A framework for adaptive monitoring of the cumulative effects of human footprint on biodiversity

Effective ecological monitoring is imperative in a human-dominated world, as our ability to manage functioning ecosystems will depend on understanding biodiversity responses to anthropogenic impacts. Yet, most monitoring efforts have either been narrowly focused on particular sites, species and stressors — thus inadequately considering the cumulative effects of multiple, interacting impacts at scales of management relevance — or too unfocused to provide specific guidance. We propose a cumulative effects monitoring framework that integrates multi-scaled surveillance of trends in biodiversity and land cover with targeted evaluation of hypothesized drivers of change. The framework is grounded in a flexible conceptual model and uses monitoring to generate and test empirical models that relate the status of diverse taxonomic groups to the nature and extent of human “footprint” and other landscape attributes. An adaptive cycle of standardized sampling, model development, and model evaluation provides a means to learn about the system and guide management. Additional benefits of the framework include standardized data on status and trend for a wide variety of biodiversity elements, spatially explicit models for regional planning and scenario evaluation, and identification of knowledge gaps for complementary research. We describe efforts to implement the framework in Alberta, Canada, through the Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute, and identify key challenges to be addressed.     

Comparing wildlife habitat suitability models based on expert opinion with camera trap detections

Expert knowledge is used in the development of wildlife habitat suitability models (HSMs) for management and conservation decisions. However, the consistency of such models has been questioned. Focusing on 1 method for elicitation, the analytic hierarchy process, we generated expert-based HSMs for 4 felid species: 2 forest specialists (ocelot [Leopardus pardalis] and margay [Leopardus wiedii]) and 2 habitat generalist species (Pampas cat [Leopardus colocola] and puma [Puma concolor]). Using these HSMs, species detections from camera-trap surveys, and generalized linear models, we assessed the effect of study species and expert attributes on the correspondence between expert models and camera-trap detections. We also examined whether aggregation of participant responses and iterative feedback improved model performance. We ran 160 HSMs and found that models for specialist species showed higher correspondence with camera-trap detections (AUC [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve] >0.7) than those for generalists (AUC < 0.7). Model correspondence increased as participant years of experience in the study area increased, but only for the understudied generalist species, Pampas cat (β = 0.024 [SE 0.007]). No other participant attribute was associated with model correspondence. Feedback and revision of models improved model correspondence, and aggregating judgments across multiple participants improved correspondence only for specialist species. The average correspondence of aggregated judgments increased as group size increased but leveled off after 5 experts for all species. Our results suggest that correspondence between expert models and empirical surveys increases as habitat specialization increases. We encourage inclusion of participants knowledgeable of the study area and model validation for expert-based modeling of understudied and generalist species.     

Use of stochastic patch occupancy models in the California red-legged frog for Bayesian inference regarding past events and future persistence

Assessing causes of population decline is critically important to management of threatened species. Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are popular tools for examining spatial and temporal dynamics of populations when presence–absence data in multiple habitat patches are available. We developed a Bayesian Markov chain method that extends existing SPOMs by focusing on past environmental changes that may have altered occupancy patterns prior to the beginning of data collection. Using occupancy data from 3 creeks, we applied the method to assess 2 hypothesized causes of population decline—in situ die-off and residual impact of past source population loss—in the California red-legged frog. Despite having no data for the 20–30 years between the hypothetical event leading to population decline and the first data collected, we were able to discriminate among hypotheses, finding evidence that in situ die-off increased in 2 of the creeks. Although the creeks had comparable numbers of occupied segments, owing to different extinction–colonization dynamics, our model predicted an 8-fold difference in persistence probabilities of their populations to 2030. Adding a source population led to a greater predicted persistence probability than did decreasing the in situ die-off, emphasizing that reversing the deleterious impacts of a disturbance may not be the most efficient management strategy. We expect our method will be useful for studying dynamics and evaluating management strategies of many species.     

大孤山铁矿边坡爆破损伤分区研究

露天矿生产爆破,特别是靠帮爆破在边坡中形成的爆破损伤区对其稳定性具有很大的影响。本文针对大孤山铁矿露天爆破开采的实际情况,建立了极限平衡数值分析模型及峰值速度衰减公式。利用数值分析软件Geoslope对边坡靠帮爆破过程中岩体损伤范围进行了研究,主要分析了在爆破-200--212m水平时,爆破震动对边坡岩体的影响,并利用萨道夫斯基公式和PPV安全判据对爆区周围岩体损伤范围进行了计算。结果表明距离炮孔6.2m以内范围为完全破碎区,6.2-12.4m为岩体重度损伤区,12.4-19.7m为轻微损伤区。数值分析表明距爆源同一距离的岩体质点峰值速度随深度的增加而减小,爆破区周围震动波速成漏斗形分布,同实际爆破情况吻合。     

