ABSTRACT: Dynamic linear models (DLM) and seasonal trend decomposition (STL) using local regression, or LOESS, were used to analyze the 50‐year time series of suspended sediment concentrations for the Yadkin River, measured at the U.S. Geological Survey station at Yadkin College, North Carolina. A DLM with constant trend, seasonality, and a log10 streamflow regressor provided the best model to predict monthly mean log10 suspended sediment concentrations, based on the forecast log likelihood. Using DLM, there was evidence (odds approximately 69:1) that the log10 streamflow versus log10 suspended sediment concentration relationship has changed, with an approximate 20 percent increase in the log10 streamflow coefficient over the period 1981 to 1996. However, sediment concentrations in the Yadkin River have decreased during the decade of the 1990s, which has been accompanied by a concomitant increase in streamflow variability. Although STL has been shown to be a versatile trend analysis technique, DLM is shown to be more suitable for discovery and inference of structural changes (trends) in the model coefficient describing the relationship between flow and sediment concentration. 相似文献
ABSTRACT: The objective of this study was to examine the chemistry of Coalbed Methane (CBM) discharge water reacting with semi‐arid ephemeral stream channels in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming. The study area consisted of two ephemeral streams: Burger Draw and Sue Draw. These streams are tributaries to the perennial Powder River. Samples were collected bimonthly from three CBM discharge points and seven channel locations in Burger Draw and Sue Draw. Samples were also collected bimonthly from the Powder River above and below the confluence of Burger Draw. Before sample collection, the pH and electrical conductivity (EC) were measured in the field. Samples were transported to the laboratory and analyzed for alkalinity, major cations, and anions. From the measurement of sodium (Na), calcium (Ca), and magnesium (Mg), practical sodium adsorption ratio (SARp) and true sodium adsorption ratio (SARt) were calculated. Results suggest pH and EC of CBM discharge water was 7.1 and 4.3 dS/m, respectively. The CBM discharge water consisted of higher concentrations of sodium and alkalinity compared to other components. The pH of CBM discharge water increased significantly (p = 0.000) in the downstream channel of Burger Draw from 7.1 to 8.84 before it joined with the Powder River. Dissolved calcium concentration of CBM discharge water decreased significantly (p = 0.000) in the downstream channel water. Subsequently, SARp increased approximately from 24 to 29. The SARt also increased significantly (p = 0.001) in the downstream channel water. For instance, SARt of CBM discharge water increased from 32.93 to 45.5 downstream channels after the confluence of Sue Draw with the Burger Draw. The only significant difference in water chemistry above and below the confluence of Burger Draw with the Powder River was pH, which increased from 8.36 to 8.52. The significant increase in SAR values of CBM discharge water in Burger Draw and Sue Draw tributaries suggest a careful monitoring of salinity and sodicity is needed if CBM discharge water is used for irrigation in semi‐arid environments. Results discussed in this study will be useful to downstream water users who depend on water for irrigation. 相似文献
The applications of chlorine have been broadly used in many industrial products, such as bleaching agents, synthetic rubbers, plastics, disinfectants, iron chlorides, fire refractory materials, insecticides, and anti-freezers, etc. According to the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (TEPA), more than 30 thousand tons were used in the year 2000. In addition, there were more than 12 reported incidents from 2000 to 2003—mostly on using chlorine as disinfectants (five) and as process agents (four).
