Will progress in science and technology avert or accelerate global collapse? A critical analysis and policy recommendations

Industrial society will move towards collapse if its total environmental impact (I), expressed either in terms of energy and materials use or in terms of pollution, increases with time, i.e., dI/dt > 0. The traditional interpretation of the I = PAT equation reflects the optimistic belief that technological innovation, particularly improvements in eco-efficiency, will significantly reduce the technology (T) factor, and thereby result in a corresponding decline in impact (I). Unfortunately, this interpretation of the I = PAT equation ignores the effects of technological change on the other two factors: population (P) and per capita affluence (A). A more heuristic formulation of this equation is I = P(T)·A(T)·T in which the dependence of P and A on T is apparent. From historical evidence, it is clear that technological revolutions (tool-making, agricultural, and industrial) have been the primary driving forces behind successive population explosions, and that modern communication and transportation technologies have been employed to transform a large proportion of the world’s inhabitants into consumers of material- and energy-intensive products and services. In addition, factor analysis from neoclassical growth theory and the rebound effect provide evidence that science and technology have played a key role in contributing to rising living standards. While technological change has thus contributed to significant increases in both P and A, it has at the same time brought about considerable eco-efficiency improvements. Unfortunately, reductions in the T-factor have generally not been sufficiently rapid to compensate for the simultaneous increases in both P and A. As a result, total impact, in terms of energy production, mineral extraction, land-use and CO₂ emissions, has in most cases increased with time, indicating that industrial society is nevertheless moving towards collapse. The belief that continued and even accelerated scientific research and technological innovation will automatically result in sustainability and avert collapse is at best mistaken. Innovations in science and technology will be necessary but alone will be insufficient for sustainability. Consequently, what is most needed are specific policies designed to decrease total impact, such as (a) halting population growth via effective population stabilization plans and better access to birth control methods, (b) reducing total matter-energy throughput and pollution by removing perverse subsidies, imposing regulations that limit waste discharges and the depletion of non-renewable resources, and implementing ecological tax reform, and (c) moving towards a steady-state economy in which per-capita affluence is stabilized at lower levels by replacing wasteful conspicuous material consumption with social alternatives known to enhance subjective well-being. While science and technology must play an important role in the implementation of these policies, none will be enacted without a fundamental change in society’s dominant values of growth and exploitation. Thus, value change is the most important prerequisite for avoiding global collapse.

The benefits of the Kyoto Protocol to developing countries

The Kyoto Protocol relies on incentive-based regulations layered underneath a global cap on net emissions of greenhouse gases. Within the Kyoto Protocol are opportunities and constraints for signatory nations. Of concern to developing nations are the constraints the Kyoto Protocol could place on future growth. We examine the constraints and the opportunities offered to developing countries within the Kyoto Protocol. By identifying the potential costs and benefits the Kyoto Protocol has to offer to developing countries and by examining the incentives each create, we hope to spark serious investigations into ways to minimize the potential costs of entering the Kyoto Protocol and take full advantage of the potential benefits.

Assessment of the natural-cultural resources in Çanakkale for nature-based tourism

While the world is going into different tourism expectations, the tourism understanding in Turkey is defined as tourism in the sea-sand-sun triangle. However, it is possible to contribute to the income and local development of the indigenous people by developing nature-based tourism. Besides, with the sustainable use and preservation of the natural-cultural assets, the damage of the traditional tourism industry on the natural and cultural environment could be reduced. In this study, it is aimed to bring up the nature-based tourism concept in Çanakkale by evaluating the nature-based tourism industry in the general of Turkey and assessing the natural-cultural resources that Çanakkale comprehends. The most important areas that have a nature-based tourism potential in Çanakkale and the tourism activities that are most suitable for these areas have been determined.     

Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Assessing the role of consumers in sustainable product policies

A global analysis shows that considerable forces contribute nowadays to the perpetuation of the so-called “developed” model of consumption, and its extension to growing parts of the world, despite reiterated calls for “modification of production and consumption patterns”. Environmental product regulation can be situated in this general perspective. This paper returns to the framing of policies devoted to ecologically sustainable consumption, taking the example of the Integrated product policy at the European level. How are the objectives of such policies defined? What instruments are privileged? Comparing theoretical approaches with policy design, we focus on the role devoted to consumers in these contexts. Bringing in literature evidence, survey results and findings from an original study, we argue that appropriate knowledge of the diversity of consumers’ attitudes and about the limitations of their possible actions is not properly taken into account in product policies, notably when information and voluntary tools are dominant. From this point of view, environmental product regulations are well justified, but they should, as all policy instruments implicating consumers, take careful notice of their situation.     