Terrestrial, benthic, and pelagic resource use in lakes: results from a three-isotope Bayesian mixing model

Fluxes of organic matter across habitat boundaries are common in food webs. These fluxes may strongly influence community dynamics, depending on the extent to which they are used by consumers. Yet understanding of basal resource use by consumers is limited, because describing trophic pathways in complex food webs is difficult. We quantified resource use for zooplankton, zoobenthos, and fishes in four low-productivity lakes, using a Bayesian mixing model and measurements of hydrogen, carbon, and nitrogen stable isotope ratios. Multiple sources of uncertainty were explicitly incorporated into the model. As a result, posterior estimates of resource use were often broad distributions; nevertheless, clear patterns were evident. Zooplankton relied on terrestrial and pelagic primary production, while zoobenthos and fishes relied on terrestrial and benthic primary production. Across all consumer groups terrestrial reliance tended to be higher, and benthic reliance lower, in lakes where light penetration was low due to inputs of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon. These results support and refine an emerging consensus that terrestrial and benthic support of lake food webs can be substantial, and they imply that changes in the relative availability of basal resources drive the strength of cross-habitat trophic connections.     

Mapping Hotspots of Threatened Species Traded in Bushmeat Markets in the Cross–Sanaga Rivers Region

Bushmeat markets exist in many countries in West and Central Africa, and data on species sold can be used to detect patterns of wildlife trade in a region. We surveyed 89 markets within the Cross–Sanaga rivers region, West Africa. In each market, we counted the number of carcasses of each taxon sold. During a 6‐month period (7594 market days), 44 mammal species were traded. Thirteen species were on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List or protected under national legislation, and at least 1 threatened species was traded in 88 of the 89 markets. We used these data to identify market groups that traded similar species assemblages. Using cluster analyses, we detected 8 market groups that were also geographically distinct. Market groups differed in the diversity of species, evenness of species, and dominant, prevalent, and characteristic species traded. We mapped the distribution of number of threatened species traded across the study region. Most threatened species were sold in markets nearest 2 national parks, Korup National Park in Cameroon and Cross River in Nigeria. To assess whether the threatened‐species trade hotspots coincided with the known ranges of these species, we mapped the overlap of all threatened species traded. Markets selling more threatened species overlapped with those regions that had higher numbers of these. Our study can provide wildlife managers in the region with better tools to discern zones within which to focus policing efforts and reduce threats to species that are threatened by the bushmeat trade. Mapeo de Sitios Críticos para Especies Amenazadas Comercializadas en Mercados de Vida Silvestre en la Región de los Ríos Cross‐Sanaga     

Short-term activity cycles in ants: age-related changes in tempo and colony synchrony

Summary This paper examines the characteristics of the spontaneous acivity levels of individual worker ants of Leptothorax allardycei and explores the influence of spontaneous worker activity on colony activity patterns. While there are substantial differences among workers in the characteristics of their spontaneous activity, all of the variation occurs within the colony. There are virtually no differences in the levels of spontaneous activity between colonies. Variation among workers is due to age; workers decline exponentially in their probability of becoming active, p _a ,at a rate of -0.02 per day. I built computer models under four different sets of assumptions about the spontaneous activity patterns of workers, and performed simulations to test the ability of colonies of simulated workers to synchronize their movement activity. The most realistic results are obtained with models in which workers already have an underlying propensity to oscillate and which interact with one another to produce Type 1 phase resetting. The simulations generate predictions concerning the ability of colonies to synchronize, the most significant of which is that the average age of workers in a colony is very important in determining the extent of colony synchrony, while the distribution of ages is not.     

Research and development to improve naval shipboard waste management using a compact closed-loop-controlled waste incinerator

Research has been conducted into the application of forced acoustics for enhancing the performance of a pyrolyzed waste afterburner configured as a dump combustor. Subscale studies showed that acoustic forcing of an air jet entering a dump chamber could trigger the formation of coherent vortices generated by entrainment of ambient gases. Subsequent studies showed that combustible gases could be introduced into the coherent vortices, and with additional modulation this configuration would lead to an enhanced combustion rate with low emissions of pollutants. The acoustically forced burner concept was scaled up to practical levels and tested as an afterburner on a commercial waste incinerator operating in pyrolysis mode. Results show that the afterburner can promote both compactness, due to the rapid combustion rate, and low pollutant emissions resulting from enhanced mixing prior to combustion.