Net emissions of CH4 and CO2 in Alaska: implications for the region's greenhouse gas budget.

We used a biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to study the net methane (CH4) fluxes between Alaskan ecosystems and the atmosphere. We estimated that the current net emissions of CH4 (emissions minus consumption) from Alaskan soils are approximately 3 Tg CH4/yr. Wet tundra ecosystems are responsible for 75% of the region's net emissions, while dry tundra and upland boreal forests are responsible for 50% and 45% of total consumption over the region, respectively. In response to climate change over the 21st century, our simulations indicated that CH4 emissions from wet soils would be enhanced more than consumption by dry soils of tundra and boreal forests. As a consequence, we projected that net CH4 emissions will almost double by the end of the century in response to high-latitude warming and associated climate changes. When we placed these CH4 emissions in the context of the projected carbon budget (carbon dioxide [CO2] and CH4) for Alaska at the end of the 21st century, we estimated that Alaska will be a net source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere of 69 Tg CO2 equivalents/yr, that is, a balance between net methane emissions of 131 Tg CO2 equivalents/yr and carbon sequestration of 17 Tg C/yr (62 Tg CO2 equivalents/yr).     

Mature and old-growth riparian forests: structure, dynamics, and effects on Adirondack stream habitats.

Riparian forests regulate linkages between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, yet relationships among riparian forest development, stand structure, and stream habitats are poorly understood in many temperate deciduous forest systems. Our research has (1) described structural attributes associated with old-growth riparian forests and (2) assessed linkages between these characteristics and in-stream habitat structure. The 19 study sites were located along predominantly first- and second-order streams in northern hardwood-conifer forests in the Adirondack Mountains of New York (U.S.A.). Sites were classified as mature forest (6 sites), mature with remnant old-growth trees (3 sites), and old-growth (10 sites). Forest-structure attributes were measured over stream channels and at varying distances from each bank. In-stream habitat features such as large woody debris (LWD), pools, and boulders were measured in each stream reach. Forest structure was examined in relation to stand age using multivariate techniques, ANOVA, and linear regression. We investigated linkages between forest structure and stream characteristics using similar methods, preceded by information-theoretic modeling (AIC). Old-growth riparian forest structure is more complex than that found in mature forests and exhibits significantly greater accumulations of aboveground tree biomass, both living and dead. In-stream LWD volumes were significantly (alpha = 0.05) greater at old-growth sites (200 m3/ha) compared to mature sites (34 m3/ha) and were strongly related to the basal area of adjacent forests. In-stream large-log densities correlated strongly with debris-dam densities. AIC models that included large-log density, debris-dam density, boulder density, and bankfull width had the most support for predicting pool density. There were higher proportions of LWD-formed pools relative to boulder-formed pools at old-growth sites as compared to mature sites. Old-growth riparian forests provide in-stream habitat features that have not been widely recognized in eastern North America, representing a potential benefit from late-successional riparian forest management and conservation. Riparian management practices (including buffer delineation and restorative silvicultural approaches) that emphasize development and maintenance of late-successional characteristics are recommended where the associated in-stream effects are desired.     

Group navigation and the "many-wrongs principle" in models of animal movement

Traditional studies of animal navigation over both long and short distances have usually considered the orientation ability of the individual only, without reference to the implications of group membership. However, recent work has suggested that being in a group can significantly improve the ability of an individual to align toward and reach a target direction or point, even when all group members have limited navigational ability and there are no leaders. This effect is known as the "many-wrongs principle" since the large number of individual navigational errors across the group are suppressed by interactions and group cohesion. In this paper, we simulate the many-wrongs principle using a simple individual-based model of movement based on a biased random walk that includes group interactions. We study the ability of the group as a whole to reach a target given different levels of individual navigation error, group size, interaction radius, and environmental turbulence. In scenarios with low levels of environmental turbulence, simulation results demonstrate a navigational benefit from group membership, particularly for small group sizes. In contrast, when movement takes place in a highly turbulent environment, simulation results suggest that the best strategy is to navigate as individuals rather than as a group.     

Sediment texture and nutrients of Arasalar estuary, Karaikkal, south-east coast of India

Sediment samples were collected for texture, composition and nutrient such as organic carbon, total nitrogen and total phosphorus for a period of two years from three stations in Arasalar estuary. The sediment temperature, pH and nutrients were higher during summer season and lower during monsoon season. At station 1, sediment texture was loamy sand during summer and premonsoon season. At station 2, clay type soil was recorded. Whereas, at station 3, clay was observed in summer and premonsoon and then it shifted to sandy loam type soil during monsoon. Sediment nutrients were lower than that of values of various ecosystem of India.     

Trophic structure of coastal Antarctic food webs associated with changes in sea ice and food supply

Predicting the dynamics of ecosystems requires an understanding of how trophic interactions respond to environmental change. In Antarctic marine ecosystems, food web dynamics are inextricably linked to sea ice conditions that affect the nature and magnitude of primary food sources available to higher trophic levels. Recent attention on the changing sea ice conditions in polar seas highlights the need to better understand how marine food webs respond to changes in such broad-scale environmental drivers. This study investigated the importance of sea ice and advected primary food sources to the structure of benthic food webs in coastal Antarctica. We compared the isotopic composition of several seafloor taxa (including primary producers and invertebrates with a variety of feeding modes) that are widely distributed in the Antarctic. We assessed shifts in the trophic role of numerically dominant benthic omnivores at five coastal Ross Sea locations. These locations vary in primary productivity and food availability, due to their different levels of sea ice cover, and proximity to polynyas and advected primary production. The delta15N signatures and isotope mixing model results for the bivalves Laternula elliptica and Adamussium colbecki and the urchin Sterechinus neumeyeri indicate a shift from consumption of a higher proportion of detritus at locations with more permanent sea ice in the south to more freshly produced algal material associated with proximity to ice-free water in the north and east. The detrital pathways utilized by many benthic species may act to dampen the impacts of large seasonal fluctuations in the availability of primary production. The limiting relationship between sea ice distribution and in situ primary productivity emphasizes the role of connectivity and spatial subsidies of organic matter in fueling the food web. Our results begin to provide a basis for predicting how benthic ecosystems will respond to changes in sea ice persistence and extent along environmental gradients in the high Antarctic.     

