Changing Species Richness and Composition in Canadian National Parks

Abstract: Canada's national parks and their surrounding areas differ markedly in size, climate, vegetation, and extent of human development. We tested the extent to which total species richness, native species richness, and the number of extirpations and introductions of terrestrial vertebrates were correlated with each of these factors. To do this, we used surveys of park fauna from the present and from the time of park establishment. Richness, extirpations, and introductions were all strongly related to climate. After we controlled for climate, smaller parks had higher rates of species loss than larger parks. Land-use patterns (forest cover and fragmentation, roads, etc.) within parks were strongly correlated with land use in the regions surrounding the parks, showing that parks have not been isolated from regional development. Richness and extirpations within parks were generally more strongly related to regional characteristics than to the characteristics of the parks themselves. Species richness and numbers of introduced species were higher in parks found in landscapes with greater fragmentation. Frequencies of extirpations were less clearly related to human-influenced habitat characteristics. Introductions and extinctions most often involved game species or species directly associated with human activities. There is little evidence of subtle ecological effects being responsible for species loss. Our results suggest that management should focus on direct human interventions, such as hunting, introduction of game species, and habitat fragmentation, in parks and surrounding areas.     

Hedonic housing prices and the demand for clean air

This paper investigates the methodological problems associated with the use of housing market data to measure the willingness to pay for clean air. With the use of a hedonic housing price model and data for the Boston metropolitan area, quantitative estimates of the willingness to pay for air quality improvements are generated. Marginal air pollution damages (as revealed in the housing market) are found to increase with the level of air pollution and with household income. The results are relatively sensitive to the specification of the hedonic housing price equation, but insensitive to the specification of the air quality demand equation.     

Does contrast between eggshell ground and spot coloration affect egg rejection?

Obligate avian brood parasitic species impose the costs of incubating foreign eggs and raising young upon their unrelated hosts. The most common host defence is the rejection of parasitic eggs from the nest. Both egg colours and spot patterns influence egg rejection decisions in many host species, yet no studies have explicitly examined the role of variation in spot coloration. We studied the American robin Turdus migratorius, a blue-green unspotted egg-laying host of the brown-headed cowbird Molothrus ater, a brood parasite that lays non-mimetic spotted eggs. We examined host responses to model eggs with variable spot coloration against a constant robin-mimetic ground colour to identify patterns of rejection associated with perceived contrast between spot and ground colours. By using avian visual modelling, we found that robins were more likely to reject eggs whose spots had greater chromatic (hue) but not achromatic (brightness) contrast. Therefore, egg rejection decision rules in the American robin may depend on the colour contrast between parasite eggshell spot and host ground coloration. Our study also suggests that egg recognition in relation to spot coloration, like ground colour recognition, is tuned to the natural variation of avian eggshell spot colours but not to unnatural spot colours.     

Sources and Delivery of Nutrients to the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico from Streams in the South‐Central United States1

Rebich, Richard A., Natalie A. Houston, Scott V. Mize, Daniel K. Pearson, Patricia B. Ging, and C. Evan Hornig, 2011. Sources and Delivery of Nutrients to the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico From Streams in the South‐Central United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):1061‐1086. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00583.x Abstract: SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models were developed to estimate nutrient inputs [total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP)] to the northwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico from streams in the South‐Central United States (U.S.). This area included drainages of the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas‐White‐Red, and Texas‐Gulf hydrologic regions. The models were standardized to reflect nutrient sources and stream conditions during 2002. Model predictions of nutrient loads (mass per time) and yields (mass per area per time) generally were greatest in streams in the eastern part of the region and along reaches near the Texas and Louisiana shoreline. The Mississippi River and Atchafalaya River watersheds, which drain nearly two‐thirds of the conterminous U.S., delivered the largest nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico, as expected. However, the three largest delivered TN yields were from the Trinity River/Galveston Bay, Calcasieu River, and Aransas River watersheds, while the three largest delivered TP yields were from the Calcasieu River, Mermentau River, and Trinity River/Galveston Bay watersheds. Model output indicated that the three largest sources of nitrogen from the region were atmospheric deposition (42%), commercial fertilizer (20%), and livestock manure (unconfined, 17%). The three largest sources of phosphorus were commercial fertilizer (28%), urban runoff (23%), and livestock manure (confined and unconfined, 23%).     

