for precautionary planning with reference to permanent post-disaster reconstruction.     

Water and soil pollution by Spent lubricating oils

This paper shows that spent lubricating oils from automobile engines generate carboxylic acids on environmental exposure. Samples of exposed oils, isolated from polluted river water and shore muds obtained from various locations, showed a direct proportionality between carboxylic acid content and time of exposure. Carboxylic acids were isolated by solvent extraction and studied by infrared spectroscopy.