Robust population management under uncertainty for structured population models.

Structured population models are increasingly used in decision making, but typically have many entries that are unknown or highly uncertain. We present an approach for the systematic analysis of the effect of uncertainties on long-term population growth or decay. Many decisions for threatened and endangered species are made with poor or no information. We can still make decisions under these circumstances in a manner that is highly defensible, even without making assumptions about the distribution of uncertainty, or limiting ourselves to discussions of single, infinitesimally small changes in the parameters. Suppose that the model (determined by the data) for the population in question predicts long-term growth. Our goal is to determine how uncertain the data can be before the model loses this property. Some uncertainties will maintain long-term growth, and some will lead to long-term decay. The uncertainties are typically structured, and can be described by several parameters. We show how to determine which parameters maintain long-term growth. We illustrate the advantages of the method by applying it to a Peregrine Falcon population. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recently decided to allow minimal harvesting of Peregrine Falcons after their recent removal from the Endangered Species List. Based on published demographic rates, we find that an asymptotic growth rate lambda > 1 is guaranteed with 5% harvest rate up to 3% error in adult survival if no two-year-olds breed, and up to 11% error if all two-year-olds breed. If a population growth rate of 3% or greater is desired, the acceptable error in adult survival decreases to between 1% and 6% depending of the proportion of two-year-olds that breed. These results clearly show the interactions between uncertainties in different parameters, and suggest that a harvest decision at this stage may be premature without solid data on adult survival and the frequency of breeding by young adults.     

Impact of canal development on intertidal microalgal productivity: Comparative assessment of Patterson Lakes and Ralphs Bay,South East Australia

We assessed the potential impact of a proposed canal development in an estuarine sandflat at Ralphs Bay, Tasmania on intertidal microalgal productivity and species composition, by comparing it over summer and winter seasons with a well- established (30 year old) canal estate at Patterson Lakes, Victoria. Pulse amplitude modulation (PAM) fluorometry was used to generate a relative measure of photosynthetic performance, which combined with microalgal chlorophyll biomass and irradiance provides an assessment of potential primary productivity. We present a sophisticated mathematical model for calculating benthic microalgal production and the contribution to total primary production, taking into account sediment light attenuation as estimated from sediment grain size. Ralphs Bay had a total productive microalgal biomass of 44 mg chlorophyll a m⁻² which was six times higher than Patterson Lakes, while the relative productivity of Ralphs Bay was four times greater compared to Patterson Lakes where productivity was virtually absent in the subtidal zone of the canal waterway. Ralphs Bay exhibited a more or less homogeneous spatial distribution of microphytobenthos biomass but this was subject to some seasonal variation in species composition, abundance and productivity. By contrast, at Patterson Lakes biomass distribution, diversity and productivity was highly spatially variable in the canal system in both seasons. Patterson Lakes exhibited 60% lower microphytobenthos species richness than Ralphs Bay but little variation in species composition occurred between seasons in the canal estate. This suggests that the dominant diatom species in Patterson Lakes, Pinnularia yarrensis, Gyrosigma balticum and Pleurosigma salinarum, are well adapted to the disturbance regime within the canal estate. The proposed canal development at Ralphs Bay is estimated to cause a decrease in microalgal productivity by both reducing available marine substrate (66% reduction) and replacing productive intertidal phytobenthic habitat with nonproductive canal substrate. These combine to cause a decline in productivity of 92% with significant flow-on effects predicted for higher trophic levels such as migratory wading birds.     

Application of a coupled ecosystem-chemical equilibrium model, DayCent-Chem, to stream and soil chemistry in a Rocky Mountain watershed

Atmospheric deposition of sulfur and nitrogen species have the potential to acidify terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, but nitrate and ammonium are also critical nutrients for plant and microbial productivity. Both the ecological response and the hydrochemical response to atmospheric deposition are of interest to regulatory and land management agencies. We developed a non-spatial biogeochemical model to simulate soil and surface water chemistry by linking the daily version of the CENTURY ecosystem model (DayCent) with a low temperature aqueous geochemical model, PHREEQC. The coupled model, DayCent-Chem, simulates the daily dynamics of plant production, soil organic matter, cation exchange, mineral weathering, elution, stream discharge, and solute concentrations in soil water and stream flow. By aerially weighting the contributions of separate bedrock/talus and tundra simulations, the model was able to replicate the measured seasonal and annual stream chemistry for most solutes for Andrews Creek in Loch Vale watershed, Rocky Mountain National Park. Simulated soil chemistry, net primary production, live biomass, and soil organic matter for forest and tundra matched well with measurements. This model is appropriate for accurately describing ecosystem and surface water chemical response to atmospheric deposition and climate change.