Application to the Port of Sines of a new tool for risk assessment in port navigation

This paper describes a first approach on the risk assessment in port navigation using GUIOMAR, an integrated system for port and coastal engineering modelling developed at the National Civil Engineering Laboratory (LNEC), Portugal, using a GIS software environment. A set of automatic procedures was designed to include a new methodology based on the amplitude of the wave-induced vertical movement of a ship along its trajectory. In this methodology, the risk in port navigation is assessed on the basis of a combination of the probability of exceedance of a pre-set threshold for the ship??s vertical movements and its consequences. To test the new procedures, a set of sea wave records obtained at the Sines wave-buoy from 1988 to 2002 was transferred into Sines Port using two numerical models of sea wave propagation and deformation (SWAN and DREAMS), included in the GUIOMAR system. The numerical model WAMIT was used for estimating the wave-induced ship??s vertical movements inside the port. By applying the new procedures, automatic generation of risk maps was carried out for navigation in the vicinity of the West breakwater of the Port of Sines. The recent developments contribute towards a more versatile and efficient GUIOMAR system, which results in a more adequate tool to support decision-making processes in port and coastal management.     

Synchronized breeding events in sympatric marine invertebrates: role of behavior and fine temporal windows in maintaining reproductive isolation

While breeding synchrony among conspecifics is increasingly well understood with regards to the reproductive success of vertebrate and invertebrate taxa, the occurrence of simultaneous multispecies breeding events remains intriguing. The fairly recent discovery of mass annual spawnings in reef corals has provided a first glimpse at putative strategies of reproductive isolation during such events. However, the mechanisms and advantages of same-day heterospecific breeding are still poorly understood and have not yet been investigated in non-coral taxa with different life history strategies. In an effort to bridge this gap, we investigated spawning periodicity and synchrony among 26 sympatric species of free-spawning, capsule-laying, and brood-protecting macroinvertebrates belonging to six different phyla. Twenty-four of these species released gametes or larvae between early March and late April. We analyzed the events over fine temporal scales to test the hypothesis that breeding activities were not random in time or relative to each other. We found that the two main reproductive pulses followed a lunar periodicity and that consistent species- and gender-specific modulations in the timing of spawning occurred during same-day episodes involving up to six free-spawning species. Mass spawning accounts from the literature were reviewed and compared. This work suggests that many species participate in synchronous heterospecific spawning events either because they respond to the same environmental cues or rely on cross-cueing and that reproductive isolation is favored by species-specific circadian patterns, spawning behaviors and cross-gender signaling.     

A safety analysis of roundabouts and turbo roundabouts based on Petri nets

Objective: In this work, a roundabout and a turbo roundabout model are compared and previous modeling with continuous Petri nets and safety are analyzed through indicators of complexity. Petri nets are a graphic and mathematical representation that allow a faithful modeling of urban systems.

Method: The methodology has been designed for the transformation of a real system to small subgraphs that represent the maneuvers in roundabouts, approximated as roads and lanes of incorporation. Places within the roundabout have been located and defined as continuous places from their influence and visibility toward adjacent conditions. The transitions have been modeled by time and inhibitory arcs, which represent priorities and areas where drivers must pay attention. The created networks represent a faithful model of vehicle flow trajectories in the roundabouts.

Results: The methodology is applied to the same real road intersection. The case study is a recent transformation from roundabout to turbo roundabout. The roundabout network complexity is corroborated by a greater number of entries and exits that lead to each roundabout place (reflected in the maneuvers that can be performed) and a greater number of inhibiting arcs. In most of the turbo roundabout places, the driver’s only option is reduced to occupying next place. The possibility of choosing between several places supposes a greater trajectory intersection and an increased time for decision making. The only situation where the complexity is the same between both systems is when a vehicle accesses the inner lane of the roundabout from the left lane on a single-lane road. The main maneuvers causing accidents have been modeled and their solution in a turbo roundabout is presented.

Conclusions: The reduced complexity of the turbo roundabout is due to the strict limitations in lane changes, turning turbo roundabouts into a safer model: A lower number of possible movements that can be performed by drivers and a smaller number of trajectories with collision risk. Petri nets have proven to be perfectly applicable to the representation of traffic circular systems (such as roundabouts and turbo roundabouts) and to measure the complexity and security of the system.     

Can variations in the spatial distribution at sea and isotopic niche width be associated with consistency in the isotopic niche of a pelagic seabird species?

This study tested for fluctuations on short-term consistency (within about 1 month) in the isotopic niche of a pelagic seabird species. Short-term consistency in the isotopic niche was assessed using a wide-ranging apex predator, the Cory’s shearwaters Calonectris diomedea, along a 3-year study (2010–2012), during both the pre-laying and chick-rearing periods, with markedly inter- and intra-annual differences in the foraging spatial distribution at sea and isotopic niche width. We used individual movement data and stable isotope data, analysed using recent metrics based in a Bayesian framework, of 69 adults breeding on a small neritic island in the North Atlantic (39°24′N, 009°30′W). As expected, our results confirm that isotopic niche expansion could arise via increased variation in spatial distribution at sea among individuals. Results suggest fluctuations on short-term consistency in the isotopic niche of Cory’s shearwaters related to their different foraging patterns among periods and, ultimately, to presumably temporal changes in the availability and predictability of food resources. Short-term consistency in the isotopic niche was higher and persistent during periods when the population showed an intermediate isotopic niche width and absent when isotopic niche was either smaller or larger during the study period. These results suggest that consistency in the isotopic niche is an important characteristic of this population during the breeding period that may fluctuate depending on resources availability and should be important to understand the dynamics of foraging ecology of pelagic seabirds in general.     

Do racial differences exist in second-trimester maternal hCG levels? a study of 23 369 patients

In Down syndrome screening by maternal serum human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) determination at 15, 16, 17, and 18 weeks of gestation, we prospectively examined 23 369 sera from white (21 549), North African (970), black African (525), and Asian (325) patients. When expressed as multiples of the median (MOM), no difference was observed between white, North African, and black African patients. However, higher serum hCG concentrations were noted in Asians, for whom we therefore recommend correction of hCG values before calculation of the risk of Down syndrome.