关于未来中国劳动力是否短缺的一个证明

迅速发生的人口转变现象对未来中国社会的各个方面影响深远,经济增长同样受到人口转变的影响.本文以1978-2004年为样本区间.按照2010、2020、2030年劳动力人口预测数,对未来经济增长的4种路径分别进行模拟.通过分析中国经济增长模式和内在源泉.我们发现在未来很长一段时间内,全要素生产率代表的技术进步、劳动力受教育水平的提高和制度变迁等其他因素,都会降低人口转变对未来经济增长可能的影响.由人口转变导致的劳动年龄人口减少不太可能对中国未来年均经济增长7.2%的目标构成较大瓶颈.而有可能的瓶颈应该是资本存羹能否继续维持目前这种高速增长、低效利用的状态.在未来的经济增长中,我们急需改变对资本投入的过度依赖.发挥技术进步和制度改革的力量,以减缓外部冲击对宏观经济的整体影响.     

Performance Enhancement of a Beta Type Rhombic Drive Stirling engine

ABSTRACT

Stirling engines maintain attraction because of their high energy conversion efficiencies. In this study, experimental comparison of a beta-type Stirling engine for two different rhombic-drive mechanisms was presented. In one of the rhombic mechanisms, spur gears were used and the gear shaft was supported in bearings from one side. In the other mechanism, two helical gears were placed on crankshafts and the crankshafts were supported in bearings from both sides. Rhombus lengths of the mechanisms were determined as 66 mm and 80 mm to provide same constant compression ratio of 2.5 for both configurations. Both mechanisms were used in the same beta-type Stirling engine having same cylinder, piston and displacer dimensions. Performance parameters of the engines were evaluated at different helium charge pressures (2–4 bar) and hot-end temperatures (400–600°C). The hot-end of the displacer cylinder was heated by a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) burner. The engine power increased by 132%, friction losses and gear noses were reduced by supporting the rhombic-drive mechanism from both side and using helical gears. The maximum output torque and power of the engine were obtained as 13.14 Nm at 428 rpm engine speed and 663 W at 800 rpm engine speed, respectively, at 600°C hot-end temperature and 4 bar charge pressure.     

对用近因原则处理工伤认定的思考

近因原则是商业保险中用于区分保险责任和非保险责任的一个被普遍认可的工作原则,工伤认定是确认是否进行工伤保险金给付的前提。针对目前中国工伤认定相关法律不健全的现状,笔者首次提出在工伤认定有关规定的列举法空白处,使用近因原则的建议。有益于完善工伤认定工作。通过分析我国工伤认定有关规定的历史沿革与现行做法,指出现行工伤认定规定不合理之处,如列举未尽的弹性处理不利于员工、严苛的免责条款不利于雇主、雇员野蛮操作零成本降低社会福利,应用近因原则处理过劳死、未经归类的职业病两个案例,弥补现行工伤认定立法缺陷,实践证明,工伤认定中使用近因原则是可行的、合理的、实用的。     

中国城市污水处理厂资源配置效率的比较

采用平均生产函数模型、边界生产函数以及数据包络分析(DEA)模型3种方法,对中国81个污水处理厂的样本观测数据,从不同角度进行了比较研究,分别得出上述3种模型对产出弹性、技术效率和规模经济性等主要指标的模拟结果.研究发现,资本对我国城市污水处理厂的产出弹性最大(0.507),其次是运营电耗(0.415),再次为劳动力;我国污水厂普遍处于规模报酬率递增阶段,样本总体的规模报酬率为1.11;根据DEA的分析结果,列出了81个样本污水厂的效率排序清单,这将有助于制定行业绩效标准.     

