NEW METHODS OF MODELING WATER AVAILABILITY FOR AGRICULTURE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE: THE U.S. CORNBELT1

ABSTRACT: This paper reports on new methods of linking climate change scenarios with hydrologic, agricultural an water planning models to study future water availability for agriculture, an essential element of sustainability. The study is based on the integration of models of water supply and demand, and of crop growth and irrigation management. Consistent modeling assumptions, available databases, and scenario simulations are used to capture a range of possible future conditions. The linked models include WATBAL for water supply; CERES, SOYGRO, and CROPWAT for crop and irrigation modeling; and WEAP for water demand forecasting, planning and evaluation. These models are applied to the U.S. Cornbelt using forecasts of climate change, agricultural production, population and GDP growth. Results suggest that, at least in the near term, the relative abundance of water for agriculture can be maintained under climate change conditions. However, increased water demands from urban growth, increases in reservoir evaporation and increases in crop consumptive use must be accommodated by timely improvements in crop, irrigation and drainage technology, water management, and institutions. These improvements are likely to require substantial resources and expertise. In the highly irrigated basins of the region, irrigation demand greatly exceeds industrial and municipal demands. When improvements in irrigation efficiency are tested, these basins respond by reducing demand and lessening environmental stress with an improvement in system reliability, effects particularly evident under a high technology scenario. Rain-fed lands in the Cornbelt are not forced to invest in irrigation, but there is some concern about increased water-logging during the spring and consequent required increased investment in agricultural drainage. One major water region in the Cornbelt also provides a useful caveat: change will not necessarily be continuous and monotonic. Under one GCM scenario for the 2010s, the region shows a significant decrease in system reliability, while the scenario for the 2020s shows an increase.     

The effects of gender in organizational justice perception

Two studies were used to examine the moderating effect of gender on the justice–outcome relationships. Contrary to hypothesis, gender moderates the relationship between distributive justice and trust in supervisor in sample 1. It is possible that women are concentrating more on distributive issues rather than procedural justice issues in order to address past pay discrepancies. Further, gender did not moderate any other justice–outcome relationships. These results may indicate a recent trend toward work value similarity and narrowing of gender differences. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Beliefs and fears and Type A behavior: implications for academic performance and psychiatric health disorder symptoms

This study begins by examining the dimensionality of the Type A behavior pattern using four frequently employed self-report measures. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses identified nine meaningful factors (dimensions) across the four scales. A measure of hostility was added since hostility has been found to be highly predictive of coronary heart disease and originally was included in Rosenman, Swan and Carmelli's (1988) definition of Type A behavior. Supporting the utility of examining Type A behavior as a multidimensional personality construct, the Type A dimensions and hostility reveal differential effects on academic performance and a general health or psychiatric disorder symptom profile. Achievement striving is positively related to academic performance, and time pressure, anger, and hostility seem to significantly increase somatic complaints, anxiety, and depression. In addition, there is support for Price's (1982) conceptualization that some cognitive beliefs and fears promote the development and maintenance of Type A behavior. As expected, the belief and fear that one must prove oneself or else be judged unworthy relates positively to work involvement and achievement striving, but it also directly and positively impacts the overt Type A behaviors of hurry and time pressure and two psychiatric health disorder symptoms, performance dysfunction and anxiety. Lastly, implications and future research directions are discussed.     

Bacterial communities of the marine sponges Hymeniacidon heliophila and Polymastia janeirensis and their environment in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

In this study we performed a survey of the bacterial communities associated with the Western Atlantic demosponges Hymeniacidon heliophila and Polymastia janeirensis, based on 16S rRNA sequencing and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). We compared diversity and composition of the sponge-associated bacteria to those of environmental bacteria, represented by free-living bacterioplankton and by bacteria attached to organic particulate matter in superficial sediments. Partial bacterial 16S rRNA sequences from seawater, sediment, and sponges were retrieved by PCR, cloning, and sequencing. Sequences were subjected to rarefaction analyses, phylogenetic tree construction, and LIBSHUFF quantitative statistics to verify coverage and similarity between libraries. Community structure of the free-living bacterioplankton was phylogenetically different from that of the sponge-associated bacterial assemblages. On the other hand, some sediment-attached bacteria were also found in the sponge bacterial community, indicating that sponges may incorporate bacteria together with sediment particles. Rare and few prokaryotic morphotypes were found in TEM analyses of sponge mesohyl matrix of both species. Molecular data indicate that bacterial richness and diversity decreases from bacterioplankton, to particulate organic sediment, and to H. heliophila and P. janeirensis. Sponges from Rio de Janeiro harbor a pool of novel and exclusive sponge-associated bacterial taxa. Sponge-associated bacterial communities are composed of both taxons shared by many sponge groups and by species-specific bacteria.     

Current and historic distribution and abundance of the inarticulated brachiopod, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Lingula reevii</Emphasis> Davidson (1880), in Kaneohe Bay,Oahu, Hawaii,USA

The inarticulated brachiopod, Lingula reevii Davidson (1880) is a filter-feeding invertebrate that burrows vertically in sandy or mixed sediments. Its only recorded occurrence is from Kaneohe Bay, Oahu, Hawaii, southern Japan, and Ambon, Indonesia. Past surveys of Kaneohe Bay populations suggested a distinct decrease in abundance following the diversion of sewage effluent from the bay in 1978/1979. In the summer of 2004 and 2007, visual surveys were conducted in areas of historical L. reevii abundance as well as in areas appearing to have suitable habitat. In 2004, approximately 2,950 m² at 20 sites within the bay were surveyed using quantitative belt transecting methods. A maximum density of 4 Lingula/m² was observed, a decrease from previous maximum estimates of 500 individuals/m² (Worcester, Dissertation, Zoology Department, University of Hawai′i, pp 49, 1969) and 100 individuals/m² (Emig, J Exp Mar Biol Ecol 52:47–61, 1981). When these 20 sites were revisited in 2007, many had fewer or no L. reevii; therefore, broader scale presence/absence surveys were conducted at 16 additional sites in the bay (also surveyed in 2004). The highest density of L. reevii found in 2007 was 0.94 individuals/m². The continued decline in abundance of L. reevii in Kaneohe Bay may be due, in addition to decreased organic enrichment from diversion of sewage discharge almost 30 years ago, to the more recent reduction of suitable habitat by the invasion of mat-forming alien algae species.     

