Baseline Standardisation with Optimising Energy-System Models

Determining adequate baselinesis a major methodological problem whenquantifying emissions reductions achievedwith the project-based flexibilitymechanisms. Possible methodologies forbaseline setting may be classified intomulti-project and project-specificapproaches. While multi-project approachesprovide baselines for a series of typicalprojects within a certain geographicregion, a sector, or a load range,project-specific (orproject-by-project/single-project)approaches only cover one specific project.Project-by-project baseline approaches havebeen tested extensively within theActivities Implemented Jointly (AIJ) pilotphase; multi-project methodologies, on theother hand, have only rarely been applieddue to the (perceived) political andeconomic complexity of the issue, whichmakes the process of introducingstandardised baselines a very sensitivetask. In particular, there is a lack ofmulti-project baseline approaches takingadvantage of optimising computer modelswithin the electricity sector, even thoughother fields of research have made use ofsuch models quite successfully in the past.Experiences made in the PROBASE projectwith the calculation of standardised,aggregated multi-project baselines forJI/CDM projects using optimising energysystem models are illustrated in this paperfor South Africa, Russia, and Indonesia.Increased transparency and credibility ofstandardised approaches along withpotentially lower transaction costs areidentified as the main arguments for theiruse and further development. In addition,the text gives recommendations wheremodel-based baseline standardisation canpreferentially be applied.     

Assessing the carbon balance of circumpolar Arctic tundra using remote sensing and process modeling.

This paper reviews the current status of using remote sensing and process-based modeling approaches to assess the contemporary and future circumpolar carbon balance of Arctic tundra, including the exchange of both carbon dioxide and methane with the atmosphere. Analyses based on remote sensing approaches that use a 20-year data record of satellite data indicate that tundra is greening in the Arctic, suggesting an increase in photosynthetic activity and net primary production. Modeling studies generally simulate a small net carbon sink for the distribution of Arctic tundra, a result that is within the uncertainty range of field-based estimates of net carbon exchange. Applications of process-based approaches for scenarios of future climate change generally indicate net carbon sequestration in Arctic tundra as enhanced vegetation production exceeds simulated increases in decomposition. However, methane emissions are likely to increase dramatically, in response to rising soil temperatures, over the next century. Key uncertainties in the response of Arctic ecosystems to climate change include uncertainties in future fire regimes and uncertainties relating to changes in the soil environment. These include the response of soil decomposition and respiration to warming and deepening of the soil active layer, uncertainties in precipitation and potential soil drying, and distribution of wetlands. While there are numerous uncertainties in the projections of process-based models, they generally indicate that Arctic tundra will be a small sink for carbon over the next century and that methane emissions will increase considerably, which implies that exchange of greenhouse gases between the atmosphere and Arctic tundra ecosystems is likely to contribute to climate warming.     

Effects of spatial variability and colony size on the reproductive output and gonadal development cycle of the Mediterranean red coral (Corallium rubrum L.)

Red coral (Corallium rubrum, L. 1758) is an over-exploited Mediterranean gorgonian. The gonadal development cycle of this gorgonian is examined at the Costa Brava (NW Mediterranean) taking into account for the first time colony size, depth and spatial horizontal variability. This study compares the gonad development and fertility in two colony size classes (colonies <6-cm height, and >10-cm height, both at 40–45-m depth), and two populations at different depths (16–18-m depth, and 40–45-m depth, both consisting of <6-cm high colonies) in a 15-month period. The fertility of seven size classes (<2 cm to >12 cm high colonies, in 2 cm intervals) was examined in the deep population, where large colonies were present. Furthermore, reproductive output was compared in 6 populations (distributed along more than 70-km coastline) one month before spawning (June). Red coral was found to be dioecious and gonochoric with a sex ratio of 1:1, which differs from other NW Mediterranean populations. On the other hand, fertility of different size classes indicates that small colonies of 2-cm height already produce gonads, which is in line with previous studies. Female and male polyp fertility and sperm sac size increase significantly with colony size [sperm sac diameter: 476±144 μm (mean±SD) and 305±150 μm in the >10-cm and <6-cm height colonies, respectively), whereas no significant effect on oocyte diameter was found (oocyte diameter: 373.7±18.7 μm). Depth staggered spawning, that is, an earlier release of gonads in the shallow populations, was observed in summer 2003, coinciding with the highest temperature gradient between shallow and deep water during the study period. Colonies of <6-cm height were significantly less fertile than colonies >12 cm, thus the recommendation of this study is that a minimum height should be incorporated into fishing regulations. The six studied populations at the Costa Brava showed a comparable reproductive potential, which demonstrates little variability within the homogenous population structure and range of size classes (due to overharvesting) found at the Costa Brava. The study of reproductive output is an important tool for ecosystem management, and this work recommends basing specific exploitation laws for distinctive populations on colony size, which is found to have a larger effect on reproductive potential than mesoscale variability. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Not Only Single Mating in Stingless Bees

Queens of the large, pantropical and fully eusocial taxon Meliponinae (stingless bees) are generally considered to be singly mated. We indirectly estimated queen mating frequency in two meliponids, Melipona beecheii and Scaptotrigona postica, by examining genotypes of workers at microsatellite DNA loci. Microsatellites were highly variable, providing suitable markers with which to assign patrilinial origin of workers within colonies headed by single queens. Queen mating frequency varied between 1 and 3 (M. beecheii) and 1 and 6 (S. postica), representing the first clear documentation of polyandry in the Meliponinae. Effective paternity frequency, m _e , was lower, although above 2 for S. postica. Stingless bees may provide suitable subjects for the testing of recent inclusive fitness arguments describing intracolony kin conflict in social Hymenoptera. Received: 26 August 1998 / Accepted in revised form: 18 November 1998     

Is placental mosaicism associated with poor perinatal outcome?