A strong test of a maximum entropy model of trait-based community assembly

We evaluate the predictive power and generality of Shipley's maximum entropy (maxent) model of community assembly in the context of 96 quadrats over a 120-km2 area having a large (79) species pool and strong gradients. Quadrats were sampled in the herbaceous understory of ponderosa pine forests in the Coconino National Forest, Arizona, U.S.A. The maxent model accurately predicted species relative abundances when observed community-weighted mean trait values were used as model constraints. Although only 53% of the variation in observed relative abundances was associated with a combination of 12 environmental variables, the maxent model based only on the environmental variables provided highly significant predictive ability, accounting for 72% of the variation that was possible given these environmental variables. This predictive ability largely surpassed that of nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) or detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) ordinations. Using cross-validation with 1000 independent runs, the median correlation between observed and predicted relative abundances was 0.560 (the 2.5% and 97.5% quantiles were 0.045 and 0.825). The qualitative predictions of the model were also noteworthy: dominant species were correctly identified in 53% of the quadrats, 83% of rare species were correctly predicted to have a relative abundance of < 0.05, and the median predicted relative abundance of species actually absent from a quadrat was 5 x 10(-5).     

Is there a double-dividend from anti-sprawl policies?

This paper examines the welfare effects of anti-sprawl policies, such as development tax, in a simple spatial explicit urban model with two market failures - urban decline at the city core and underprovision of open space amenities at the urban fringe - and pre-existing distortionary property tax, used to fund public services and improvements to mitigate urban decline. Consistent with prior double-dividend literature, there is a tax interaction effect that occurs between the development tax and the pre-existing property tax. However, there are two fundamental differences between the tax interaction effect identified here and that of prior literature. Ours one has two components: First, there is a cost-side tax interaction effect that is ‘spatially’ concentrated at the urban fringe, as only agents at the urban fringe alter their behavior in response to the development tax. Second, there is also a benefit-side tax interaction effect, as increases in open space at the urban fringe are capitalized into housing prices throughout the city. In contrast to prior literature, we find that the empirical importance of the combined tax interaction effect is of substantially less importance and, as a consequence, the likelihood of a ‘double-dividend’ is higher than in prior studies. Further, we show that the development tax should be part of the local tax system, even in the absence of open space benefits.     

Validation of a multispecies forest dynamics model using 50-year growth from Eucalyptus forests in eastern Australia

One of the key problems confronting ecological forecasting is the validation of computer models. Here we report successful validation of a forest dynamics model Ecosystem Dynamics Simulator (EDS), adapted from the JABOWA-II forest succession model. This model and many variants derived from it have successfully simulated growth dynamics of uneven-aged mixed forests under changing environment with a moderate amount of input data. But rarely are adequate time-series data available for quantitative model validation. This study tested the performance of EDS in projecting the tree density, tree diameter at breast height (dbh), tree height, basal area and aboveground biomass of uneven-aged, mixed species sclerophyll forests in St. Mary state forests of eastern Australia. The test data were collected between 1951 and 2005. Every tree was uniquely numbered, tagged and measured in consecutive re-measurements. Projected growth attributes were compared with those observed in an independent validation dataset. The model produced satisfactory projections of tree density (91.7%), dbh (92.3%), total tree height (82.8%), basal area (89.3%) and aboveground biomass (87.6%) compared to the observed attributes. These results suggest that the EDS model can provide reasonable capability in projecting growth dynamics of uneven-aged, mixed species sclerophyll forests.