THE LONG-RANGE ENERGY PERSPECTIVE

The author reviews general questions affecting energy projections and goes on to examine reserve forecasts for each type of energy. The last part of the paper considers consumption forecasts and makes an assessment of the likely situation in the year 2000.     

The optimum population and an affluent society

The population optimum is formulated such that income-related shifts are permitted in rates of substitution between arguments in the welfare function. Under plausible assumptions, when income, the number of people, open space, leisure, and pollution are explicitly included in the welfare function, and even though the income elasticity of added children is positive, families will tend to have fewer children as incomes rise, while enjoying more open space and reduced levels of pollution. A shift toward leisure tends to have the partial effect of increasing the optimum. The model predicts that consumption will become increasingly extra-market as incomes rise.     

A simulation model for the management of low density recreational areas

In order to take account of the congestion externalities associated with increased use intensity during a given period at a low density recreational resource, it is necessary to determine the effects of alternative use levels on the expected quality of each individual's experience. This paper describes a simulation model for wilderness recreation designed to provide such measures. In order to illustrate the model it is applied to the Spanish Peaks Areas in Montana.