Use of Probabilistic Methods to Understand the Conservatism in California’s Approach to Assessing Health Risks Posed by Air Contaminants

Many state and federal agencies have prepared risk assessment guidelines, which describe methods for quantifying health risks associated with exposure to vapors and particulates emitted from point and area sources (e.g., California Air Pollution Control Officers Association [CAPCOA] under the Air Toxics “Hot Spots” Act [Assembly Bill 2588] and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPA] under the Clean Air Act). In general, these guidelines recommend or require the use of upper bound “point” estimates for numerous exposure parameters. This methodology yields a single risk estimate, which is intended not to underestimate the true risk and may significantly overstate it. This paper describes a risk assessment of a facility’s airborne emissions using a probabilistic approach, which presents a range and distribution of risk estimates rather than a single point estimate. The health risks to residents living near a food processing facility, as estimated using techniques recommended by California AB2588, are compared to the results of a probabilistic analysis. Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) were identified as the emitted chemicals of concern. The point estimate method recommended by CAPCOA resulted in estimates that were greater than the 99.99th percentile risk predicted by the probabilistic analysis. As shown in other assessments of persistent airborne chemicals, secondary or indirect exposure pathways (i.e., ingestion of beef, ingestion of cow’s milk, and ingestion of mother’s milk) rather than inhalation, were the greatest contributors to risk. In this analysis, the probability distributions for the cancer potency factor and ingestion of cow’s milk had the largest impact on the results of the 33 exposure factors considered.     

Evidence for short-range transport of atmospheric mercury to a rural,inland site

Atmospheric mercury (Hg) species, including gaseous elemental mercury (GEM), reactive gaseous mercury (RGM) and particulate-bound mercury (Hg_p), were monitored near three sites, including a cement plant (monitored in 2007 and 2008), an urban site and a rural site (both monitored in 2005 and 2008). Although the cement plant was a significant source of Hg emissions (for 2008, GEM: 2.20 ± 1.39 ng m^?3, RGM: 25.2 ± 52.8 pg m^?3, Hg_p 80.8 ± 283 pg m^?3), average GEM levels and daytime average dry depositional RGM flux were highest at the rural site, when all three sites were monitored sequentially in 2008 (rural site, GEM: 2.37 ± 1.26 ng m^?3, daytime RGM flux: 29 ± 40 ng m^?2 day^?1). Photochemical conversion of GEM was not the primary RGM source, as highest net RGM gains (75.9 pg m^?3, 99.0 pg m^?3, 149 m^?3) occurred within 3.0–5.3 h, while the theoretical time required was 14–23 h. Instead, simultaneous peaks in RGM, Hg_p, ozone (O₃), nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide in the late afternoon suggested short-range transport of RGM from the urban center to the rural site. The rural site was located more inland, where the average water vapor mixing ratio was lower compared to the other two sites (in 2008, rural: 5.6 ± 1.4 g kg^?1, urban: 9.0 ± 1.1 g kg^?1, cement plant: 8.3 ± 2.2 g kg^?1). Together, these findings suggested short-range transport of O₃ from an urban area contributed to higher RGM deposition at the rural site, while drier conditions helped sustain elevated RGM levels. Results suggested less urbanized environments may be equally or perhaps more impacted by industrial atmospheric Hg emissions, compared to the urban areas from where Hg emissions originated.     

Evaluating policy options for managing diffuse source water quality in Lake Taupo,New Zealand

Environmental policy makers are interested in ways to prevent environmental degradation without significantly limiting economic and social development. Increasingly, market-based instruments are being incorporated into the suite of policy tools to accomplish these aims. However, the lack of information on market-based instruments accessible to non-economists limits understanding of how and when a market-based instrument can be integrated into a traditional policy regime. This paper aims to address the lack of accessible information using a generic screening process for policy instruments demonstrated through application to a non-point source pollution problem in Lake Taupo, New Zealand.     

Male aggression varies with consortship rate and habitat in a dolphin social network

Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology - In many species, outcomes of male duels determine access to females and, ultimately, male reproductive success. Ritualization of behavior in male contests can...     

Sexual conflict in the snake den

Red-sided garter snakes (Thamnophis sirtalis parietalis) court and mate in spring, soon after they emerge from large communal overwintering dens in south-central Manitoba. Because of a massive bias in the operational sex ratio, every female attracts intense courtship from dozens to hundreds of males. We suggest that this courtship constitutes significant ”harassment,” because it delays the females’ dispersal from the den and hence increases their vulnerability to predation. Small females may face the greatest costs, because they are less able to escape from amorous males (who court all females, even juvenile animals). Our measurements show that males are stronger and faster than females. Experimental trials confirm that the locomotor ability of females (especially small females) is greatly reduced by the weight of a courting male. Arena trials show that intense courtship stimulates females to attempt to escape. Remarkably, some females that are too small to produce offspring may nonetheless copulate. This precocious sexual receptivity may benefit juvenile females because copulation renders them unattractive to males, and thus allows them to escape more easily from the den. Female ”tactics” to escape male harassment may explain other puzzling aspects of garter snake biology including size-assortative mating, temporal patterns in dispersal from the den, avoidance of communal dens by young-of-the-year snakes, and female mimicry. Hence, sexual conflict may have influenced important features of the mating system and behavioral ecology of these animals. Received: 8 May 2000 / Revised: 28 July 2000 / Accepted: 30 July 2000     

