WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING IN REAL-TIME1

ABSTRACT: A strategy is developed for making seasonal water supply forecasts in real time. It links the traditional regression based forecasting techniques to real-time data acquired by systems such as the Soil Conservation Service SNOTEL and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Hydromet networks. The concept is based on interpolating between the forecast values obtained by using real-time data in the forecast equations that bracket the real time. Different interpolation procedures were examined and the procedure for calculating confidence intervals about the forecast estimates is developed. The entire conceptual procedure is demonstrated using data from the Reynolds Creek, Idaho, experimental watershed maintained by the USDA-ARS Northwest Watershed Research Center in Boise, Idaho.     

Reducing primary and secondary impact loads on the pelvis during side impact

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to determine which vehicle factors are significantly related to pelvic injury in side impact collisions. Identification of relevant parameters could aid in the reduction of these injuries. METHOD: Side impact crashes from the CIREN database were separated into those in which the occupant sustained a pelvic fracture and those in which no pelvic fracture occurred, although all occupants had serious injuries. A multibody MADYMO model was created of a USDOT SINCAP (U.S. Department of Transportation Side Impact New Car Assessment Program) test of a vehicle with a large center console. RESULTS: From a study of 113 side impact crashes in the ciren database, nearside occupants with pelvic fractures (n = 78) had (i) more door intrusion (mean, 37 vs. 32 cm, p = 0.02) than those who had serious injuries, but not pelvic fractures (ii) a greater likelihood that the lower border of the door intruded more than the upper part (40% vs. 18%, p < 0.025); and (iii) a greater likelihood that their vehicle had a center console (47 vs. 17%, p < 0.005). Other parameters such as occupant age, weight, gender, vehicle weight, and struck vehicle speed change were not significantly different. MADYMO modeling showed that with a center console, an initial positive pelvic acceleration occurred at about 30 msec, followed at about 45 msec by a second acceleration peak in the opposite direction. Reducing console stiffness reduced the second acceleration but not the initial peak. Allowing the seat to translate laterally when contacted by the door reduced the initial pelvic acceleration by 50% and eliminated the second acceleration peak. CONCLUSIONS: Redesigning the center console using less stiff materials and allowing some lateral translation of the seat could aid in reducing pelvic injuries in side impact collisions.     

Metabolism of acetaminophen (paracetamol) in plants—two independent pathways result in the formation of a glutathione and a glucose conjugate

Background, aim, and scope  Pharmaceuticals and their metabolites are detected in the aquatic environment and our drinking water supplies. The need for high quality drinking water is one of the most challenging problems of our times, but still only little knowledge exists on the impact of these compounds on ecosystems, animals, and man. Biological waste water treatment in constructed wetlands is an effective and low-cost alternative, especially for the treatment of non-industrial, municipal waste water. In this situation, plants get in contact with pharmaceutical compounds and have to tackle their detoxification. The mechanisms for the detoxification of xenobiotics in plants are closely related to the mammalian system. An activation reaction (phase I) is followed by a conjugation (phase II) with hydrophilic molecules like glutathione or glucose. Phase III reactions can be summarized as storage, degradation, and transport of the xenobiotic conjugate. Until now, there is no information available on the fate of pharmaceuticals in plants. In this study, we want to investigate the fate and metabolism of N-acetyl-4-aminophenol (paracetamol) in plant tissues using the cell culture of Armoracia rusticana L. as a model system. Materials and methods  A hairy root culture of A. rusticana was treated with acetaminophen in a liquid culture. The formation and identification of metabolites over time were analyzed using HPLC-DAD and LC–MSⁿ techniques. Results  With LC–MS technique, we were able to detect paracetamol and identify three of its metabolites in root cells of A. rusticana. Six hours after incubation with 1 mM of acetaminophen, the distribution of acetaminophen and related metabolites in the cells resulted in 18% paracetamol, 64% paracetamol–glucoside, 17% paracetamol glutathione, and 1% of the corresponding cysteine conjugate. Discussion  The formation of two independently formed metabolites in plant root cells again revealed strong similarities between plant and mammalian detoxification systems. The detoxification mechanism of glucuronization in mammals is mirrored by glucosidation of xenobiotics in plants. Furthermore, in both systems, a glutathione conjugate is formed. Due to the existence of P450 enzymes in plants, the formation of the highly reactive NAPQI intermediate is possible. Conclusions  In this study, we introduce the hairy root cell culture of A. rusticana L. as a suitable model system to study the fate of acetaminophen in plant tissues. Our first results point to the direction of plants being able to take up and detoxify the model substrate paracetamol. These first findings underline the great potential of using plants for waste water treatments in constructed wetlands. Recommendations and perspectives  This very first study on the detoxification of a widely used antipyretic agent in plant tissues again shows the flexibility of plant detoxification systems and their potential in waste water treatment facilities. This study covers only the very first steps of acetaminophen detoxification in plants; still, there is no data on long-term exposure as well as the possible impact of pharmaceuticals on the plant health and stress defense. Long-term experiments need to be performed to follow the fate of acetaminophen in root and leaf cells in a whole plant system, and to evaluate possible usage of plants for the remediation of acetaminophen from waste water.     

