State-specific detection probabilities and disease prevalence.

Investigations of disease dynamics in wild animal populations often use estimated prevalence or incidence as a measure of true disease frequency. Such indices, almost always based solely on raw counts of infected and uninfected individuals, are often used as the basis for analysis of temporal and spatial dynamics of diseases. Generally, such studies do not account for potential differences in observer detection probabilities of host individuals stratified by biotic and/or abiotic factors. We demonstrate the potential effects of heterogeneity in state-specific detection probabilities on estimated disease prevalence using mark-recapture data from previous work in a House Finch (Carpodacus mexicanus) and Mycoplasma gallisepticum system. In this system, detection probabilities of uninfected finches were generally higher than infected individuals. We show that the magnitude and seasonal pattern of variation in estimated prevalence, corrected for differences in detection probabilities, differed markedly from uncorrected (apparent) prevalence. When the detection probability of uninfected individuals is higher than infected individuals (as in our study), apparent prevalence is negatively biased, and vice versa. In situations where state-specific detection probabilities strongly interact over time, we show that the magnitude and pattern of apparent prevalence can change dramatically; in such cases, observed variations in prevalence may be completely spurious artifacts of variation in detection probability, rather than changes in underlying disease dynamics. Accounting for differential detection probabilities in estimates of disease frequency removes a potentially confounding factor in studies seeking to identify biotic and/or abiotic drivers of disease dynamics. Given that detection probabilities of different groups of individuals are likely to change temporally and spatially in most field studies, our results underscore the importance of estimating and incorporating detection probabilities in estimated disease prevalence (specifically), and more generally, any ecological index used to estimate some parameter of interest. While a mark-recapture approach makes it possible to estimate detection probabilities, it is not always practical, especially at large scales. We discuss several alternative approaches and categorize the assumptions under which analysis of uncorrected prevalence may be acceptable.     

Hazardous waste management and community involvement in Canada: the case of Montreal's rural-urban fringe

The urban fringe is recognized as the arena of many conflicts involving land uses and values. The development and operation of hazardous waste facilities give rise to numerous conflicts and confrontations. An analysis of three cases in Montreal's rural-urban fringe based on a review of articles in the regional press demonstrates the utility of a common conceptual framework based on the awareness cycle which is represented in five phases. The application of the sustainable development concept to the hazardous wastes issue requires adopting approaches emphasizing participation of all the actors and interests involved, right from project design to the closure and dismantling of the facility. The fundamental challenge is that of promoting the excellence of the various stakeholders in terms of the quality of their participation in order to achieve sustainable acceptability of the project, often in a modified form compared to its initial conception.Dr Pierre André is Assistant Professor and Dr Christopher R. Bryant is Full Professor in the Département de Géographie, Université de Montreal. Romain Coté has completed an MSc degree in the Hygiène du milieu et de l'environnement programme at the Université de Montreal.     

Aluminium and Alzheimer's disease: An epidemiological approach

Epidemiological methods have an important role in the investigation of the postulated connection between exposure to aluminium and the development of Alzheimer's disease. We have examined the usefulness of existing data on prevalence and mortality as a resource for studying variations in the rate of the disease with time and geography. Unfortunately, methodological differences between prevalence surveys and errors and biases in mortality data are large. No reliable conclusions can be drawn from these data about geographical differences in rates of dementia in England and Wales nor about time trends in the disease.Aluminium salts are widely used in the UK for the treatment of drinking water. Residual aluminium concentrations vary more than ten fold between different parts of the country. We have estimated diagnostic rates of pre-senile Alzheimer's disease in seven geographical areas and examined the correlation between rates of Alzheimer's disease and water aluminium concentration.     

Environmental management of oak wilt disease in central texas

Oak wilt disease, for which there is no known cure, is one of the most destructive tree killers in the United States today. This analysis reports on the patterns of disease transmission, along with the methods of treatment used to suppress the severity of the pathogen's attack on trees in central Texas. The practical problems inherent in the linkage between people and their relationship with this environmental disorder are addressed. The environmental controls implemented have application to other areas of the United States and western Europe, where tree species are subject to infections.     

Work—family conflict: A comparison of dual-career and traditional-career men

This research examines differences in the antecedents and consequences of work—family conflict — a form of interrole conflict that occurs when the demands of work and family are mutually incompatible in some respect — for two groups of career-oriented men: those with a homemaker wife (called traditional-career men) and those with a spouse in a career-oriented job (labelled dual-career men). Using a model built on the work of Kopelman, Greenhaus and Connolly (1983), the responses from 136 dual-career men and 137 traditional-career men were compared. The primary conclusion of this research is that maternal career employment has a significant effect on the antecedents of work — family conflict. Dual-career men appear to experience a significant negative spillover from their work domain. We suggest that this spillover is due to a lack of structural flexibility in the workplace, outdated organizational policies that operate on the myth of separate worlds' and a lack of social support for the male dual-career role which contradicts societal norms.     

Provincial development plans in Zimbabwe: an analysis of their content,structure and methodology

Zimbabwean provincial plans were instituted to help in the achievement of the national goal of the creation of an egalitarian, socialist and integrated society. The national goal itself was adopted as an antithesis to the dualist society characterised by spatial, economic, social, politican and technological inequalities that Zimbabwe inherited from colonialism. This meant that provincial plans had to play both a functional (or growth allocating/distribution) and a territorial (or redistribution) role.

This paper reviews their role in achieving the national goal by examining their functions, content, structure and methodology. The paper concludes that because of their nature, provincial plans are not suitable tools for the achievement of the national goal.     

Time series analysis of elemental and isotopic data from biomineralized whale tissue

A temporal record of environmental conditions is often contained within accretionary biological tissue. These records can provide knowledge of the environmental conditions that existed at the time the tissue was formed. In this study, we look at trace element concentrations and isotopic ratios of carbon and nitrogen as contained in baleen from bowhead whales in the eastern and western Arctic Ocean. Time series techniques, including maximum likelihood method and likelihood ratio tests, are applied to analysis of data and inference about their mean structures.     

Spontaneous resolution of a cystic hygroma in a fetus with Turner syndrome

The prenatal detection of a cystic hygroma (CH) in a fetus with a 45,X karyotype is described. The cystic hygroma underwent spontaneous resolution and a healthy baby with Turner syndrome was subsequently born. The implications for genetic counselling are discussed.