This study investigated 15 chlorine operation plants in central Taiwan. These chlorine usages included bleaching agents, disinfectants, iron chloride, synthesizing rubber plastics, and others. Thirteen plants were located in the industrial parks and two were in or near residential zones. The consequence analysis were used three different methods to analyze the worst-case scenarios (WCSs) and alternative release case scenarios (ACSs) in order to compare impact zones for applying various active and passive mitigation systems, such as confined space, scrubber, water-spray, and so no. For two plants in or near residential zones, multi-layers mitigation systems and operation limits should be implemented in order to enforce more stringent protection measures. However, there was no specific regulation for chlorine plants operated at different locations, such as industrial parks or residential zones. In order to reduce chemical accidents and their impacts on public safety, our results suggest that source mitigation/management and warning systems should be adopted simultaneously. 相似文献
Critical N loads for ombrotrophic bogs, which often contain rare and N-sensitive plants (especially those in lower plant groups: lichens, mosses and liverworts), are based on very few experimental data from measured, low background N deposition areas. Additionally the relative effects of reduced versus oxidised N are largely unknown. This paper describes an automated field exposure system (30 km S. of Edinburgh, Scotland) for treating ombrotrophic bog vegetation with fine droplets of oxidised N (NaNO3) and reduced N (NH4Cl). Whim Moss exists in an area of low ambient N deposition (ca. 8 kg N ha?1 y?1), the sources and quantification of which are described. The wet N treatment system is run continuously, and is controlled/activated by wind speed and rainfall to provide a unique simulation of “real worl” treatment patterns (no rain=no treatment). Simulated precipitation is supplied at ionic concentrations below 4 mM in rainwater collected on site. Treatments provide a replicated dose response to 16, 32 and 64 kg N ha?1 y?1 adjusted for ambient deposition (8 kg N ha?1 y?1). The 16 and 64 kg N ha?1 y?1 are duplicated with a P+K supplement. Baseline soil chemistry and foliar nutrient status was established for all 44 plots for Calluna vulgaris, Sphagnum capillifolium, Hypnum jutlandicum and Cladonia portentosa.相似文献
A field ammonia (NH3) release experiment and open top chambers containing moorland monoliths continuously fumigated with NH3 or sprayed with NH4Cl were used to assess the potential for using δ15N values in determining the area of influence around a point NH3 emission source. δ15N values are being increasingly used as environmental tracers and we tested the hypothesis that the δ15N signal from an NH3 emission source is observable in nearby vegetation. Using modified monitoring devices, atmospheric NH3 concentrations were found to decrease with distance from source, with δ15N values also reflecting this trend, producing a signal shift with changing concentration. Open top chamber studies of δ15N values of Calluna vulgaris (L.) Hull indicated a correlation with deposition treatments in current year shoots. Analysis of Calluna shoots from the NH3 release showed a similar trend of δ15N enrichment. Significant linear correlations between δ15N and percent N in plant material were found, both in the controlled conditions of the open top chambers and at the NH3 release site, illustrating the possible use of this technique in N deposition biomonitoring. 相似文献
The results from three long-term field manipulation studies of the impacts of increased nitrogen deposition (0–120 kg N ha?1 yr?1) on lowland and upland heathlands in the UK were compared, to test if common responses are observed. Consistent increases in Calluna foliar N content and decreases in litter C:N ratios were found across all sites, while increases in N leaching were not observed at any site over the range 0–80 kg ha?1 yr?1. However, the response of Calluna biomass did vary between sites, possibly reflecting site differences in nutrient status and management histories. Five versions of a simulation model of heathland responses to N were developed, each reflecting different assumptions about the fate and turnover of soil N. Model outputs supported the deduction from mass balance calculations at two of the field sites that N additions have resulted in an increase in immobilisation; the latter was needed to prevent the model overestimating measured N leaching. However, this version of the model significantly underestimated Calluna biomass. Model versions, which included uptake of organic N by Callunaand re-mobilisation of N from the soil organic store provided some improvement in the fit between modelled and field biomass data, but re-mobilisation also led to an overestimation of N leaching. Quantification of these processes and their response to increased N deposition are therefore critical to interpreting experimental data and predicting the long-term impacts of atmospheric deposition on heathlands and moorlands. 相似文献
Model estimates of NOy and NHx deposition across Britain for 1996 (5 km square resolution) were applied as explanatory variables to account for national-scale, fine-grained changes in plant species composition between 1990 and 1998. Plant species data were recorded from up to 27 fixed plots located within a stratified random sample of 596 1 km2. The response variable was a cover-weighted Ellenberg fertility score for each plot. Analyses were carried out separately for woodlands, semi-natural grasslands and heaths/bogs. Most of the variation in the botanical response variable occurred between plots within squares and so could not be explained by the model deposition data. NHx deposition estimates accounted for significant, but small components of between 1 km2 variation in the change in Ellenberg score in grasslands (5.6%) and heath/bogs (9.8%) but not woodlands. NOy deposition estimates were not significantly associated with vegetation change. Linear models provided the best fit and the slope of the relationship was lower for heath/bogs than grasslands. Further signal attribution at sub-kilometre square scales requires the development of fine-grained models of N deposition that can be generalised across regional sampling domains. 相似文献