Pesticide transport pathways from a sloped Litchi orchard to an adjacent tropical stream as identified by hydrograph separation

This study was performed to identify the transport pathways of pesticides from a sloped litchi ( Sonn.) orchard to a nearby stream based on a three-component hydrograph separation (baseflow, interflow, surface runoff). Dissolved silica and electrical conductivity were chosen as representative tracers. During the study period (30 d), 0.4 and 0.01% of the applied mass of atrazine and chlorpyrifos, respectively, were detected in the stream after 151 mm of rainfall. Baseflow (80-96%) was the dominant hydrological flow component, followed by interflow (3-18%) and surface runoff (1-7%). Despite its small contribution to total discharge, surface runoff was the dominant atrazine transport pathway during the first days after application because pesticide concentrations in the surface runoff flow component declined quickly within several days. Preferential transport with interflow became the dominant pathway of atrazine. Because chlorpyrifos was detected in the stream water only twice, it was not included in the hydrograph separation. A feature of the surface runoff pathway was the coincidence of pesticide and discharge peaks. In contrast, peak concentrations of pesticides transported by interflow occurred during the hydrograph recession phases. Stormflow generation and pesticide transport depended on antecedent rainfall. The combination of high-resolution pesticide concentration measurements with a three-component hydrograph separation has been shown to be a suitable method to identify pesticide transport pathways under tropical conditions.     

Sensitivity analysis and evaluation of MicroFacPM: a microscale motor vehicle emission factor model for particulate matter emissions

A microscale emission factor model (MicroFacPM) for predicting real-time site-specific motor vehicle particulate matter emissions was presented in the companion paper titled "Development of a Microscale Emission Factor Model for Particulate Matter (MicroFacPM) for Predicting Real-Time Motor Vehicle Emissions". The emission rates discussed are in mass per unit distance with the model providing estimates of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and coarse particulate matter. This paper complements the companion paper by presenting a sensitivity analysis of the model to input variables and evaluation model outputs using data from limited field studies. The sensitivity analysis has shown that MicroFacPM emission estimates are very sensitive to vehicle fleet composition, speed, and the percentage of high-emitting vehicles. The vehicle fleet composition can affect fleet emission rates from 8 mg/mi to 1215 mg/mi; an increase of 5% in the smoking (high-emitting) current average U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet (compared with 0%) increased PM2.5 emission rates by -272% for 2000; and for the current U.S. fleet, PM2.5 emission rates are reduced by a factor of -0.64 for speeds >50 miles per hour (mph) relative to a speed of 10 mph. MicroFacPM can also be applied to examine the contribution of emission rates per vehicle class, model year, and sources of PM. The model evaluation is presented for the Tuscarora Mountain Tunnel, Pennsylvania Turnpike, PA, and some limited evaluations at two locations: Sepulveda Tunnel, Los Angeles, CA, and Van Nuys Tunnel, Van Nuys, CA. In general, the performance of MicroFacPM has shown very encouraging results.     

