Neighborhood Level Spatial Analysis of the Relationship Between Alcohol Outlet Density and Criminal Violence

Misuse of alcohol is a significant public health problem, potentially resulting in unintentional injuries, motor vehicle crashes, drownings, and, perhaps of greatest concern, serious acts of violence, including assaults, rapes, suicides, and homicides. Although previous research establishes a link between alcohol consumption increased levels of violence, studies relating the density of alcohol outlets (e.g., restaurants, bars, liquor stores) and the likelihood of violent crime have been less common. In this paper we test for such a relationship at the small area level, using data from 79 neighborhoods in the city of Minneapolis, Minnesota. We adopt a fully Bayesian point of view using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) computational methods as available in the popular and freely available WinBUGS language. Our models control for important covariates (e.g., neighborhood racial heterogeneity, age heterogeneity) and also account for spatial association in unexplained variability using conditionally autoregressive (CAR) random effects. Our results indicate a significant positive relationship between alcohol outlet density and violent crime, while also permitting easy mapping of neighborhood-level predicted and residual values, the former useful for intervention in the most at-risk neighborhoods and the latter potentially useful in identifying covariates still missing from the fixed effects portion of the model.     

The use of ultraviolet germicidal irradiation (UVGI) in disinfection of airborne bacteria

Contamination of indoor air by microbial pollutants has been increasingly recognized as a public health problem, and may be responsible for building-related illness (BRI) and sick-building syndrome (SBS). Bioaerosols such as fungi, bacteria, and viruses in indoor air can cause allergic and irritant responses, infectious diseases, respiratory problems, and hypersensitivity reactions. People sensitive to indoor environmental problems complain of a wide variety of symptoms ranging from headache, fatigue, nausea, sinus congestion, to eye, nose, and throat irritations.Although ultraviolet germicidal irradiation (UVGI) with a predominant wavelength of 254 nm has been used for air disinfection for many years to minimize microbial numbers in the air, few quantitative data are available on the radiation susceptibilities of individual airborne microbes. There have been a number of UVGI studies documenting the effectiveness of UVGI for the control of microbes in controlled settings. Many of these studies documented the effectiveness of UVGI against airborne tuberculosis organisms.The studies described here used commercial type fan-powered shielded UVGI-containing fixtures to evaluate their effectiveness in air disinfection. Aerosolization tests were done in the contained environment of a negative pressure bioaerosol stainless steel testing chamber 0.75 m wide·3.7 m long. The chamber was designed so that microbes could be safely aerosolized and contained while traversing the chamber through the UVGI-containing fix-tures. Four commercial (Purair UV Germicidal Systems, Mount Vernon, N.Y.) fan-powered UVGI-containing fix-tures placed in the chamber were individually evaluated for their ability to disinfect individual bioaerosols of air-borne bacteria.Air samples were taken at the inlet and outlet of the UVGI-containing units positioned in the bioaerosol chamber, using Ace Glass all-glass impingers (AGI-30). Five bacterial species were individually aerosolized to evaluate their kill. The bacteria used to test all of the UVGI-containing units were vegetative cells of Escherichia coli, Micrococcus luteus, Pseudomonas fluorescens, Staphylococcus aureus, and endospores of Bacillus subtilis. Based upon the concentration of bioaerosols collected at the inlet and outlet of the fixtures tested, the total overall microbial kills for the four fixtures with the filters in place and the UVGI units on were more than 99% for all the airborne vegetative bacteria tested, and a mean of over 75% for the B. subtilis endospores.All of the fixtures were efficient in the kill of the test vegetative bacteria used, even the more UVGI-resistant M. luteus vegetative cells and endospores of B. subtilis. Units such as these may provide an economical way to supplement existing air cleaning procedures used in indoor environments, and to kill airborne bacteria effectively without human exposure to UV light.     