Breeding success of tree swallows along a gradient of agricultural intensification

The intensification of agricultural practices has been identified as the main cause of population decline in farmland birds since the 1960s in both Europe and North America. Although the links between species richness or abundance and various components of agricultural intensification are well established, the mechanisms underlying these trends have rarely been addressed along a gradient of intensification or have been quantified at only one spatial scale. Here we quantified the influence of landscape structure on the nest box occupancy and breeding success of Tree Swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) at seven spatial scales (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, and 20 km radii) over a 10 200-km2 gradient of agricultural intensification in southern Québec, Canada. A network of 400 nest boxes distributed among 40 farms was visited every two days over three breeding seasons, 2004-2006. Nest box occupancy decreased with the proportion of intensive cultures (maize, cereals, and soybeans) in the landscape, especially when manure heaps and tanks were abundant, and was also determined by local variables (i.e., nest box clearance, interspecific competition) and by previous-year fledging success. Clutch size decreased as the breeding season progressed and with the proportion of intensive cultures in the landscape, with no consistent variation across spatial scales. Hatching success was not related to any landscape variables but increased with clutch size. Both the number of fledglings and fledging probability increased with the proportion of extensive cultures (hayfields, pastures, and fallows). These effects increased with spatial scale and reached a plateau at the 5 km radius: the maximum distance from the nest reached by foraging Tree Swallows. Our results can likely be attributed to lower food availability in intensive cultures compared to extensive ones. This study suggests that several components of breeding that impact on population structure and dynamics of insectivorous birds will be negatively affected by agricultural intensification.     

Influence of environmental temperature and relative humidity on photocatalytic oxidation of toluene on activated carbon fibers coated TiO

TiO₂ supported on active carbon fiber (TiO₂/ACF), an absorbable photocatalyst, is a new kind of material applied in air purification. In this paper, the influence of environmental temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) on the gas-solid adsorption of toluene and the photocatalytic oxidation (PCO) efficiency of adsorbed toluene on TiO₂/ACF were studied, and then, the purification capability of TiO₂/ACF was estimated. PCO results showed that although the PCO efficiency increased under high RH and T levels, the amount of adsorption of toluene decreased. Moreover, quantitative analysis results of intermediates indicated that more environmental risk emerged when PCO of toluene was carried out at higher environmental T and RH levels because more toxic intermediates would be accumulated on the TiO₂/ACF. So, it is significant to control the environmental T and RH conditions in the application of the PCO technique. T = 25°C and RH = 30% is the optimal condition for purifying toluene in our experimental system.     

中国实施清洁发展机制的潜力分析

建立了一个全球碳排放贸易局部均衡模型(TRCW),用于分析中国实施清洁发展机制(CDM)的市场潜力和市场结构.模型结合相关国际协议的规定,考虑了美国的退出、碳汇项目、热空气规模、交易成本、适应性基金、垄断供给等现实因素.结果表明,在马拉喀什协议下,中国的CDM市场规模大大缩小,仅为61MtC/a,利润收入约1.5亿$/a,其中重工业和电力分别约占41%和20%左右;如果俄罗斯不出售其拥有的热空气,中国的CDM规模将提高67%;在CDM市场上中国几乎不存在垄断力量.     

Towards a framework for assessment and management of cumulative human impacts on marine food webs

Effective ecosystem‐based management requires understanding ecosystem responses to multiple human threats, rather than focusing on single threats. To understand ecosystem responses to anthropogenic threats holistically, it is necessary to know how threats affect different components within ecosystems and ultimately alter ecosystem functioning. We used a case study of a Mediterranean seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) food web and expert knowledge elicitation in an application of the initial steps of a framework for assessment of cumulative human impacts on food webs. We produced a conceptual seagrass food web model, determined the main trophic relationships, identified the main threats to the food web components, and assessed the components’ vulnerability to those threats. Some threats had high (e.g., coastal infrastructure) or low impacts (e.g., agricultural runoff) on all food web components, whereas others (e.g., introduced carnivores) had very different impacts on each component. Partitioning the ecosystem into its components enabled us to identify threats previously overlooked and to reevaluate the importance of threats commonly perceived as major. By incorporating this understanding of system vulnerability with data on changes in the state of each threat (e.g., decreasing domestic pollution and increasing fishing) into a food web model, managers may be better able to estimate and predict cumulative human impacts on ecosystems and to prioritize conservation actions.