In 37 pregnancies with placental mosaicism detected at first-trimester chorionic villus sampling in 2000 pregnancies, two pregnancies (5.4 per cent) ended in a spontaneous abortion at 15 weeks (46,XX/47,XX, + 16) and in a perinatal loss in a term pregnancy (46,XY/ 47,XY, +10), respectively. The outcome of the other 35 pregnancies was normal. The total pregnancy loss rate before 28 weeks in the first 1000 pregnancies was previously reported to be 3.6 per cent.     

Males in the shade: habitat use and sexual segregation in the Galápagos sea lion (Zalophus californianus wollebaeki)

In many sexually dimorphic species adult sexes tend to segregate socially, spatially, or in habitat use. Several hypotheses have been formulated regarding underlying mechanisms. We investigated terrestrial habitat use and sexual segregation in a tropical otariid, the Galápagos sea lion (Zalophus californianus wollebaeki), where most of the hypotheses can be ruled out a priori. Factors relating to thermoregulation and costs of locomotion were of prime importance for habitat use. Habitats directly adjacent to the sea, with simple structured flat surfaces, shade, and tide pools were most frequented, but sexes and age classes differed in their usage patterns. Sexual segregation, both spatial and by habitat was pronounced in the reproductive period (RP), but remained high during the nonreproductive period (NRP). A GLM model of habitat use showed that in both seasons adult males frequented habitat types that adult females and other age classes used much less. Males were most abundant in suboptimal inland habitats, which offered only shade for cooling. Females with newborns differed in habitat use from females with older offspring and lone females. Spatial and habitat segregation are explained most parsimoniously as by-products of social processes, primarily intrasexual competition and female avoidance of male harassment, linked to the polygynous mating system.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at and is accessible for authorized users.     

Respiration of Sepia officinalis during embryonic and early juvenile life

Adult Sepia officinalis L. were caught in June 1984, in the coastal waters of Wimereux (France). Deposition of the eggs took place in the seawater aquaria of the Station Marine. The oxygen consumption of S. officinalis was measured during embryonic and juvenile development. Aerobic metabolism occurs as soon as the early embryonic Stage 21. Oxygen diffuses through the initially thick egg shell; the oxygen level in the perivitelline liquid reaches a maximal value just before hatching (116.7±6.9 mm Hg). Hatchings display only a slight increase in oxygen consumption compared to embryos in the last stage of development. Respiration experiments with 40 d old juveniles showed that oxygen consumption increases with temperature, but is not affected by photoperiod. Experiments under increasing hypoxia revealed that S. officinalis juveniles are good regulators and maintain a constant oxygen consumption in the range of 4 to 7 mg O₂l^-1. Juveniles successfully recover from an hypoxic stress of 2 mg O₂l^-1 maintained for 1 h. This suggests that the respiratory pigments (pre-hemocyanins) of 40 d-old juveniles have a high oxygen affinity and/or that these juveniles have the ability to adapt to anaerobic conditions.     

Cytogenetic diagnoses after chorionic villus sampling are less reliable in very-high- or very-low-risk pregnancies

An increasing number of cytogenetic prenatal diagnoses are performed on chorionic villus samplings. The accuracy of this method is influenced by chromosomal mosaicism, mostly confined to direct preparation methods. Especially those investigators who have experienced false-negative and false-positive findings propagate the combined use of direct and culture methods. Yet large collaborative studies have shown that in approximately two-thirds of diagnostic cases only one procedure is applied. Moreover, the accuracy of a cytogenetic investigation depends not only on the ontogenetic origin of the tissues investigated, but also on interacting factors such as the ‘a priori risk’ and the ‘predictive value of a cytogenetic finding’. On this basis a differentiated prenatal diagnostic procedure is discussed, including either sole short-term culture (STC), combined STC and long-term culture (LTC), primary amniocentesis (AC), or primary percutaneous umbilical blood sampling (PUBS). The predictive value of the cytogenetic diagnosis from CVS varies significantly dependent on the a priori risk of a chromosome aberration and, in the case of an abnormal karyotype, on the specific chromosome involved. A non-mosaic and ‘non-lethal’ trisomy detected in STC is highly representative of the embryo/fetus, but there are exceptions of limited predictive value, e.g., trisomy 18. Guided by the strategy of an optional follow-up by LTC, AC, or PUBS in 1317 successive CV samplings, we are not aware of a false-negative diagnosis, but probably had one false-positive diagnosis: 47,XXY after STC; 46,XY after LTC. When referring to the rate of fetuses with an unbalanced karyotype expected in the different indication groups, a relative increase of false-positive findings in the very-low-risk group (maternal age ⩽35 years of age) and of false-negative findings in the very-high-risk group (abnormal ultrasonographic findings) of pregnant women when only performing CVS becomes obvious. Because of this dilemma, AC or—especially in the latter group—PUBS might be primarily offered to these indication groups instead of CVS.