Ecological Function Zoning for Environmental Planning at Different Levels

Environmental planning at different levels has been called for by environmental departments in China during last years to integrate environment consideration to economic development. Based on the accomplished environmental planning practice in Xiamen China, the paper suggests a general environmental planning process with ecological function zoning as its key steps, at the same time an effective method for ecological function zoning was formulated. The case studies of Dongfu suburban town environmental planning and Xiamen eco-city conceptual planning indicate that scientifically sound results of ecological function zoning can contribute to improving not only the adaptability and acceptability of environmental planning, also the environmental management and the decision-making. The experience shows that the ecological function zoning methods should be applied according to the principles of adaptive management, resource-based and community-based, so that it can integrate science into decision-making process, avoiding both narrow-minded viewpoints of planners and natural resource use conflicts among variety of stakeholders. Problems to be resolved in the future are also pointed out in the ending part.     

Sustainable tourism development in remote regions? Questions arising from research in the North Kimberley,Australia

This paper is concerned with the sustainable development of a self-drive tourist destination in the remote region in Northern Australia. It first compares officially used data on visitor profiles to the information collected in the survey. Differences between data collected and available secondary data imply that tourism planning should include collection of region-specific tourism information to guide and mitigate potential environmental changes. Natural landscape features are the key attraction for visitors to the region. Visitor satisfaction levels with the current state of the destination are high. However, local residents reported perceived negative impacts of tourism, in particular on amenities and the ecology of the landscape. Visitors also reported behavior that might contribute to environmental impacts. Implications of the findings, in the context of future destination planning, are discussed.     

ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC LOADS ON LANDSCAPES AS A TOOL TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINABLE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT: CASE STUDY FROM AZERBAIJAN

In order to determine the potential for sustainable regional development of the Caspian coastal zone, a study was made for the Khachmaz–Absheron zone of Azerbaijan. An evaluation was performed to assess the anthropogenic load on landscapes. Using the 8-point scale offered by Isachenko [2001, Ecological Geography of Russia, Saint Petersburg University Press, Saint Petersburg] for the indicators of agricultural, industrial, urban and integral anthropogenic loads, we did a preliminary ranking of the provinces in the Khachmaz–Absheron zone of Azerbaijan for the each indicator taken separately. Vital statistics were used as a supplementary indicator of environmental conditions in the region. By comparing the data for provinces with each other and the data on Azerbaijan average, we have classified the provinces into 4 groups according to specific combinations of the indicators. Each group of provinces has distinctive environmental conditions and features for sustainable development. The classification makes it possible to develop certain recommendations for the regional sustainable development. Measures to be implemented within the Azerbaijan State Program on Social and Economic Development of Regions are also discussed. In the Khachmaz province, production of ecologically pure products is highly recommended. Special attention should be given to the development of tourism and recreational institutions in the Khachmaz, Khizi and Devechi provinces. Recommendations for these provinces include further development of industry on the basis of modern safe technologies. The irrigation and drainage networks should be reconstructed. The reconstruction will make it possible to reduce water loss and to increase the productivity of agriculture. In the Absheron province, Baku and Sumgait cities environmental systems are overloaded, and so the works at highly polluting enterprises must be stopped, the enterprises have to be re-equipped (old filters must be changed first of all) or relocated from the area (a decrease of environmental risk should be in the focus of attention). For improving of air quality, green areas should increase. There is a need to reduce urban traffic density and to reconstruct highways. Use of old vehicles must be forbidden or restricted, and transition to environmentally friendly fuel should be supported in every way possible. It is necessary to bring the waste management system and sanitary landfills up to international standards, and to improve the water supply and sewerage systems.     

A “measurable” definition of sustainable development based on closed cycles of resources and its application to energy systems

Human society consumes resources that it is not able to reproduce. Human activities are still based on “open cycles,” starting from a condition of natural environmental balance and reaching an environmental imbalance. The challenging scope of scientific and technological research towards sustainability appears clear if it is based on this analysis: to find development systems based on “closed cycles” of resources. The challenging objective of realizing closed cycles leads to a definition of sustainability that indicates the path to sustainable development, as well as stating the general principle. It also provides a key to the qualitative measurement of sustainability. This means that the sustainability level of a system can be measured by measuring its capacity to avoid the consumption of resources. Zero consumption is a necessary condition for sustainability, and brings about as a side effect the highly desired “zero-waste” result. Materials entering the proposed endless scheme pass through the process of usefulness without losing their capacity to feed the system again after being used. Thus, the concept of “consumption” itself is replaced by one of “use” when resources are inserted into closed loops capable of feeding human development. The application of the closed cycle sustainability criterion particularly displays its feasibility, and a theoretical guiding role, in the energy sector. Energy vectors such as hydrogen and electricity enable the closure of the energy resources loop by effectively approaching the objective of “zero consumption” (and the side result of “zero waste”) through already demonstrated technological solutions.