The effects of salt exclusion during ice formation on circulation in lakes

Laboratory experiments have been performed to investigate the effects of salt exclusion on the behaviour of lakes with salinities up to 8 g L^?1. At these salinities the freezing temperature is less than the temperature of maximum density and, unlike sea-ice, a reverse temperature stratification forms beneath the ice that can support at least some of the excluded salt. Temperature time series at four depths showed that salt exclusion drives cascades of localised overturning, while the persistence of reverse temperature stratification indicated that mixing was not complete. While our array of temperature sensors had insufficient spatial resolution to provide full details of the flow, we hypothesize that: at salinities of 1 and 2 g L^?1  salt is released relatively uniformly and forms a layer of elevated salinity immediately below the ice, which supports double-diffusive salt-fingering; and at salinities of 4 and 8 g L^?1, salt plumes penetrate the reverse stratification. After the ice melted, a relatively fresh surface layer formed above a more saline layer, sufficient to suppress spring turnover. Our measurements compare favourably with field observations from lakes, and highlight the importance of salt exclusion on biogeochemical processes in lakes.     

Bringing analysis of gender and social–ecological resilience together in small-scale fisheries research: Challenges and opportunities

The demand for gender analysis is now increasingly orthodox in natural resource programming, including that for small-scale fisheries. Whilst the analysis of social–ecological resilience has made valuable contributions to integrating social dimensions into research and policy-making on natural resource management, it has so far demonstrated limited success in effectively integrating considerations of gender equity. This paper reviews the challenges in, and opportunities for, bringing a gender analysis together with social–ecological resilience analysis in the context of small-scale fisheries research in developing countries. We conclude that rather than searching for a single unifying framework for gender and resilience analysis, it will be more effective to pursue a plural solution in which closer engagement is fostered between analysis of gender and social-ecological resilience whilst preserving the strengths of each approach. This approach can make an important contribution to developing a better evidence base for small-scale fisheries management and policy.     

Continuous Monitoring of Ultrafine,Fine, and Coarse Particles in a Residence for 18 Months in 1999-2000

Abstract

Continuous monitors were employed for 18 months in an occupied townhouse to measure ultrafine, fine, and coarse particles; air change rates; wind speed and direction; temperature; and relative humidity (RH). A main objective was to document short-term and long-term variation in indoor air concentrations of size-resolved particles (0.01-20 μm) caused by (1) diurnal and seasonal variation of outdoor air concentrations and meteorological variables, (2) indoor sources such as cooking and using candles, and (3) activities affecting air change rates such as opening windows and using fans. A second objective was to test and compare available instruments for their suitability in providing real-time estimates of particle levels and ancillary variables.

Despite different measuring principles, the instruments employed in this study agreed reasonably well for particles less than 10 μm in diameter. The three instruments measuring fine and coarse particles (aerodynamic diameter between 0.3 and 20 μm) agreed to within 30% in their overall estimates of total volume. Two of these instruments employed optical scattering, and the third used an aerodynamic acceleration principle. However, several lines of evidence indicated that the instrument employing aerodynamic acceleration overestimated concentrations for particle diameters greater than 10 μm. A fourth instrument measuring ultrafine and accumulation-mode particles (0.01-1 μm) was operated with two different inlets providing somewhat different particle size ranges. The two inlets agreed in the ultrafine region (<0.1 μm) but diverged increasingly for larger particles (up to 0.445 μm).

Indoor sources affecting ultrafine particle concentrations were observed 22% of the time, and sources affecting fine and coarse particle concentrations were observed 12 and 15% of the time, respectively. When an indoor source was operating, particle concentrations for different sizes ranged from 2 to 20 times the average concentrations when no indoor source was apparent. Indoor sources, such as cooking with natural gas, and simple physical activities, such as walking, accounted for a majority (50-90%) of the ultrafine and coarse particle concentrations, whereas outdoor sources were more important for accumulation-mode particles between 0.1 and 1 um in diameter. Averaged for the entire year and including no periods when indoor sources were apparent, the number distribution was bimodal, with a peak at ~10 nm (possibly smaller), a shallow minimum at ~14 nm, and a second broad peak at ~68 nm. The volume distribution was also bimodal, with a broad peak at ~200 nm, a minimum at ~1.2 μm, and then an upward slope again through the remaining size fractions.

A database was created on a 5-min averaging time basis. It contains more than 90,000 measurements by two of the instruments and approximately 30,000 by the two optical scattering instruments. About 4500 hour-long average air change rates were also calculated throughout the year using a dedicated gas chromatograph with electron capture detection (GC/ECD). At high air change rates [>0.8 air changes per hour (hr^?1)], particle concentrations were either elevated (when no source was present) or depressed (when an indoor source was operating) by factors of up to 2 compared with low air change rates.