探究性教学在大学语文课程中的运用——以讲授苏轼《水调歌头》一课为例

《大学语文》作为高职高专的一门公共基础课,因其丰富的人文内蕴、情感价值和审美趣味而承担了进一步提高大学生人文素质、增进文化修养的功能,从而培养大学生具有深厚人文精神的理想人格。在《大学语文》教学活动中开展探究性教学,既是教育改革全面实施素质教育的客观要求,也是大学生自我提升的内在需要。以讲授苏轼的《水调歌头·明月几时有》一课为例,阐述如何在高职高专《大学语文》课程的教学活动中引导和组织学生开展探究性教学。     

Coupling a settlement growth model with an agro-economic land allocation model for securing ecosystem services provision

Mountain landscapes are undergoing rapid land-use changes. Settlement expansion, the intensification of agricultural land-use practices, and farmland abandonment result in a decline of natural and semi-natural habitats and the related ecosystem services (ES). In this context, spatial planning has emerged as a key instrument for the management of ES provision. To better understand trade-offs and interactions between settlement growth and ES provision in a spatially explicit manner, we present a new modeling framework coupling an agent-based, agro-economic optimization model and a cellular-automata-based settlement growth model. The framework is applied in an inner alpine valley in the Valais, Switzerland, which experienced rapid settlement growth in recent years. Results demonstrate how the model framework allows support of local planning processes. Particularly cooperation among municipalities and an explicit consideration of ES can inform spatially explicit ES trade-off decisions under increasing demand for land. We conclude that better informed spatial planning processes support ES provision.     

Reallocating budgets among ongoing and emerging conservation projects

Conserving biodiversity and combating ecological hazards require cost-effective allocation of limited resources among potential management projects. Project priorities, however, can change over time as underlying social-ecological systems progress, novel priorities emerge, and management capabilities evolve. Thus, reallocation of ongoing investments in response to shifting priorities could improve management outcomes and address urgent demands, especially when additional funding is not available immediately. Resource reallocation, however, could incur transaction costs, require additional monitoring and reassessment, and be constrained by ongoing project commitments. Such complexities may prevent managers from considering potentially beneficial reallocation strategies, reducing long-term effectiveness. We propose an iterative project prioritization approach, based on marginal return-on-investment estimation and portfolio optimization, that guides resource reallocation among ongoing and new projects. Using simulation experiments in 2 case studies, we explored how this approach can improve efficacy under varying reallocation constraints, frequencies, costs, and rates of project portfolio change. Periodic budget reallocation could enhance the management of stochastically emerging invasive weeds in Australia and thus reduce the overall risk by up to 50% compared with a static budget. Reallocation frequency and the rate of new weed incursion synergistically increased the conservation gains achieved by allowing unconstrained reallocation. Conversely, budget reallocation would not improve the International Union for Conservation of Nature conservation status of threatened Australian birds due to slow rates of transition among conservation states; extinction risk could increase if portfolio reassessment is costly. Although other project prioritization studies may recommend periodic reassessment and reallocation, our findings revealed conditions when reallocation is valuable and demonstrated a structured approach that can help conservation agencies schedule and implement iterative budget-allocation decisions cost-effectively.     

Comparing wildlife habitat suitability models based on expert opinion with camera trap detections

Expert knowledge is used in the development of wildlife habitat suitability models (HSMs) for management and conservation decisions. However, the consistency of such models has been questioned. Focusing on 1 method for elicitation, the analytic hierarchy process, we generated expert-based HSMs for 4 felid species: 2 forest specialists (ocelot [Leopardus pardalis] and margay [Leopardus wiedii]) and 2 habitat generalist species (Pampas cat [Leopardus colocola] and puma [Puma concolor]). Using these HSMs, species detections from camera-trap surveys, and generalized linear models, we assessed the effect of study species and expert attributes on the correspondence between expert models and camera-trap detections. We also examined whether aggregation of participant responses and iterative feedback improved model performance. We ran 160 HSMs and found that models for specialist species showed higher correspondence with camera-trap detections (AUC [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve] >0.7) than those for generalists (AUC < 0.7). Model correspondence increased as participant years of experience in the study area increased, but only for the understudied generalist species, Pampas cat (β = 0.024 [SE 0.007]). No other participant attribute was associated with model correspondence. Feedback and revision of models improved model correspondence, and aggregating judgments across multiple participants improved correspondence only for specialist species. The average correspondence of aggregated judgments increased as group size increased but leveled off after 5 experts for all species. Our results suggest that correspondence between expert models and empirical surveys increases as habitat specialization increases. We encourage inclusion of participants knowledgeable of the study area and model validation for expert-based modeling of understudied and generalist species.