A review of models for estimating terrestrial ecological receptor exposure to chemical contaminants

In instances where empirical measurements are not practicable, ecological risk assessments may rely on site-specific exposure models for estimating uptake of chemical contaminants. This paper presents, based on a review of the literature, a compilation of relatively simple quantitative models that can be combined to produce site- and species-specific first-order estimates of uptake of chemicals from abiotic media. These models have proved useful in providing order-of-magnitude estimates for screening and sample program design purposes. This paper intended as both a practical guide for choosing models to estimate terrestrial wildlife exposures and as a step toward development of a more comprehensive and standard approach to exposure assessment in terrestrial ecological receptors.     

Leakage and Comparative Advantage Implications of Agricultural Participation in Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation

The world is moving toward efforts to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions. Reduction efforts may involve the agricultural sector through options such as planting of trees, altering crop and livestock management, and increasing production of biofuels. However, such options can be competitive with domestic food production. In a free trade arena, reduced domestic food production could stimulate increased production and exports in other countries, which are not pursuing net emission reductions. As a consequence, emission reduction efforts in implementing countries may be offset by production increases stimulated in other countries. We examine the competitive effects of agriculturally related emission reduction actions on agricultural production and international trade. In doing this, we employ the assumption that U.S. emission reduction caused cost increases will also occur in other reducing countries. We consider emission reduction: 1) unilaterally by the U.S., 2) by all Kyoto Protocol Annex B countries, and 3) globally. The results, which are only suggestive of the types of effects that would be observed due to the simplifying cost assumptions, indicate compliance causes supply cutbacks in regulated countries and increases in non-regulated countries. The study results show that producers in regulating countries are likely to benefit and consumers lose due to commodity price increases. Seniority of Authorship is shared among the first three authors.     

Trends in organochlorine and mercury levels in Gannet eggs

Levels of DDE, HEOD, PCBs and mercury were measured in Gannet eggs from several colonies around Britain during 1971-1987. At two colonies (Ailsa Craig and Bass Rock) sampled throughout this period, organochlorine levels declined between the early 1970s and 1983, and then increased again. The trends at other colonies, sampled over shorter periods, were generally consistent with those at Ailsa Craig and Bass Rock. Trends in mercury levels were more variable, and increases were observed at four colonies and declines at two. Some shell-thinning occurred in association with DDE contamination. However, levels of this chemical were too low to affect breeding success in the years concerned. The same was probably true of the other chemicals.     

Elevated atmospheric CO2 and drought effects on leaf gas exchange properties of barley

Atmospheric CO₂ concentration (C_a) is rising, predicted to cause global warming, and alter precipitation patterns. During 1994, spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L. cv. Alexis) was grown in a strip-split-plot experimental design to determine the effects that the main plot C_a treatments [A: Ambient at 370 μmol (CO₂) mol⁻¹; E: Enriched with free-air CO₂ enrichment (FACE) at ∼550 μmol (CO₂) mol⁻¹] had on several gas exchange properties of fully expanded sunlit primary leaves. The interacting strip-split-plot irrigation treatments were Dry or Wet [50% (D) or 100% (W) replacement of potential evapotranspiration] at ample nitrogen (261 kg N ha⁻¹) and phosphorous (29 kg P ha⁻¹) fertility. Elevated C_a facilitated drought avoidance by reducing stomatal conductance (g_s) by 34% that conserved water and enabled stomata to remain open for a longer period into a drought. This resulted in a 28% reduction in drought-induced midafternoon depression in net assimilation rate (A). Elevated C_a increased A by 37% under Dry and 23% under Wet. Any reduction in A under Wet conditions occurred because of nonstomatal limitations, whereas under Dry it occurred because of stomatal limitations. Elevated C_a increased the diurnal integral of A (A′) that resulted in an increase in the seasonal-long integral of A′ (A″) for barley leaves by 12% (P = 0.14) under both Dry and Wet - 650, 730, 905 and 1020 ± 65 g (C) m⁻² y⁻¹ for AD, ED, AW and EW treatments, respectively. Elevated C_a increased season-long average dry weight (DW_S; crown, shoots) by 14% (P = 0.02), whereas deficit irrigation reduced DW_S by 7% (P = 0.06), although these values may have been affected by a short but severe pea aphid [Acyrthosiphon pisum (Harris)] infestation. Hence, an elevated-C_a-based improvement in gas exchange properties enhanced growth of a barley crop.     

Quantifying ecological thresholds from response surfaces

Ecological thresholds are abrupt changes of ecological state. While an ecological threshold is a widely accepted concept, most empirical methods detect them in time or across geographic space. Although useful, these approaches do not quantify the direct drivers of threshold response. Causal understanding of thresholds detected empirically requires their investigation in a multi-factor domain containing the direct drivers (often referred to as state space). Here, we present an approach to quantify thresholds from response surfaces modeled empirically in state space. We present two indices of shape attributes measured from response surfaces. The response surfaces are built using a regression method in state space. The indices are threshold strength (T) and diagonality (D). We use 48 simulated response surfaces of different shapes to test the efficacy of the indices in 3D. Our results show that T is sensitive to the steepness of the transition from one state to the next, with various forms of abrupt, centralized thresholds yielding the highest values among the simulated surfaces. D represents the orientation of the response surface or the simultaneous influence of more than one predictor in eliciting the response gradient. Strongly diagonal surfaces have the most diagonal surface area demonstrated by sharply undulating diagonal surfaces. Given that the success of T and D requires a regression method to accurately capture any shape of complex data structure, we also test the accuracy of empirical regression methods known to be tractable with complex data. We test classification and regression trees (CART), Random Forest, and non-parametric multiplicative regression (NPMR) for binary and continuous responses. We use the 48 simulated response surfaces to test the methods, and we find that prediction accuracy depends on both the T and D of the simulated data for each method. We choose the most accurate method among those we test for capturing any shape of response surface from real data, NPMR. Finally, we use NPMR to build response surfaces and quantify T and D from real ecological data sets. We demonstrate how measuring threshold strength and diagonality from multi-factor response surfaces can advance ecology.     