Spatial PM2.5 mobile source impacts using a calibrated indicator method

Motor vehicles are major sources of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), and the PM_2.5 from mobile vehicles is associated with adverse health effects. Traditional methods for estimating source impacts that employ receptor models are limited by the availability of observational data. To better estimate temporally and spatially resolved mobile source impacts on PM_2.5, we developed an approach based on a method that uses elemental carbon (EC), carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen oxide (NO_x) measurements as an indicator of mobile source impacts. We extended the original integrated mobile source indicator (IMSI) method in three aspects. First, we generated spatially resolved indicators using 24-hr average concentrations of EC, CO, and NO_x estimated at 4 km resolution by applying a method developed to fuse chemical transport model (Community Multiscale Air Quality Model [CMAQ]) simulations and observations. Second, we used spatially resolved emissions instead of county-level emissions in the IMSI formulation. Third, we spatially calibrated the unitless indicators to annually-averaged mobile source impacts estimated by the receptor model Chemical Mass Balance (CMB). Daily total mobile source impacts on PM_2.5, as well as separate gasoline and diesel vehicle impacts, were estimated at 12 km resolution from 2002 to 2008 and 4 km resolution from 2008 to 2010 for Georgia. The total mobile and separate vehicle source impacts compared well with daily CMB results, with high temporal correlation (e.g., R ranges from 0.59 to 0.88 for total mobile sources with 4 km resolution at nine locations). The total mobile source impacts had higher correlation and lower error than the separate gasoline and diesel sources when compared with observation-based CMB estimates. Overall, the enhanced approach provides spatially resolved mobile source impacts that are similar to observation-based estimates and can be used to improve assessment of health effects.

Implications: An approach is developed based on an integrated mobile source indicator method to estimate spatiotemporal PM_2.5 mobile source impacts. The approach employs three air pollutant concentration fields that are readily simulated at 4 and 12 km resolutions, and is calibrated using PM_2.5 source apportionment modeling results to generate daily mobile source impacts in the state of Georgia. The estimated source impacts can be used in investigations of traffic pollution and health.     

An entitlement approach to the challenges of mangrove management in El Salvador

This paper summarizes those factors that have contributed to the degradation of the mangroves in El Salvador, and examines the implications of proposed changes in property rights to the mangroves for poor coastal communities. Current patterns of extraction and conversion in the mangrove ecosystem in El Salvador can be viewed through an entitlement lens that confers property right upon some actors, for certain uses, and denies them to others. Unfortunately, the present system of laws and regulations that governs resource use in the mangroves is contradictory and confusing. A number of laws currently are active that give entirely different directives about the use and transformation of the ecosystem. The rational and sustainable management of the mangroves cannot be secured without a redefinition of entitlement rights. This redefinition of entitlements, however, should take into account the needs of those whose livelihoods are intimately connected to the health of the ecosystem.     

Transformation and adsorption of Fenamiphos, f. sulfoxide and f. sulfone in molokai soil and simulated movement with irrigation

The ban of commonly used soil fumigants, DBCP and EDB, for control of nematodes in pineapple fields has prompted investigations into a non-fumigant nematicide, fenamiphos (Nemacur^®). The transformation and adsorption in soil of fenamiphos and its transformation products, f. sulfoxide and f. sulfone were studied in the laboratory. Fenamiphos adsorption on soil exceeded that of f. sulfoxide and f. sulfone. F. sulfoxide, however, was the most persistent. A one-dimensional simulation model was used to assess the impact of transformation and adsorption on the mobility and distribution of fenamiphos and f. sulfoxide in soil. Simulated results showed that fenamiphos stayed in the topsoil and transformed rapidly to f. sulfoxide. Because of the persistence and mobility of f. sulfoxide, this metabolite leached rapidly and significant amounts remained in the soil. This suggests that for times exceeding three weeks, f. sulfoxide may be the dominant compound providing nematode control in drip-irrigated pineapple.     

Use of Project MOHAVE perfluorocarbon tracer data to evaluate source and receptor models

Project MOHAVE was a major monitoring, modeling, and data analysis study whose objectives included the estimation of the contributions of the Mohave Power Project (MPP) and other sources to visibility impairment in the southwestern United States, in particular at Grand Canyon National Park. A major element of Project MOHAVE was the release of perfluorocarbon tracers at MPP and other locations during 50-day summer and 30-day winter intensive study periods. Tracer data (from about 30 locations) were sequestered until several source and receptor models were used to predict tracer concentrations. None of the models was successful in predicting the tracer concentrations; squared correlation coefficients between predicted and measured tracer were all less than 0.2, and most were less than 0.1.     

