Process-based modeling of species' distributions: what limits temperate tree species' range boundaries?

Niche-based models are widely used to understand what environmental factors determine species' distributions, but they do not provide a clear framework to study the processes involved in defining species' ranges. Here we used a process-based model to identify these processes and to assess the potential distribution of 17 North American boreal/temperate tree species. Using input of only climate and soil properties, the model reproduced the 17 species' distributions accurately. Our results allowed us to identify the climatic factors as well as the biological processes involved in limiting species' ranges. The model showed that climatic constraints limit species' distributions mainly through their impact on phenological processes, and secondarily through their impact on drought and frost mortality. The northern limit of species' ranges appears to be caused mainly by the inability to undergo full fruit ripening and/or flowering, while the southern limit is caused by the inability to flower or by frost injury to flowers. These findings about the ecological processes shaping tree species' distribution represent a crucial step toward obtaining a more complete picture of the potential impact of climate on species' ranges.     

The role of economic invisibility in development: veiling women's work in rural Pakistan

The thesis in this article is that both women's work and its invisibility are essential to development, and at two levels: to the economy of rural households and to the wider development process. For rural households, the case of Pakistan suggests that the veils that conceal women's work shield a portion of household production from the risks and extractions inherent in their involvement with development. This shielded production depends on off-farm natural resources of which the use is also veiled. For States and other development interests, the author suggests that women's work constitutes a subsidy which is intentionally invisible. The subsidy of women's labour is linked to a forest-to-farm subsidy. Women's invisible work, in other words, is not invisible because it is not seen, but because the process of economic development—for both rural households and States and other development actors—requires that it be hidden.     

Uncertain penalties and compliance: experimental evidence

Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - We present the results of a series of economic laboratory experiments designed to study the compliance behavior of polluting firms when penalties are...     

Using Expert and Non-expert Models of Climate Change to Enhance Communication

Climate change is a significant global risk that is predicted to be particularly devastating to coastal communities. Climate change adaptation and mitigation have been hindered by many factors, including psychological barriers, ineffective outreach and communication, and knowledge gaps. This qualitative study compares an expert model of climate change risks to county administrators' “mental” models of climate change and related coastal environmental hazards in Crystal River, Florida, USA. There were 24 common nodes in the expert and the combined non-expert models, mainly related to hurricanes, property damage, and economic concerns. Seven nodes mentioned by non-experts fit within, but were not a part of, the expert model, primarily related to ecological concerns about water quality. The findings suggest that effective climate outreach and communication could focus on compatible parts of the models and incorporate local concerns to find less controversial ways to discuss climate-related hazards.     

Binary logistic regression—Instrument for assessing museum indoor air impact on exhibits

This paper presents a new way to assess the environmental impact on historical artifacts using binary logistic regression. The prediction of the impact on the exhibits during certain pollution scenarios (environmental impact) was calculated by a mathematical model based on the binary logistic regression; it allows the identification of those environmental parameters from a multitude of possible parameters with a significant impact on exhibitions and ranks them according to their severity effect. Air quality (NO₂, SO₂, O₃ and PM_2.5) and microclimate parameters (temperature, humidity) monitoring data from a case study conducted within exhibition and storage spaces of the Romanian National Aviation Museum Bucharest have been used for developing and validating the binary logistic regression method and the mathematical model. The logistic regression analysis was used on 794 data combinations (715 to develop of the model and 79 to validate it) by a Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS 20.0). The results from the binary logistic regression analysis demonstrated that from six parameters taken into consideration, four of them present a significant effect upon exhibits in the following order: O₃>PM_2.5>NO₂>humidity followed at a significant distance by the effects of SO₂ and temperature. The mathematical model, developed in this study, correctly predicted 95.1 % of the cumulated effect of the environmental parameters upon the exhibits. Moreover, this model could also be used in the decisional process regarding the preventive preservation measures that should be implemented within the exhibition space.

Implications: The paper presents a new way to assess the environmental impact on historical artifacts using binary logistic regression. The mathematical model developed on the environmental parameters analyzed by the binary logistic regression method could be useful in a decision-making process establishing the best measures for pollution reduction and preventive preservation of exhibits.     