Restoring Ecological Integrity in Highly Regulated Rivers: The Role of Baseline Data and Analytical References

The goal of restoring ecological integrity in rivers is frequently accompanied by an assumption that a comparative reference reach can be identified to represent minimally impaired conditions. However, in many regulated rivers, no credible historical, morphological or process-based reference reach exists. Resilient restoration designs should instead be framed around naturalization, using multiple analytical references derived from empirically-calibrated field- and model-based techniques to develop an integrated ecological reference condition. This requires baseline data which are rarely collected despite increasing evidence for systematic deficiencies in restoration practice. We illustrate the utility of baseline data collection in restoration planning for the highly fragmented and regulated lower Merced River, California, USA. The restoration design was developed using various baseline data surveys, monitoring, and modeling within an adaptive management framework. Baseline data assisted in transforming conceptual models of ecosystem function into specific restoration challenges, defining analytical references of the expected relationships among ecological parameters required for restoration, and specifying performance criteria for post-project monitoring and evaluation. In this way the study is an example of process-based morphological restoration designed to prompt recovery of ecosystem processes and resilience. For the Merced River, we illustrate that project-specific baseline data collection is a necessary precursor in developing performance-based restoration designs and addressing scale-related uncertainties, such as whether periodic gravel augmentation will sustain bed recovery and whether piecemeal efforts will improve ecological integrity. Given the numerous impediments to full, historical, restoration in many river systems, it seems apparent that projects of naturalization are a critical step in reducing the deleterious impacts of fragmented rivers worldwide.     

The unrecognized danger of a new transportation mechanism of injury--pedicabs

Objective

Pedicabs are a new and controversial transportation innovation for tourists in congested areas in several U.S. cities. Scant literature on this trauma mechanism exists. The purpose of this study is to identify the incidence, demographics, morbidity, mortality, and potential for injury prevention of pedicab incidents amongst major trauma admissions at an urban, academic Level I Trauma Center.

Patients & Methods

Researchers conducted a retrospective review of the Trauma Registry from 2000 to 2009. All patients identified as being injured in a pedicab incident were reviewed. Demographics, diagnoses, toxicology, treatments, and injury severity scale (ISS) were collected. Outcomes included mortality, ICU, and hospital length of stay (LOS), discharge disposition, and hospital charges. A photographic survey of 50 local pedicabs was examined for the presence and use of safety equipment.

Results

During the period of January 2000 to July 2009 there were 15 major trauma victims from identified pedicab incidents. Falling from the pedicab was the mechanism of injury in 14 of 15 cases. There were two fatalities in victims following severe traumatic brain injury. Traumatic brain injury, skull fracture, or loss of consciousness was seen in 11/15 victims. Ethanol ingestion was detected in blood tests of 10 of the 14 adult victims. Median charges of hospitalization due to a pedicab related injury was US$29,956 ± 77,482. A photographic survey of 50 local pedicabs reveals very limited use of safety belts by passengers despite existing city ordinances.

Conclusions

Major trauma victims of pedicab incidents in the United States suffer significant injuries and death. Most cases occurred in passengers falling from the pedicab at night after alcohol ingestion. There is an opportunity for implementation of strategies toward improved injury prevention with this new form of transport.     

Development and validation of rapid assessment indices of condition for coastal tidal wetlands in southern New England, USA

Desertification, land degradation in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid regions, is a global environmental problem. With respect to increasing importance of desertification and its complexity, the necessity of attention to the optimal de-desertification alternatives is essential. Therefore, this work presents an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method to objectively select the optimal de-desertification alternatives based on the results of interviews with experts in Khezr Abad region, central Iran as the case study. This model was used in Yazd Khezr Abad region to evaluate the efficiency in presentation of better alternatives related to personal and environmental situations. Obtained results indicate that the criterion "proportion and adaptation to the environment" with the weighted average of 33.6% is the most important criterion from experts viewpoints. While prevention alternatives of land usage unsuitable of reveres and conversion with 22.88% mean weight and vegetation cover development and reclamation with 21.9% mean weight are recognized ordinarily as the most important de-desertification alternatives in region. Finally, sensitivity analysis is performed in detail by varying the objective factor decision weight, the priority weight of subjective factors, and the gain factors. After the fulfillment of sensitivity analysis and determination of the most sensitive criteria and alternatives, the former classification and ranking of alternatives does not change so much, and it was observed that unsuitable land use alternative with the preference degree of 22.7% was still in the first order of priority. The final priority of livestock grazing control alternative was replaced with the alternative of modification of ground water harvesting.     

Woodlot management and livelihoods in a tropical conservation landscape

In biodiversity hotspots, there is often tension between human needs and conservation, exacerbated when protected areas prevent access to natural resources. Forest-dependent people may compensate for exclusion by managing unprotected forests or cultivating planted woodlots. Outside Bwindi Impenetrable National Park in Uganda, household wood product needs are high and population growth puts pressure on the environment. We investigated the role of privately and collectively managed woodlots in provisioning wood products and supporting local livelihoods. We found that households relied heavily on woodlots for daily needs and as resources during time of need. We also found that locally relevant social institutions, called stretcher groups, played a role in the management of woodlots, providing shared community resources. Privately and collectively owned woodlots support local livelihoods and wood product needs in the region. Long-term management of forests in Uganda should consider the value of woodlots and the mechanisms required to support them.