Implications of indicator aggregation methods for global change vulnerability reduction efforts

Composite indices are used to assess and prioritize mitigation and adaptation strategies for addressing the impacts of global environmental change. We evaluate different aggregation tools for creating these indices and their potential effects on mitigation and adaptation efforts. We assess the association of each aggregation tool with different types of trade-offs, risk strategies, and the resulting spatial and statistical distribution of their composite scores. Four aggregation tools are investigated (Weighted Linear Combination, WLC; Ordered Weighted Average, OWA; Data Envelopment Analysis, DEA; Compromise Programming, CP) using an example of vulnerability to flooding in the eastern United States. The choice of aggregation tool affects vulnerability outcomes, decision risk strategies, and the prioritization of vulnerability reduction strategies. DEA produces the highest vulnerability scores, representing a risk averse strategy associated with pessimistic outcomes. WLC implies a neutral and fixed risk strategy. CP produces a range of outcomes from neutral (equivalent to the WLC) to pessimistic, depending on its parameters. OWA offers the highest flexibility to adjust the levels of trade-off and risk strategy, producing a range of vulnerability outcomes, from optimistic to pessimistic. The units of analysis, when prioritized across the different aggregation tools, are more consistent for the top ranked units. However, the differences in rank become substantial as the selection threshold score decreases. To obtain better informed vulnerability reduction strategies, we recommend to (i) address how trade-off and decision risk are embedded in the aggregation tool chosen, and (ii) evaluate their effect in the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation strategies being considered.     

Microbial degradation of usnic acid in the reindeer rumen

Reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) eat and utilize lichens as an important source of energy and nutrients in winter. Lichens synthesize and accumulate a wide variety of phenolic secondary compounds, such as usnic acid, as a defense against herbivores and to protect against damage by UV-light in solar radiation. We have examined where and to what extent these phenolic compounds are degraded in the digestive tract of the reindeer, with particular focus on usnic acid. Three male reindeer were given ad libitum access to a control diet containing no usnic acid for three weeks and then fed lichens ad libitum (primarily Cladonia stellaris) containing 9.1 mg/g DM usnic acid for 4 weeks. Usnic acid intake in reindeer on the lichen diet was 91–117 mg/kg BM/day. In spite of this, no trace of usnic acid or conjugates of usnic acid was found either in fresh rumen fluid, urine, or feces. This suggests that usnic acid is rapidly degraded by rumen microbes, and that it consequently is not absorbed by the animal. This apparent ability to detoxify lichen phenolic compounds may gain increased importance with future enhanced UV-B radiation expected to cause increased protective usnic acid/phenol production in lichens.     

Modeling Flow,Nutrient, and Sediment Delivery from a Large International Watershed Using a Field‐Scale SWAT Model

A large international watershed, the St. Clair‐Detroit River System, containing both extensive urban and agricultural areas, was modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The watershed, located in southeastern Michigan, United States, and southwestern Ontario, Canada, encompasses the St. Clair, Clinton, Detroit (DT), Sydenham (SY), Upper, and Lower Thames subwatersheds. The SWAT input data and model resolution (i.e., hydrologic response units, HRUs), were established to mimic farm boundaries, the first time this has been done for a watershed of this size. The model was calibrated (2007–2015) and validated (2001–2006) with a mix of manual and automatic methods at six locations for flow and water quality at various time scales. The model was evaluated using Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and percent bias and was used to explore major water quality issues. We showed the importance of allowing key parameters to vary among subwatersheds to improve goodness of fit, and the resulting parameters were consistent with subwatershed characteristics. Agricultural sources in the Thames and SY subwatersheds and point sources from DT subwatershed were major contributors of phosphorus. Spatial distribution of phosphorus yields at HRU and subbasin levels identified locations for potential management targeting for both point and nonpoint sources and revealed that in some subwatersheds nonpoint sources are dominated by urban sources.