Quantifying the sensitivity of ephemeral streams to land disturbance activities in arid ecosystems at the watershed scale

Large areas of public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management and located in arid regions of the southwestern United States are being considered for the development of utility-scale solar energy facilities. Land-disturbing activities in these desert, alluvium-filled valleys have the potential to adversely affect the hydrologic and ecologic functions of ephemeral streams. Regulation and management of ephemeral streams typically falls under a spectrum of federal, state, and local programs, but scientifically based guidelines for protecting ephemeral streams with respect to land-development activities are largely nonexistent. This study developed an assessment approach for quantifying the sensitivity to land disturbance of ephemeral stream reaches located in proposed solar energy zones (SEZs). The ephemeral stream assessment approach used publicly-available geospatial data on hydrology, topography, surficial geology, and soil characteristics, as well as high-resolution aerial imagery. These datasets were used to inform a professional judgment-based score index of potential land disturbance impacts on selected critical functions of ephemeral streams, including flow and sediment conveyance, ecological habitat value, and groundwater recharge. The total sensitivity scores (sum of scores for the critical stream functions of flow and sediment conveyance, ecological habitats, and groundwater recharge) were used to identify highly sensitive stream reaches to inform decisions on developable areas in SEZs. Total sensitivity scores typically reflected the scores of the individual stream functions; some exceptions pertain to groundwater recharge and ecological habitats. The primary limitations of this assessment approach were the lack of high-resolution identification of ephemeral stream channels in the existing National Hydrography Dataset, and the lack of mechanistic processes describing potential impacts on ephemeral stream functions at the watershed scale. The primary strength of this assessment approach is that it allows watershed-scale planning for low-impact development in arid ecosystems; the qualitative scoring of potential impacts can also be adjusted to accommodate new geospatial data, and to allow for expert and stakeholder input into decisions regarding the identification and potential avoidance of highly sensitive stream reaches.     

Nature,frequency, and cost of environmental remediation at onshore oil and gas exploration and production sites

This article quantifies the nature, frequency, and cost of environmental remediation activities for onshore oil and gas operations, as determined from over 4,100 environmental remediation cases in Texas, Kansas, New Mexico, and Colorado. For the purpose of this article, “remediation'' refers to cleanup efforts that entail longer‐term site characterization, monitoring, and remedial action beyond the initial spill cleanup or emergency response stage. In addition, data are also presented regarding short‐term spill cleanup activities in two of the four states. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Vegetation Response to Western Juniper Slash Treatments

The expansion of piñon–juniper woodlands the past 100 years in the western United States has resulted in large scale efforts to kill trees and recover sagebrush steppe rangelands. It is important to evaluate vegetation recovery following woodland control to develop best management practices. In this study, we compared two fuel reduction treatments and a cut-and-leave (CUT) treatment used to control western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis spp. occidentalis Hook.) of the northwestern United States. Treatments were; CUT, cut-and-broadcast burn (BURN), and cut-pile-and-burn the pile (PILE). A randomized complete block design was used with five replicates of each treatment located in a curl leaf mahogany (Cercocarpus ledifolius Nutt. ex Torr. & A. Gray)/mountain big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt. spp. vaseyana (Rydb.) Beetle)/Idaho fescue (Festuca idahoensis Elmer) association. In 2010, 4 years after tree control the cover of perennial grasses (PG) [Sandberg’s bluegrass (Poa secunda J. Pres) and large bunchgrasses] were about 4 and 5 % less, respectively, in the BURN (7.1 ± 0.6 %) than the PILE (11.4 ± 2.3 %) and CUT (12.4 ± 1.7 %) treatments (P < 0.0015). In 2010, cover of invasive cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.) was greater in the BURN (6.3 ± 1.0 %) and was 50 and 100 % greater than PILE and CUT treatments, respectively. However, the increase in perennial bunchgrass density and cover, despite cheatgrass in the BURN treatment, mean it unlikely that cheatgrass will persist as a major understory component. In the CUT treatment mahogany cover increased 12.5 % and density increased in from 172 ± 25 to 404 ± 123 trees/ha. Burning, killed most or all of the adult mahogany, and mahogany recovery consisted of 100 and 67 % seedlings in the PILE and BURN treatments, respectively. After treatment, juniper presence from untreated small trees (<1 m tall; PILE and CUT treatments) and seedling emergence (all treatments) represented 25–33 % of pre-treatment tree density. To maintain recovery of herbaceous, shrub, and mahogany species additional control of reestablished juniper will be necessary.