The Accumulation of Fluorine by Plants

The accumulation and distribution of fluorine (F) in -plant leaves have been studied to better understand the response of plants to concentrations of atmospheric fluoride (F) that are similar to those found in urban or industrial areas. The results indicate that F from the air can be adsorbed to the surface of leaves as well as accumulated internally and that F in leaves can be translocated outward to the surface as well as upward to the tips. F injury and accumulation can be induced in any desired location on a gladiolus blade by restricting gas exchange of the blade, indicating that all parts of a blade are sensitive to F-induced injury. It is, therefore, suggested that the wide differences often found between plant species and varieties with respect to both susceptibility to injury and degree of F accumulation may be explained by differences in the means of accumulation, trans-location, and distribution of F. F remains in a soluble form in plant leaves and maintains the chemical properties of free, inorganic F. The solubility and mobility of F and the ease of removal from plant tissues indicate that irreversible binding to cellular components does not occur.     

Studies on the Measurement of Fluoride in Air and Plant Tissues By the Willard-Winter and Semiautomated Methods

Determinations of F in plant tissues by the Willard-Winter and semiautomated methods have been studied for the presence of determinate and indeterminate errors by multiple linear regression analysis. The results have provided a better understanding of the magnitude of differences between tissue samples required for statistical significance and have suggested that the errors involved are much greater both in number and magnitude than usually assumed. The results have also established that the semiautomated method is a satisfactory alternative to the Willard-Winter method for determining the F content of plant tissues. Investigations of the sources of error in F determinations by the semi-automated method were carried out, and the results indicated a number of ways of reducing errors. Determinations of the F content of air by three methods were compared and studied to estimate the magnitude and locate the sources of error. Here, too, the results indicated that present estimates of the reliability of determinations of the F content of air may be overrated, and they have suggested that improvement in the means of collection of HF is the best way of improving reproducibility.     

An Epidemiological Study of Exposure to Coal Tar Pitch Volatiles Among Coke Oven Workers

Recent studies of mortality among coke plant workers indicate that there is an excess of respiratory cancer among men employed at the coke ovens and that the mortality is related to work areas and length of exposure to coal tar effluents, the body of information presented in this paper is directed to categorization of coke oven jobs into different work areas in terms of exposure to coal tar pitch volatiles developing an index of cumulative exposure to investigate the dose-response relationship between exposure and mortality. The exposure data have been taken from a study conducted by the Pennsylvania Department of Health, State Division of Occupational Health, and mortality data are based on a long-term study of steelworkers, conducted by the Department of Biostatistics, University of Pittsburgh. A summary index calculated for each worker combining the level of exposure and length of time exposed indicates that, as expected, both these factors are related to the development of cancer, particularly cancers of the respiratory system.

Conclusions of note are: Measured levels of coal tar pitch volatiles are 2-3 times higher for men who work at the top of coke ovens as compared to men employed at the side of the ovens. Even though the specific carcinogenic element or elements in the coke oven environment are not known at the present time, in-. creasing levels of exposure to coal tar pitch volatiles are related to art increased risk of dying from malignant neoplasms. Further coal tar pitch volatile measurements need to be made and analyses designed which will specify the dose-response relationship more precisely. This will provide information necessary to evaluate the recommended Threshold Limit Value.     

What Is the Potential Measurement Error in Occupational Exposure Studies?

ABSTRACT

This paper demonstrates statistical methods that estimate measurement error from available industrial hygiene data. Errors in measuring a continuous exposure variable may arise when all individuals in a work area are assigned the same exposure. An example is when the mean of exposure measurements obtained on a sample of individuals is assigned to all workers with similar jobs. This may lead to inaccurate point and interval estimates in exposure-response modeling. A method of simulating the distribution of true (i.e., unobserved) individual exposures is described in order to estimate the mean and variance of measurement error. The minimum variance unbiased estimator approximates the mean of lognormally distributed exposure measurements. The distribution of true individual exposures is approximated by the distribution of simulated estimates of mean exposure. The methodology is illustrated by exposure data from work areas manufacturing refractory ceramic fiber (RCF) and RCF products. Results show that exposure is slightly underestimated in work areas with between 25 and 113 exposure measurements; measurement error variance averages about 1.3% of the total variance.